Notes

INTRODUCTION

1. Point Arguello, California, was considered second only to Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, in terms of its oil in place—up to 3 billion barrels. See Draft Environmental Report prepared by Arthur D. Little, July 9, 1984, https://play.google.com/books/reader?id=Li03AQAAMAAJ&hl=en&pg=GBS.PA1

2. For an extensive history of the 1970s oil crises and how they shaped politics, see Meg Jacobs, Panic at the Pump: The Energy Crisis and the Transformation of American Politics in the 1970s (New York: Hill and Wang, 2016).

3. Thomas W. Lippman, “Oil War Fought on U.S. Shores Approaches an Uneasy Armistice,” Washington Post, April 9, 1993, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1993/04/09/oil-war-fought-on-us-shores-approaches-an-uneasy-armistice/dcf5e143-09b3-4057-a6f7-3e739a613901/

4. On January 29, 1969, Union Oil Company’s (UNOCAL) offshore Platform A experienced a blowout that continued leaking for months into the ocean floor through existing faults and fractures. See Kate Wheeling and Max Ufberg, “‘The Ocean Is Boiling’: The Complete Oral History of the 1969 Santa Barbara Oil Spill,” Pacific Standard, November 7, 2018, https://psmag.com/news/the-ocean-is-boiling-the-complete-oral-history-of-the-1969-santa-barbara-oil-spill

5. Jon Hamilton, “How California’s Worst Oil Spill Turned Beaches Black and the Nation Green,” NPR, January 28, 2019, https://www.npr.org/2019/01/28/688219307/how-californias-worst-oil-spill-turned-beaches-black-and-the-nation-green#

6. “October 28. 1980 Debate Transcript,” Commission on Presidential Debates, https://www.debates.org/voter-education/debate-transcripts/october-28-1980-debate-transcript/; Offshore Leasing: Key to U.S. Oil Security, Heritage Foundation, September 19, 1985, https://www.heritage.org/trade/report/offshore-oil-leasing-key-us-energy-security. Oil security is not simply a domestic issue; it also plays a major role in foreign policy. See Jeff Colgan, Petro-Aggression: When Oil Causes War (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013).

7. The Reagan Ranch, Rancho del Cielo, which is now owned and operated by a foundation, is located less than 10 miles as the crow flies to Gaviota. See https://reaganranch.yaf.org/

8. In 1980, Jackson Browne built a home in Hollister Ranch, an exclusive, secluded coastal parcel in Santa Barbara. (A couple of years later, Chevron sought permits to build an oil and gas pipeline through Hollister Ranch.) For decades, he played dozens of concerts for Santa Barbara activists who were fighting oil development (among other efforts). See https://www.independent.com/2018/08/02/interview-jackson-browne/. In 1985, Bonnie Raitt teamed up with Jackson Browne, and together they performed at least two “oil initiative” concerts in Santa Barbara. See Bonnie Raitt Benefit History, 1980s, https://www.bonnieraitt.com/content/benefit-history-1980s. Also see Get Oil Out!, https://getoilout.org/

9. See pp. 34 (selective catalytic reduction [SCR] to mitigate nitrogen oxide emissions), 300 (Get Oil Out! comments), 301–2, 319, 340, 343 (Hollister Ranch comments) in the Response to Comments prepared by A. D. Little for Santa Barbara County, et al., “Point Arguello Field and Gaviota Processing Facility Area Study and Chevron/Texaco Development Plans EIR/EIS,” October 11, 1984, https://play.google.com/books/reader?id=5CE3AQAAMAAJ&hl=en&pg=GBS.RA2-PP2

10. US Department of Interior, “Pacific Summary Report/Index,” OCS Information Report, MMS-86-0060, 1986, https://play.google.com/books/reader?id=4CFPAAAAMAAJ&hl=en&pg=GBS.PP2

11. See Bureau of Ocean Energy Management map tracking oil and gas pipelines from Pt. Arguello’s three platforms to landfall and then onshore to the Gaviota plant: https://www.boem.gov/sites/default/files/oil-and-gas-energy-program/Leasing/Regional-Leasing/Pacific-Region/Leasing/pacific-ocs-map.pdf

12. Plains Exploration and Production Company, “Revisions to the Platform Hidalgo Development and Production Plan to Include Development of the Western Half NW/4 of Lease OCS-P 0450,” submitted to US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, October 2012, https://www.boem.gov/sites/default/files/about-boem/BOEM-Regions/Pacific-Region/DPPs/5C1---2012-10-Platform-Hidalgo-DPP-Revison-NW-4th-of-Lease-OCS-P-0450.pdf

13. In 2020, oil futures temporarily sank to negative prices in response to the global shutdown during the coronavirus pandemic, and real-time prices fell to similarly low levels as 1999. See “Crude Oil Prices – 70 Year Historical Chart,” Macrotrends, https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

14. “Chevron Sells 26% Stake in Oilfield,” Reuters, July 6, 1999, https://www.nytimes.com/1999/07/06/business/chevron-sells-26-stake-in-oilfield.html; “FCX Completes Acquisition of Plains Exploration & Production,” News Release, Freeport-McMoRan, May 13, 2013, https://investors.fcx.com/investors/news-releases/news-release-details/2013/FCX-Completes-Acquisition-of-Plains-Exploration--Production-Co/default.aspx

15. The Plains All American Pipeline was a joint venture with Chevron, Texaco, and Sun Oil. See US Securities and Exchange Commission filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1070423/000110465916100030/a15-24557_110k.htm

16. For a map of interconnecting Line 901 (that ruptured) and Line 903 and the oil and gas production assets they serve, see http://curious.kcrw.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/energy_division_map_0816.png. Note that the 24-inch Line 901 was constructed in 1987 along the Gaviota coast to service the crude produced by several oil companies’ offshore platforms. Both the pipeline that ruptured (Line 901) and Point Arguello’s adjoining pipeline (Line 903) had to be insulated so the viscous, heavy oil would remain heated to make it flow. However, thermally insulated pipelines are known to have aggressive corrosion risks. Investigators found Line 901 to have corrosion similar to that on cars when the paint bubbles and flakes off. Ultimately, moisture migrated along the pipeline (Line 901) to the lowest local elevation point and created an electrochemical corrosion cell that ruptured. Regulators found that “on coated, insulated and buried pipe, the ‘corrosion product’ grows and remains in close proximity to the pipe steel . . . similar to the type of corrosion on vehicles, in which the corrosion under bubbled paint can be easily flaked off.” See US Department of Transportation, “Failure Investigation Report,” May 2016, https://www.phmsa.dot.gov/sites/phmsa.dot.gov/files/docs/PHMSA_Failure_Investigation_Report_Plains_Pipeline_LP_Line_901_Public.pdf

17. Kristen Hays, “Regulators Tell Plains to Purge Shut California Oil Pipeline,” Reuters, November 13, 2015, https://www.reuters.com/article/plains-all-amer-pipeline-california/regulators-tell-plains-to-purge-shut-california-oil-pipeline-idUSL1N1382UV20151113

18. California State Lands Commission, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), and Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), A Citizen’s Guide to Offshore Oil and Gas Decommissioning in Federal Waters Off California, 2019, https://www.slc.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/IDWG-Decomm-Guide-FINAL-July-2019.pdf

19. Steve Coll, “Getting the International Oil Companies to Address Climate Change,” Unconventional Oil Symposium, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 9, 2013, https://carnegieendowment.org/2013/01/09/getting-international-oil-companies-to-address-climate-change-pub-50588

20. Steve Coll, Private Empire: ExxonMobil and American Power (New York: Penguin Press, 2012).

21. Steve Graham, “Svante Arrhenius,” National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Observatory, January 18, 2000, https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Arrhenius

22. Akshat Rathi, “A 1912 News Article Ominously Forecasted the Catastrophic Effects of Fossil Fuels on Climate Change,” Quartz, October 24, 2016, https://qz.com/817354/scientists-have-been-forecasting-that-burning-fossil-fuels-will-cause-climate-change-as-early-as-1882/

23. Rob Monroe, “The Keeling Curve,” Scripps Institution of Oceanography, April 3, 2013, https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2013/04/03/the-history-of-the-keeling-curve/

24. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Monthly Average Mauna Loa CO2,” Global Monitoring Lab, https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

25. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), “Global CH4 Monthly Means,” Global Monitoring Laboratory, https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/. Compared to 1,626.1 parts per million in July 1983, as reported by NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories (ESRL) data.

26. Robert D. Hershey Jr., “Experts Predict California Oil Field Will Be Biggest Find since 1968,” New York Times, November 15, 1982, https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1982/11/15/032610.html?pageNumber=1; and as recently as 2018, the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) published a paper about the nearly 1 billion barrels of oil in California’s Santa Maria Basin, the part of the extensive Monterey formation that contains the Point Arguello oil field; see James Ballard, “Undeveloped Petroleum Potential of the Offshore Santa Maria Basin, California,” AAPG, April 23, 2018, http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/pdfz/documents/2018/11067ballard/ndx_ballard.pdf.html

27. In addition, 3D seismic mapping has led to the discovery of many more oil and gas reservoirs.

28. Adam Brandt et al., “Climate-Wise Choices in a World of Oil Abundance,” Environmental Research Letters, April 5, 2018, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaae76

29. As recently as 2010, scholars were writing about the looming global energy crisis and describing oil’s nearly singular function in terms of miles driven. See Hewitt Crane, Edwin Kinderman, and Ripudaman Malhotra, A Cubic Mile of Oil (New York: Oxford University Press, 2010).

30. “Global Oils,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012, https://carnegieendowment.org/2012/12/18/global-oils/faw9

31. Bruce J. Bilodeau, Guido A. Haug, and Stephen P. Thurston, “Oil and Gas Development in West Coast 1985,” American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin 90, no. 10 (October 1986), https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/aapgbull/article-abstract/70/10/1303/38108/Oil-and-Gas-Developments-in-West-Coast-in-19851?redirectedFrom=fulltext

32. Refinery retrofits were significant to handle Point Arguello oil. Estimated capital costs were $5 billion with increased operating costs of nearly $1 billion per year, in today’s dollars. See https://play.google.com/store/books/details?id=HXI5AQAAMAAJ&rdid=book-HXI5AQAAMAAJ&rdot=1

33. Chevron, USA, “Development and Production Plan: Platform Hidalgo and Associated Pipelines OCS Lease P 0450 (Supplement to Point Arguello OPP),” May 1984, https://www.boem.gov/sites/default/files/about-boem/BOEM-Regions/Pacific-Region/DPPs/5C2---1984-05-Platform-Hidalgo-and-Pipelines-Development---Production-Plan-Lease-OCS-P-0450.pdf

34. Methane was likely captured in the fugitive emission controls that were required to be installed (as long as they were designed to contain this smallest hydrocarbon). However, the regulators might have placed more stringent emission limits if methane was expressly counted and reported. Including methane would also have informed present-day climate accounting and mitigation strategies.

35. Compare the OCI+ GHG estimates for producing, processing, and shipping a barrel of Saudi Ghawar conventional oil (59 kg CO2e/BOE) to a barrel of California South Belridge depleted oil (230 kg CO2e/BOE) or Kuwait Ratawi medium oil (161 kg CO2e/BOE). Although it is not modeled, Point Arguello oil GHGs are expected to lie somewhere in between these two crudes. See https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#analysis?xSelect=ghgTotal&ySelect=industryGHG&groupSelect=Oil&oiltypeSelect=Depleted%20Oil,Light%20Oil,Medium%20Oil

36. Chevron (as operator for its partners, Phillips Petroleum, Union Pacific Resources, and Impkemix) discovered the Point Arguello oil field in 1981. Additional companies have bought and sold interests in the Point Arguello project since its discovery: Texaco, Pennzoil, Unocal, Getty Oil, Whiting Petroleum, Sun Exploration and Production, Oryx Energy, Koch Industries, Oxbow Energy, Devon Energy, Arguello Production, Kerr-McGee, Harvest Energy, Delta Petroleum, Champlin Petroleum, Simmons Santa Barbara, Largo, Four Corners Pipeline, Venoco, Plains Exploration and Production, and Freeport-McMoRan. Note that many of these companies have since merged or gone out of business. Various sources identify the myriad past Point Arguello partners, including https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-01-27-fi-694-story.html; https://www.nytimes.com/1999/07/06/business/chevron-sells-26-stake-in-oilfield.html; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/821483/000126327903000010/ex1022.txt

37. Seven international oil companies dominated the global petroleum industry from the 1940s to the 1970s, including BP (originally the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company and later the British Petroleum Company), Shell, Chevron (originally Standard Oil of California or SoCal), Gulf (merged into Chevron), Texaco (merged into Chevron), Exxon Mobil (originally Standard Oil of New Jersey or Esso), and Socony (Standard Oil Company of New York that became Mobil and then merged into Exxon), discussed in more detail in Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon, Two Billion Cars (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009). Also see “The Secret of the Seven Sisters,” Aljazeera, April 28, 2013, https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/specialseries/2013/04/201344105231487582.html

38. “Are National Oil Companies the New International Oil Companies?,” KPMG, October 2018, https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2018/08/are-national-oil-companies-the-new-international-oil-companies.pdf

39. “California Oil Refinery History, “ California Energy Commission, https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/californias-petroleum-market/californias-oil-refineries/california-oil

40. The agencies involved included US Minerals Management Service (lead), Santa Barbara County Resource Management Department (lead), California Lands Commission, California Coastal Commission, and California Secretary of Environmental Affairs. A cadre of local agencies also were involved under the banner of Santa Barbara County.

41. In 1979, Chevron paid $333.6 million for the right to develop and drill the Point Arguello oil field. This was the most expensive oil lease in US history at the time. See Thomas C. Hayes, “Alaska Spill Jolts Chevron, Too,” New York Times, October 26, 1989, https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1989/10/26/461089.html?pageNumber=81

42. Note: Since the platforms were in federal waters, which is over 3 nautical miles offshore in the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), the proceeds were split between state and federal coffers. Ongoing legal fights challenged the percentages given to each government entity. See William F. Northrop, “Report to the Legislature on Proposed Oil and Gas Lease Sale Program, Pt. Conception – Pt. Arguello, Santa Barbara County,” State Lands Commission, December 1981, https://www.slc.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/1981-ProposedOilGas.pdf

43. Note that countries, like Russia, that generate vast sums of government revenue from the sale of oil and gas do not disclose actual sums. See Alexander Malden and Joseph Williams, “Generating Government Revenue from the Sale of Oil and Gas: New Data and the Case for Improved Commodity Trading Transparency,” Natural Resources Governance Institute, January 2018, https://resourcegovernance.org/sites/default/files/documents/generating-government-revenue-from-sale-of-oils-and-gas_0.pdf

44. While powerful oil and gas interests can influence political outcomes or induce corruption, this does not imply that petroleum products do not advantage everyday people. This is a conundrum that civil society actors continue to wrestle with. See Alexandra Gillies, Crude Intentions: How Oil Corruption Contaminates the World (New York: Oxford University Press, 2020).

45. William Hafker (an ExxonMobil retiree) was working for an industry competitor in Santa Barbara in those formative years while I was permitting Point Arguello. He was instrumental in helping us formulate this climate plan. See Deborah Gordon and Stephen D. Ziman, “Petroleum Companies Need a Credible Climate Plan,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 2018, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Gordon_Petro_Companies_Need_Climate_Plan_Nov2018.pdf

46. Others argue that society needs better information and transparency to avoid future unnecessary price hikes and crashes. See Blake Clayton, Market Madness: A Century of Oil Panics, Crises, and Crashes (New York: Oxford University Press, 2015).

47. For more information on science-based targets see https://sciencebasedtargets.org/

48. Deborah Gordon and Madhav Acharya, “Oil Shake Up: Refining Transitions in a Low-Carbon Economy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 2018, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Gordon_DrivingChange_Article_April2018_final.pdf

49. For methodology and sample oil and gas resources modeled, see Oil Climate Index + Gas Preview, Beta Web Tool Under Development, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/

50. International Energy Agency, “Global Primary Energy, Electricity Generation, Final Consumption and CO2 Emissions by Fuel, 2018,” January 2020, https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-primary-energy-electricity-generation-final-consumption-and-co2-emissions-by-fuel-2018

51. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2018, Table 1.5, https://www.iea.org/weo2018/

52. Frank Bruni, “She Predicted the Coronavirus. What Does She Foresee Next?,” New York Times, May 2, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/02/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-prediction-laurie-garrett.html?referringSource=articleShare;; Laurie Garrett, The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance (New York: Macmillan, 1994), https://www.lauriegarrett.com/the-coming-plague

53. Deborah Gordon, “Not All Oil Is Equal. As Economies Recover, Which Oils Should Stay in the Ground?,” Brink, June 21, 2020, https://www.brinknews.com/not-all-oil-is-equal-which-types-should-oil-companies-turn-back-on-as-the-economy-recovers-paris-agreement-climate-change-post-covid/

54. See, for example, World Health Organization, “Climate Change and Infectious Disease,” July 2003, https://www.who.int/globalchange/climate/en/chapter6.pdf;; Julie Kirkwood, “Climate Change Is Shifting the Course of Infectious Disease,” Clinical Laboratory News, August 1, 2018, https://www.aacc.org/publications/cln/articles/2018/august/climate-change-is-shifting-the-course-of-infectious-diseases; Cyril Caminade, K. Marie McIntyre, and Anne E. Jones, “Impact of Recent and Future Climate Change on Vector-Borne Diseases,” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1436, no. 1 (2019): 157–73, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6378404/

CHAPTER 1

1. Council on Foreign Relations, “Oil Dependence and U.S. Foreign Policy, 1850–2017,” https://www.cfr.org/timeline/oil-dependence-and-us-foreign-policy

2. Bjorn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), 2001.

3. Jimmy Carter, Presidential Debate, C-SPAN 2, 1976, http://missliberty.com/jimmy-carter-the-world-will-run-out-of-oil-by-2011/

4. Graham Jones, “World Oil and Gas ‘Running Out,” CNN, October 2, 2003, https://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/global.warming/

5. US Energy Information Administration, “Does the World Have Enough Oil to Meet Our Future Needs?,” https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=38&t=6

6. Camila Ruz, “The Six Natural Resources Most Drained by Our 7 Billion People,” The Guardian, October 3l, 2011, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2011/oct/31/six-natural-resources-population

7. “Are We Running Out of Oil?,” Penn State, EME801, https://www.e-education.psu.edu/eme801/node/486

8. David Deming, “Are We Running Out of Oil?,” National Center for Policy Analysis, Policy Backgrounder No. 159, January 29, 2003, ISBN #1-56808-123-5, http://www.ncpathinktank.org/pdfs/bg159.pdf

9. Alex Farrell and Adam Brandt, “Risks of the Oil Transition,” Environmental Research Letters, October 30, 2006, https://nature.berkeley.edu/er100/readings/Farrell_2006_Risks.pdf

10. Adam Brandt et al., “Climate-Wise Choices in a World of Oil Abundance,” Environmental Research Letters, April 5, 2018, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaae76

11. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, “Cassini Reveals Surprises with Titan’s Lakes,” April 15, 2019, https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/news/904/cassini-reveals-surprises-with-titans-lakes/

12. M. K. Hubbert, “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels,” Presented at American Petroleum Institute, Southern Division, March 7–9, 1956, https://www.resilience.org/stories/2006-03-08/nuclear-energy-and-fossil-fuels/. Also see reproduced Hubbert documents by the US government, https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/4655197

13. Ian Chapman, “The End of Peak Oil? Why This Topic Is Still Relevant Despite Recent Denials,” Energy Policy, 2013, doi.org/10.1016, https://www.ourenergypolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/The-End-of-Peak-Oil.pdf

14. Hubbert, “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels.”

15. US Energy Information Administration, “STEO Current/Previous Forecast Comparisons: U.S. Energy Supply and Demand Survey,” September 9, 2020, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/compare.pdf. Note that US crude oil and dry natural gas production stood at 12.78 million barrels per day and 95.97 billion cubic feet per day, respectively, in Q4 2019, a reported all-time high. For updated data on an annual, quarterly, or monthly basis, see https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/data/browser/#/?v=3&f=A&s=0&start=2016&end=2021&id=&linechart=COPRPUS&maptype=0&ctype=linechart

16. US Energy Information Administration, “International Petroleum and Other Liquids Production,” Short-Term Energy Outlook Data Browser, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/data/browser/#/?v=6&f=Q&s=0&start=201601&end=202104&ctype=linechart&maptype=0&linechart=PAPR_OECD; “Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2020,” Enerdata, https://yearbook.enerdata.net/natural-gas/world-natural-gas-production-statistics.html. Note that total world petroleum production stood at 101.73 million barrels per day in Q4 2019 and world natural gas production stood at just over 4,000 billion cubic meters in 2019, both reported all-time highs. For historical data and current updates, see: https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world

17. DNG-VL, “Energy Transition Outlook 2018: Oil and Gas,” 2018, https://eto.dnvgl.com/2018/#Timeline

18. Adam Brandt et al., “Peak Oil Demand: The Role of Fuel Efficiency and Alternative Fuels in a Global Oil Production Decline,” Environmental Science and Technology, May 22, 2013, https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es401419t

19. US Energy Information Administration, “Short-Term Energy Outlook,” May 11, 2021, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

20. Chevron, “Climate Change Resilience: A Framework for Decision Making,” https://www.chevron.com/-/media/shared-media/documents/climate-change-resilience.pdf

21. Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrere, “The End of Cheap Oil,” Scientific American, March 1998, https://nature.berkeley.edu/er100/readings/Campbell_1998.pdf

22. Society of Petroleum Engineers, “Guidelines for Application of the Petroleum Resources Management System,” November 2011, https://www.spe.org/industry/docs/PRMS_Guidelines_Nov2011.pdf; United Nations, “United Nations Framework Classification for Fossil Energy and Mineral Resources,” http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/ie/se/pdfs/UNFC/UNFCemr.pdf

23. US Energy Information Administration, “Oil and Natural Gas Resource Categories Reflect Varying Degrees of Certainty,” July 17, 2014, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=17151

24. Energy and Environment Study Institute, “Fact Sheet: Shale Gas & Oil Terminology Explained: Reserves and Estimates,” November 2011, https://www.eesi.org/files/fracking_estimates_111611.pdf

25. Will Kenton, “Recoverable Reserves,” Investopedia, April 17, 2018, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recoverabel-reserve.asp

26. US Energy Information Administration, “U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves Declined in 2015 Because of Lower Prices,” December 15, 2016, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29172

27. See, for example, PWC, “Financial Reporting in the Oil and Gas Industry: International Financial Reporting Standards,” July 19, 2017, https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/services/audit-assurance/assets/pwc-financial-reporting-in-the-oil-and-gas-industry-2017.pdf

28. Kate Kelly and Stanley Reed, “How Aramco’s Huge I.P.O. Fell Short of Saudi Prince’s Wish,” New York Times, December 11, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/06/business/energy-environment/saudi-aramco-ipo.html#

29. Michael Coren, “Covid-19 Is Closing Canada’s Carbon-Intensive Oil Sands for Business,” Quartz, April 29, 2020, https://qz.com/1846830/covid-19-is-closing-canadas-carbon-intensive-oil-sands/

30. “Information about the Monterey Shale,” Natural Gas Intelligence, 2015, https://www.naturalgasintel.com/information-about-the-monterey-shale/

31. “UPDATE 2 – U.S. EIA Cuts Recoverable Monterey Shale Oil Estimate by 95 Percent,” Reuters, May 21, 2014, https://www.reuters.com/article/eia-monterey-shale/update-2-u-s-eia-cuts-recoverable-monterey-shale-oil-estimate-by-96-pct-idUSL1N0O713N20140521

32. Deborah Gordon, “The World’s Growing Oil Resources,” April 17, 2013, https://carnegieendowment.org/2013/04/17/world-s-growing-oil-resources-pub-51547

33. BP, “Statistical Review of World Energy,” https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html

34. Adam R. Brandt et al., “Climate-wise Choices in a World of Oil Abundance,” Environmental Research Letters, April 5, 2018, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaae76/pdf

35. International Energy Agency, Chapter 8, “Outlook for Natural Gas,” in World Energy Outlook 2017, 2018, 345.

36. This reserve estimate is far higher when counting all unconventional gas resources. See Table 2.1.

37. For details, see Tables 2.1 and 2.2. Note that consumption is approximately equal to production in a given year. Oil volumes do not consider biofuels, coal-to-liquids, or gas-to-liquids.

38. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, “Missions Cassini,” https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/missions/cassini/overview/

39. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, “Titan,” https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/saturn-moons/titan/in-depth/

40. Nola Taylor Reed, “Titan: Facts about Saturn’s Largest Moon,” Space.com, March 27, 2018, https://www.space.com/15257-titan-saturn-largest-moon-facts-discovery-sdcmp.html#

41. Prasanta Mukhopadhyay (Muki), “Planet Mars: Prospects of Biogenic or Thermogenic Oil and Gas from Deeper Sources,” AAPG, 2014, http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2014/70165muki/ndx_muki.pdf

42. “The Asteroid Trillionaires,” PhysicsWorld, June 11, 2018, https://physicsworld.com/a/the-asteroid-trillionaires/

43. Louise Lerner, “7 Things You May Not Know about Catalysis,” Argonne National Laboratory, December 14, 2011, https://www.anl.gov/article/7-things-you-may-not-know-about-catalysis

44. “Why the Next Generation of Rockets Will Be Powered by Methane,” Australia Science Channel, September 3, 2019, https://australiascience.tv/why-the-next-generation-of-rockets-will-be-powered-by-methane/

45. For a user-friendly, rotating global map of conventional and continuous (unconventional shale) oil and gas resources, see US Geological Survey, “World Petroleum Assessment,” https://certmapper.cr.usgs.gov/data/apps/world-energy/?resource=conventional

46. US Geological Survey, “World Oil and Gas Resource Assessments,” https://www.usgs.gov/centers/cersc/science/world-oil-and-gas-resource-assessments?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects

47. US Geological Survey, “U.S. Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas,” https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/map-us-assessments-undiscovered-oil-and-gas-resources

48. John Kingston, “The Undiscovered Oil and Gas of Antarctica,” US Geological Survey, 91-597, 1001, https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1991/0597/report.pdf

49. The governments of Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Chile, the French Republic, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, the Union of South Africa, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States are party to the Antarctic Treaty, which was entered into force on June 23, 1961. See “Antarctic Treaty,” US Department of State, https://2009-2017.state.gov/t/avc/trty/193967.htm; also see Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition, “The Antarctic Oil Myth,” https://www.asoc.org/component/content/article/9-blog/1184-the-antarctic-oil-myth

50. Ibid.

51. T. R. Klett et al., “Glossary,” US Geological Survey, Digital Data Series DDS–69–D, May 2005, https://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-069/dds-069-d/REPORTS/69_D_CH_25.pdf

52. US Geological Survey, “Definition of Terms,” https://pubs.usgs.gov/ha/ha747/pdf/definition.pdf

53. T. R. Klett et al., “Glossary.”

54. Gordon M. Kaufman, “Statistical Issues in the Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources,” Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT-CEEPR 92-010WP, September 1992, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e1bc/e2cbf0bbed00912f332d4737308825ca0ccc.pdf

55. Note that field counts may consider newly discovered oil and gas accumulations as part of extended discovered fields or as new fields. See Emil Attanasi and Philip Freeman, “Statistics of Petroleum Exploration in the World Outside the United States and Canada Through 2015,” US Geological Survey, Circular 1450, 2019, https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1450/circ1450.pdf

56. Li Guoyu, World Atlas of Oil and Gas Basins (Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 2011).

57. M. S. Masnadi et al., “Global Carbon Intensity of Crude Oil Production,” Science, 361, no. 6505 (August 31, 2018), https://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6405/851.summary

58. For background data, see US Energy Information Administration, “Top 100 U.S. Oil and Gas Fields,” March 2015, https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/top100/pdf/top100.pdf, and Enerdata, “Natural Gas Production, 2019,” Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2020, https://yearbook.enerdata.net/natural-gas/world-natural-gas-production-statistics.html

59. US Energy Information Administration, “U.S. Oil and Gas Wells by Production Rate,” October 28, 2018, https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/wells/

60. See, for example, Velda Addison, “Exxon Mobil Grows Guyana Oil Find Estimates to More Than 8 Bboe,” Hart Energy, January 27, 2020; Oil & Gas Journal, “Gazprom to Develop Giant Yamal Gas Field,” July 17, 2018; E. Allison and B. Mandler, “Oil and Gas in the U.S. Arctic,” American Geosciences Institute, 2018.

61. IFP Energies Nouvelles, “New Oil and Gas Discoveries in 2018,” July 30, 2019, https://www.ifpenergiesnouvelles.com/article/new-oil-and-gas-discoveries-2018

62. Ahmed ElSakka, Ghareb Hamada, Eswaran Padmanabhan, and Ahmed Salim, “South East Asia Contains Abundant, Untapped Shale Reservoirs,” Oil & Gas Journal, March 5, 2018.

63. Benjamin Roussey, “Mega Oil and Gas Discovery in the Permian Basin Doubles America’s Energy Reserves,” March 12, 2019, https://energycentral.com/c/og/mega-oil-and-gas-discovery-permian-basin-doubles-america%E2%80%99s-energy-reserves

64. In 2019 alone, the US Geological Survey assessed oil and gas basins in Greece, Albania, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Tunisia, Malta, Italy, Algeria, Australia, China, North Africa, and Alberta (Canada). Another twelve were studied in 2018. See https://www.usgs.gov/centers/cersc/science/world-oil-and-gas-resource-assessments?qt-science_center_objects=3#qt-science_center_objects; US Geological Survey, “World Petroleum Assessment,” https://certmapper.cr.usgs.gov/data/apps/world-energy/

65. US Energy Information Administration, “World Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption,” September 2020, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/tables/pdf/3dtab.pdf

66. International Energy Agency, “Natural Gas Information: Overview,” July 2020, https://www.iea.org/reports/natural-gas-information-overview

67. Since 2020 oil and gas supply and demand were temporarily altered during the COVID-19 pandemic and are not representative of past or projected future market conditions, 2018 and 2019 statistics are being used in this book.

68. Muyu Xu, Stephanie Kelly, and Yuka Obayashi, “China Drives Global Oil Demand Recover Out of Coronavirus Collapse,” Reuters, June 3, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-demand-analysis/china-drives-global-oil-demand-recovery-out-of-coronavirus-collapse-idUSKBN23A0XF

69. International Energy Agency, “Oil 2018,” 2018, https://www.iea.org/oil2018/#section-1-1

70. Deborah Gordon and Madhav Acharya, “Oil Shake Up: Refining Transitions in a Low Carbon Economy,” April 3, 2018, https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/04/03/oil-shake-up-refining-transitions-in-low-carbon-economy-pub-75954

71. American Petroleum Institute, “Why Seismic Surveys Are Needed,” https://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas/wells-to-consumer/exploration-and-production/offshore/seismic-surveys-needed-in-the-atlantic; and Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, “High-Resolution Geophysical Survey Application,”https://www.boem.gov/High-Resolution-Geophysical-Survey-Application/

72. Schlumberger, “Upcoming Bid Rounds,” http://www.multiclient.slb.com/latest-projects/licensing-rounds.aspx

73. International waters are 12 nautical miles (13.8 miles) beyond a nation’s coastal low-water mark, according to the Law of the Sea. See United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf

74. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, “Leasing,” https://www.boem.gov/Leasing/

75. Note that “Drill, baby, drill” was first used at the 2008 Republican National Convention as a way to signal American energy independence and private landowner control over their mineral rights. See https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/246453-drill-baby-drill-origin-story-revealed-in-tampa

76. US Department of Energy, “Quadrennial Technology Review 2015: Process Heating,” https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/06/f32/QTR2015-6I-Process-Heating.pdf

77. Oil & Gas Journal, “Worldwide Gas Processing Survey 2015,” https://www.ogj.com/ogj-survey-downloads.html

78. Ibid.

79. Deborah Gordon et al., “Know Your Oil: Creating a Global Oil-Climate Index,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2015, https://carnegieendowment.org/2015/03/11/know-your-oil-creating-global-oil-climate-index-pub-59285

80. Oil & Gas Journal, “2018 Worldwide Refining Survey,” January 1, 2019, https://www.ogj.com/ogj-survey-downloads.html

81. Ibid.

82. Ibid.

83. For the world’s smallest refinery see ibid. For the world’s largest refinery that was recently expanded, see ListNBest, “11 World’s Largest Oil Refineries by Processing Capacity,” https://www.listnbest.com/11-worlds-largest-oil-refineries-processing-capacity/

84. Liang Jing et al., “Global Carbon Intensity of Crude Oil Refining and Mitigation Potential,” National Climate Change 10 (2020): 526–32, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0775-3, https://rdcu.be/b4zHw

85. Ibid.

86. Ibid.

87. International Energy Agency, “Oil 2018.”

88. E. Russell Braziel, The Domino Effect (Madison, WI: NTA Press, 2016).

89. Steve Pryor, “A Partial List of the over 6,000 Products Made from One Barrel of Oil (after Creating 19 Gallons of Gasoline),” July 26, 2016, https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/partial-list-over-6000-products-made-from-one-barrel-oil-steve-pryor/

90. Devyn Collado, “Making the Case: Drilling Down on Refining for a Climate Solution,” Medium, August 13, 2020, https://medium.com/@dcollado9/making-the-case-drilling-down-on-refining-for-a-climate-solution-60d843bff2d4

91. Gordon et al., “Oil Shake Up.”

92. For a 2017 Sankey diagram of oil and gas flows see International Energy Agency, https://www.iea.org/sankey/#?c=IEA%20Total&s=Balance

93. Dan Sperling and Deborah Gordon, Two Billion Cars (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008).

94. International Energy Agency, “Oil 2018.”

95. As a point of reference, in 1978, the US electric power sector consumed an annual average of 1.75 mbpd oil. Percent reduction based on author’s calculations using EIA historic data. See “Total Energy, Petroleum Consumption Estimates: Electric Power Sector,” https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/

96. Liquid renewable fuels, such as synthetic diesel and kerosene, can be manufactured from reconfiguring biofuels or combining hydrogen with captured carbon, using renewable energy. Solar fuels use the sun for conversion energy. Lewis Research Group, “Solar Fuels,” http://nsl.caltech.edu/home/solar-fuels/

97. The Sulfur Institute, “Sulphur Uses,” https://www.sulphurinstitute.org/about-sulphur/glossary/#uses

98. US National Park Service, “Cabin Branch Pyrite Mine (1889–1920),” https://www.nps.gov/prwi/learn/historyculture/cabin-branch-mine.htm

99. Akshat Rathi, “To Hit Climate Goals, Bill Gates and His Billionaire Friends Are Betting on Energy Storage,” Quartz, June 12, 2018, https://qz.com/1302711/to-hit-climate-goals-bill-gates-and-his-billionaire-friends-are-betting-on-energy-storage/

100. US Energy Information Administration, “What Drives Crude Oil Prices?,” https://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/crudeoil/

101. Lutz Killian, “Oil Price Volatility: Origins and Effects,” World Trade Report 2010, World Trade Organization, https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/wtr10_forum_e/wtr10_kilian_e.htm

102. For information on past pandemics, see US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Past Pandemics,” August 2018, https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/basics/past-pandemics.html

103. For a discussion on the barriers regarding energy innovation, see Richard Lester, “Energy Innovation,” in Production in the Innovation Economy, ed. Richard Locke and Rachel Wellhausen (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2014).

104. US Energy Information Administration, “Short-Term Energy Outlook,” June 11, 2019, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

105. Free on Board (FOB) is the price for loading and shipping the commodity but does not include the cost of delivery to its final destination. Instead, an FOB sale transfers the title to the buyer once the commodity is in transit. FOB pricing facilitates the export of large volumes that have multiple destinations en route. For more information see McKinsey, “FOB,” Energy Insights, https://www.mckinseyenergyinsights.com/resources/refinery-reference-desk/fob/

106. Buyers and sellers who establish contracts and settle prices include producers, refiners, traders, and large distributors and consumers (such as large fuel retailers and wholesalers). Price assessment agencies (such as Platts, Argus, and others) act as third-party firms that publish spot prices. See McKinsey, “Spot Market,” Energy Insights, https://www.mckinseyenergyinsights.com/resources/refinery-reference-desk/spot-market/

107. Francis Bator, “The Anatomy of Market Failure,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 72 (August 1958), https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/72/3/351/1859737?redirectedFrom=fulltext

108. George Akerlof’s 1970 paper, “The Market for Lemons,” laid the ground for information economics. See “Secrets and agents,” The Economist, June 23, 2016, https://www.economist.com/schools-brief/2016/07/23/secrets-and-agents; citizenscience.gov

109. K. J. Arrow, “Inter-Generational Equity and the Rate of Discount in Long-Term Social Investment,” in Contemporary Economic Issues. International Economic Association Series, ed. M. R. Sertel (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 1999), https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-14540-9_5; Louis Sohn and Edith Brown Weiss, “Intergenerational Equity in International Law,” Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the American Society of International Law 81 (April 8–11, 1987), https://www.jstor.org/stable/25658355

110. National Petroleum Council, “Unconventional Oil,” Working Document of the NPC North American Resource Development Study, Paper #1–6, September 15, 2011, www.npc.org/Prudent_Development-Topic_Papers/1-6_Unconventional_Oil_Paper.pdf

111. Alison Redford, “We Rise Together or We Fall Together,” Policy Options Politiques, February 1, 2012, https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/sustainable-energy/we-rise-together-or-we-fall-together/

112. Justin Worland, “The Reason Fossil Fuel Companies Are Finally Reckoning with Climate Change,” Time Magazine, January 16, 2020, https://time.com/5766188/shell-oil-companies-fossil-fuels-climate-change/

113. Larry Fink, BlackRock, https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/investor-relations/larry-fink-ceo-letter?cid=ppc:CEOLetter:PMS:US:NA

114. “Saudi Arabia Urges OPEC+ to Reduce Oil Production,” Arabian Business Industries, May 13, 2020, https://www.arabianbusiness.com/energy/446595-saudi-arabia-urges-opec-to-reduce-oil-production

115. Ron Bousso, “For Big Oil, Reserve Size Matters Less Than Ever,” Reuters, May 16, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oilmajors-reserves/for-big-oil-reserve-size-matters-less-than-ever-idUSKCN1IH1I2

CHAPTER 2

1. The first person to commercialize kerosene—Abraham Pineo Gesner—moved to Halifax in 1848. Gesner extracted “albertite” (the name he gave to tarry oil) in 1836 and successfully “cracked” these hydrocarbons to form “keroselain,” railway grease, paving asphalt, mineral caulk, ash for fertilizer, and solid coke. He renamed this product “kerosene,” which produced a brighter and cleaner flame than burning coal gas. Gesner’s kerosene was already in use in a Halifax apartment and Nova Scotia’s lighthouse when it was used in Washington, DC’s streetlights. See David C. Cooper, ed., Doctors of Another Calling: Physicians Who Are Known Best in Fields Other Than Medicine (Lanham, MD: University of Delaware Press, 2014).

2. Umar Ali, “The History of the Oil and Gas Industry from 347 AD to Today,” March 7, 2019, https://www.offshore-technology.com/comment/history-oil-gas/

3. Rock oil came from the Marcellus play, one of the largest unconventional resource basins in operation today. See US Energy Information Administration, “Marcellus Shale Play,” 2017, https://www.eia.gov/maps/pdf/MarcellusPlayUpdate_Jan2017.pdf

4. Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power (New York: Free Press, 1991).

5. Deborah Gordon and Samuel Wojcicki, “Drilling Down on Oil: The Case of California’s Complex Midway Sunset Field,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, March 15, 2017, https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/03/15/drilling-down-on-oil-case-of-california-s-complex-midway-sunset-field-pub-68210

6. A half-century would pass before the world’s single largest conventional oil field, Saudi Ghawar, began production in 1951. For more information on the industry and its evolution, see Deborah Gordon and Daniel Sperling, “Big Oil Can’t Get Beyond Petroleum,” Washington Post, June 20, 2010, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/11/AR2010061103256.html

7. US Geological Survey, “The Sunset-Midway Oil Field, California,” 1919, http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/0117/report.pdf

8. Oil Climate Index + Gas Preview Web Tool (note: sort supply chain by Upstream+Midstream [indirect] emissions and hover over top and bottom bars); International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2018, Chapter 11, November 13, 2018; for International Energy Agency World Energy Outlooks (previous years), see https://webstore.iea.org/search?q=World+Energy+Outlook&adv=false&cid=0&isc=false&pf=&pt=&sid=false

9. For figures and sources see Tables 2.1 and 2.2.

10. Ibid.

11. National Geographic Resource Library, “Petroleum,” https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/petroleum/

12. Amit Kumar et al., “Lithium Recovery from Oil and Gas Produced Water: A Need for a Growing Energy Industry,” ACS Energy Letters 4, no. 6 (2019): 1471–74, https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acsenergylett.9b00779

13. Deborah Gordon et al., “Know Your Oil,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, March 2015, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/know_your_oil.pdf

14. “Gases – Densities,” Engineering ToolBox, https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/gas-density-d_158.html

15. US Energy Information Association, “Glossary,” https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=C#conv_oil_nat_gas_prod and https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=Unconventional%20oil%20and%20natural%20gas%20production

16. For example, see OCI+ analysis of conventional light and medium oils and wet and dry gases that plots total emissions versus consumer GHG responsibilities: https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#analysis?xSelect=consumerGHG&ySelect=ghgTotal&oiltypeSelect=Light%20Oil,Dry%20Gas,Wet%20Gas

17. For cumulative conventional oil production, see Adam Brandt et al., “Climate-Wise Choices in a World of Oil Abundance,” Environmental Research Letters, April 2018,https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaae76 (from 1859 to 2015) and International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2017 (Table 4.1) and 2018 (Table 3.1) (for 2016–2019). For cumulative conventional gas production see Our World in Data, “Energy,” https://ourworldindata.org/energy and IEA; World Energy Outlook 2017 (Table 4.1) (for 2000–2019). Note that barrels of oil can be added directly to BOE gas.

18. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2017,https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2017

19. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2017, Special Focus on Natural Gas, 2018, https://www.iea.org/reports/outlook-for-natural-gas

20. Water Quality Improvement Act of 1970 (P.L. 91-224).

21. US Congressional Budget Office, “The World Oil Market in the 1980s: Implications for the United States,” May 1980, https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/96th-congress-1979-1980/reports/80doc17.pdf

22. H. Rept. 96-1016, Part II (June 20, 1980), p. 6.

23. Jonathan L. Ramseur, “Oil Sands and the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund: The Definition of ‘Oil’ and Related Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, February 15, 2017, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43128.pdf

24. US Energy Information Administration, “Horizontally Drilled Wells Dominate U.S. Tight Formation Production,” June 6, 2019, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39752; US Energy Information Administration, “Hydraulically Fractured Horizontal Wells Account for Most New Oil and Natural Gas Wells,” January 30, 2018, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=34732

25. Oil Sands Magazine, “Total Bitumen Production from Mining & In-Situ,” https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/projects/bitumen-production#Chart

26. Deborah Gordon et al., “Know Your Oil: Creating a Global Oil-Climate Index,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 11, 2015, https://carnegieendowment.org/2015/03/11/know-your-oil-creating-global-oil-climate-index-pub-59285

27. Deborah Gordon and Chris Malins, “Uncovering Oil’s Unknowns,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 19, 2013, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Debbie-UnknownOil-article-final.pdf

28. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2017 (Table 4.1).

29. Ibid.

30. Continuous-type oil and gas deposits are present in fine-grain shale, carbonate, limestone, and other rocks. See Michael Ratner and Mary Tiemann, “An Overview of Unconventional Oil and Gas: Resources and Federal Oversight,” US Congressional Research Service, 7-5700, R43148, April 22, 2015, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43148.pdf

31. American Oil and Gas Historical Project (AOGHS), “Shooters – A ‘Fracking’ History,” https://aoghs.org/technology/hydraulic-fracturing/

32. Mark Green, “Happy Birthday, Fracking!,” American Petroleum Institute, March 17, 2014, https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/blog/2014/03/17/march-17-happy-birthday-fracking

33. Gregory Zuckerman, “Breakthrough: The Accidental Discovery That Revolutionized American Energy,” The Atlantic, November 6, 2013, https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/11/breakthrough-the-accidental-discovery-that-revolutionized-american-energy/281193/

34. US Energy Information Administration, “Trends in U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Upstream Costs,” March 2016, https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/drilling/pdf/upstream.pdf

35. Deborah Gordon and Frances Reuland, “Mapping, Measuring, and Managing Methane: The Critical Role of a Potent Climate Pollutant,” Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University, November 2019, https://watson.brown.edu/files/watson/imce/news/ResearchBriefs/2019/Methane%20Report-6%20November%202019.pdf

36. The earth’s crust extends twenty-one miles below the surface; see https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/154357-earths-core-is-much-hotter-than-previously-thought-hotter-than-the-surface-of-the-sun#. At present, the world’s deepest commercial oil and gas well (Russia Chayvo) is nearly 8 miles below the surface; see https://www.oilandgasiq.com/drilling-and-development/articles/z-44-chayvo-well-the-deepest-oil-extraction#

37. For estimates using OCI 2.0, see https://oci.carnegieendowment.org/#compare/russia-chayvo/angola-takula. Note: Hover over upstream graph to see GHG contribution from drilling.

38. Ibid.

39. Gongcheng Zhang et al., “Giant Discoveries of Oil and Gas Fields in Global Deepwaters in the Past 40 Years and the Prospect of Exploration,” Journal of Natural Gas Geoscience 4, no. 1 (February 2019), https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468256X19300033

40. “Ultra-Deep Gas Production Set to Triple by 2025,” Offshore Technology, June 5, 2018, https://www.offshore-technology.com/comment/ultra-deepwater-gas-production-set-triple-2025/

41. Ibid.

42. “Global Deepwater Production Hits 10 Million BOE/D,” Journal of Petroleum Technology, December 30, 2019, https://pubs.spe.org/en/jpt/jpt-article-detail/?art=6422

43. Two additional nations, Finland and Sweden, border the Arctic Circle but do not have access to the Arctic seafloor. The Arctic basins include Amerasian Basin, Arctic Alaska Basin, East Barents Basin, East Greenland Rift Basin, West Greenland–East Canada Basin, West Siberian Basin, and the Yenisey-Khatanga Basin. See Hobart M. King, “Oil and Gas Resources of the Arctic,” Geology.com, https://geology.com/articles/arctic-oil-and-gas/

44. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, “The Study of Earth as an Integrated System,” https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/

45. “Offshore Arctic Oil & Gas: Market Report to 2018,” Infield Energy Analysts, 2012, https://www.infield.com/brochures/offshore-arctic-oil-gas-market-forecast-report.pdf

46. Atle Staalesen, “Norway Ramps Up Oil and Gas Production in Arctic Despite Looming Oil Crisis,” Eye on the Arctic, January 10, 2019, https://www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/2019/01/10/norway-oil-offshore-barents-sea-climate-change/; “The Future of Russian Oil Production in the Short, Medium, and Long Term,” Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, September 2019, https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Future-of-Russian-Oil-Production-in-the-Short-Medium-and-Long-Term-Insight-57.pdf

47. Atle Staalesen, “Why Arctic Oil Development Could Soon Be in Crisis,” Independent Barents Observer, March 26, 2020, https://www.arctictoday.com/why-arctic-oil-development-could-soon-be-in-crisis/

48. Atle Staalesen, “Putin Signs Arctic Master Plan,” Barents Observer, March 6, 2020,  https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2020/03/putin-signs-arctic-master-plan

49. US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “What Is the Gulf Stream?,” https://scijinks.gov/gulf-stream/; Moises Velasquez-Manoff and Jeremy White, “In the Atlantic Ocean, Subtle Shifts Hint at Dramatic Dangers,” New York Times, March 2, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/03/02/climate/atlantic-ocean-climate-change.html

50. Rigzone, “What Is Tight Gas, and How Is It Produced?,” https://www.rigzone.com/training/insight.asp?insight_id=346&c_id=

51. “Coal,” Geology.com, https://geology.com/rocks/coal.shtml

52. American Geosciences Institute, “What Is Coalbed Methane?,” https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/faq/what-coalbed-methane

53. US Environmental Protection Agency, “Coalbed Methane Outreach Program,” https://www.epa.gov/cmop/frequent-questions; Cheryl Katz, “In Push to Find Methane Leaks, Satellites Gear Up for the Hunt,” Yale Environment 360, June 15, 2021, https://e360.yale.edu/features/in-push-to-find-methane-leaks-satellites-gear-up-for-the-hunt

54. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2018, Table 4.1.

55. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2017, Table 8.2.

56. Valerio Paolini et al., “Environment Impact of Biogas: A Short Review of Current Knowledge,” Journal of Environmental Science and Health, April 13, 2018, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10934529.2018.1459076

57. US Energy Information Administration, “Biomass Explained,” updated November 12, 2019, https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/biomass/landfill-gas-and-biogas.php

58. Manjola Banj et al., “Support for Biogas in the EU Electricity Sector – A Comparative Analysis,” Biomass and Bioenergy 128 (September 2019), https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0961953419302624?via%3Dihub

59. L. Yang and X. Ge, “Chapter Three: Biogas and Syngas Upgrading,” in Advances in Bioenergy, vol. 1, Edited by Yebo Li, Xumeng Ge, Elsevier, 125-186, (2016), https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.aibe.2016.09.003

60. Clifford Krauss, “Big Oil Bets on Carbon Removal,” New York Times, April 8, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/07/business/energy-environment/climate-change-carbon-engineering.html

61. Note that this article incorrectly refers to acid gas as “sour” gas. W. F. J. Burgers et al., “Worldwide Development Potential for Sour Gas,” Energy Procedia 4 (2011), https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876610211003018

62. Note that there are pitfalls developing acid gas. For example, it is unclear whether Chevron will ultimately be able to successfully operate Gorgon’s acid gas field despite permit requirements to deploy CCS in Australia. See Lisa Cox, “Western Australia LNG Plant Faces Calls to Shut Down Until Faulty Carbon Capture System Is Fixed, The Guardian, January 14, 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/15/western-australia-lng-plant-faces-calls-to-shut-down-until-faulty-carbon-capture-system-is-fixed

63. Oil Climate Index + Gas Preview Web Tool, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#supply-chain?model=00000000&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00&stepSelect=ghgTotal&sortSelect=true&oiltypeSelect=CO2%20EOR%20Oil,Sour%20Gas,Dry%20Gas

64. James G. Speight, “Gas in Geopressurized Zones,” in Natural Gas, 2nd ed., Science Direct, 59-98, (2019), https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/geopressure

65. US Department of Energy, “Methane Hydrate,” https://www.energy.gov/fe/science-innovation/oil-gas-research/methane-hydrate

66. Ibid.; Carolyn D. Ruppel, “Methane Hydrates and Contemporary Climate Change,” Nature Education Knowledge 3, no. 10 (2011), https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/methane-hydrates-and-contemporary-climate-change-24314790/

67. US Geological Survey, “Gas Hydrate Breakdown Unlikely to Cause Massive Greenhouse Gas Release,” February 9, 2017, https://www.usgs.gov/news/gas-hydrate-breakdown-unlikely-cause-massive-greenhouse-gas-release

68. US Department of Energy, “Methane Hydrate, Science and Technology: A 2017 Update,” July 2017, https://netl.doe.gov/sites/default/files/netl-file/2017-Methane-Hydrate-Primer%5B1%5D.pdf

69. Y. C. Beaudoin, S. R. Dallimore, and R. Boswell, eds., Frozen Heat: A UNEP Global Outlook on Methane Gas Hydrates, vol. 2. United Nations Environment Programme, GRID-Arendal, 2014. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/1993GasHydrates_Vol2_screen.pdf; Evgenios Zogopoulos, “Fire from Ice: A Case Study of Methane Hydrates in the Eastern Mediterranean,” Energy Industry Review, August 13, 2019, https://energyindustryreview.com/analysis/fire-from-ice-a-case-study-of-methane-hydrates-in-the-eastern-mediterranean/

70. For current development prospects, see, for example, US Geological Survey, “Test Well Confirms Two Gas Hydrate Reservoirs in Alaska North Slope,” April 26, 2019, https://www.usgs.gov/news/test-well-confirms-two-gas-hydrate-reservoirs-alaska-north-slope; DNV GL, “Oil and Gas Forecast to 2050,” https://www.ourenergypolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DNV-GL_Energy-Transistion-Outlook-2017_oil-gas_lowres-single_3108_3.pdf; US Department of Energy, “Data from Innovative Methane Hydrate Test on Alaska’s North Slope,” March 11, 2013, https://www.energy.gov/fe/articles/data-innovative-methane-hydrate-test-alaskas-north-slope-now

71. Daniel Kressey, “Giant Dome Fails to Fix Deepwater Horizon Oil Disaster,” Nature News Blog, May 10, 2010, http://blogs.nature.com/news/2010/05/_giant_dome_fails_to_fix_deepw.html

72. Nancy Bazilchuk, “Giant Gas Craters Discovered at the Bottom of the Barents Sea,” ScienceNordic, October 5, 2018, http://sciencenordic.com/giant-gas-craters-discovered-bottom-barents-sea

73. Nicola Jones, “The World Eyes Another Unconventional Source of Fossil Fuels,” Yale Environment 360, August 21, 2017, https://e360.yale.edu/features/the-world-eyes-yet-another-unconventional-source-of-fossil-fuels-methane-hydrates

74. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2018, Table 3.1.

75. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2019, November 2019, https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/us-shale-oil-production-in-the-stated-policies-scenario-2005-2030

76. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2018.

77. Cally Carswell, “Unique Oil Spill in East China Sea Frustrates Scientists,” Nature 554 (January 24, 2018): 17–18, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-00976-9; Alexis Madrigal, “The Great Crude Oil Fireball Test,” The Atlantic, February 5, 2018, https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/02/the-great-crude-oil-fireball-test/552029/; and Scandia National Laboratory, “Crude Oil Properties Relevant to Handling and Fire Safety in Transport,” June 19, 2015, https://energy.sandia.gov/crude-oil-properties-relevant-to-handling-and-fire-safety-in-transport/

78. Schlumberger, “Oilfield Glossary,” https://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/en/Terms/c/condensate.aspx

79. US Congressional Research Service, “Natural Gas Liquids: The Unknown Hydrocarbons,” October 26, 2018, https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R45398.html#_Ref528046797

80. John Manfreda, “The Real History of Fracking,” Oilprice.com, April 13, 2015, https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Real-History-Of-Fracking.html

81. Ibid.; American Oil and Gas Historical Project (AOGHS), “Shooters – A Fracking History,” https://aoghs.org/technology/hydraulic-fracturing/

82. US Energy Information Administration, “EIA Adds New Play Production Data to Shale Gas and Tight Oil Reports,” February 15, 2019, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38372#

83. Abbas Ghandi et al., “Energy Intensity and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Crude Oil Production in the Eagle Ford Region: Input Data and Analysis Methods,” Prepared for Argonne National Laboratory, September 2015, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303592051_Energy_Intensity_and_Greenhouse_Gas_Emissions_from_Crude_Oil_Production_in_the_Eagle_Ford_Region_Input_Data_and_Analysis_Methods

84. Andrew Hecht, “Crude Oil vs. Natural Gas,” The Balance, January 6, 2020, https://www.thebalance.com/crude-oil-versus-natural-gas-competing-energy-markets-808876

85. Deborah Gordon. “The Carbon Contained in Global Oils,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, December 2012, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/global_oils.pdf

86. Manik Talwani, “The Orinoco Heavy Oil Belt in Venezuela (or Heavy Oil to the Rescue?),” James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University, September 2002, https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/Research/8bb18b4e/the-orinoco-heavy-oil-belt-in-venezuela-or-heavy-oil-to-the-rescue.pdf

87. “From Diluted Bitumen to Synthetic Crude: Upgrading Explained,” Oil Sands Magazine, https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/technical/bitumen-upgrading

88. In addition to Venezuela and Canada, China, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Alaska, California, Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado contain isolated deposits. See Rigzone, “Where Is Heavy Oil Found?,” https://www.rigzone.com/training/heavyoil/insight.asp?i_id=194

89. William Walter Kay, “Valuing Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt,” GlobalResearch, February 2, 2019, https://www.globalresearch.ca/valuing-venezuelas-orinoco-oil-belt/5667266

90. “Oil Sands History and Milestones,” https://www.canadasoilsands.ca/en/what-are-the-oil-sands/oil-sands-history-and-milestones

91. “In Situ Bitumen Extraction,” Oil Sands Magazine, https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/technical/in-situ

92. Chevron, BP, Statoil (Equinor), and Total have each been instrumental in working with PdVSA to develop their heavy oil over the decades. Also see Matt Ferchen, “Crude Complications: Venezuela, China, and the United States,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 23, 2014, https://carnegietsinghua.org/2014/10/23/crude-complications-venezuela-china-and-united-states/hsk9

93. “COSIA Is Mobilizing the World’s Best Minds to Improve Environmental Performance,” https://www.cosia.ca/about; Government of Canada, “University of Calgary: Global Research Initiative in Sustainable Low Carbon Unconventional Resources,” http://www.cfref-apogee.gc.ca/results-resultats/abstracts-resumes/competition_2/university_of_Calgary-eng.aspx

94. See, for example, “Scientists Extract H2 Gas from Oil and Bitumen, Giving Potential Pollution-Free Energy,” American Association for the Advancement of Science, August 19, 2019, https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-08/gc-seh081819.php; Green Car Congress, August 20, 2019, https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/08/20190820-proton.html; Rohallah Hashemi et al., “Nanoparticle Technology for Heavy Oil In-Situ Upgrading and Recovery Enhancement: Opportunities and Challenges,” Applied Energy 133 (November 15, 2014), https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S030626191400752; and Ian Head and Neil Gray, “Microbial Biotechnology 2020: Microbiology of Fossil Fuel Resources, Microbial Technology 9, no. 5 (September 2016), https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4993181/

95. Oil & Gas iQ, “Z-44 Chavo Well: The Deepest Oil Extraction,” https://www.oilandgasiq.com/drilling-and-development/articles/z-44-chayvo-well-the-deepest-oil-extraction

96. Zhang et al., “Giant Discoveries of Oil and Gas Fields in Global Deepwaters in the Past 40 Years and the Prospect of Exploration.”

97. Rigzone, “How Do FPSOs Work?,” https://www.rigzone.com/training/insight.asp?insight_id=299&c_id=

98. “GHGSat Announces Research Project to Demonstrate Satellite-Based Measurement of Methane Emissions from Offshore Sources,” SpaceRef, July 7, 2021, http://spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=57719

99. Gas is produced along with Arctic oil, condensates, and NGLs, but much of this gas is reinjected to increase oil production. For national production figures, see US Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=manfpak2&f=a (U.S. Alaska North Slope); “The Future of Russian Oil Production in the Short, Medium, and Long Term,” Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, September 2019,https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Future-of-Russian-Oil-Production-in-the-Short-Medium-and-Long-Term-Insight-57.pdf (Russia Arctic); and Atle Staalesen, “Norway Ramps Up Oil and Gas Production in Arctic Despite Looming Oil Crisis,” Eye on the Arctic, January 10, 2019, https://www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/2019/01/10/norway-oil-offshore-barents-sea-climate-change/ (Norway Arctic).

100. Zhang et al., “Giant Discoveries of Oil and Gas Fields in Global Deepwaters in the Past 40 Years and the Prospect of Exploration.”

101. Wendy Koch, “3 Reasons Why Shell Halted Drilling in the Arctic,” National Geographic, September 28, 2015, https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2015/09/150928-3-reasons-shell-halted-drilling-in-the-arctic/

102. In 2020, BP sold its Alaska assets. See Rachel Adams-Heard, “What Happens When an Oil Giant Walks Away,” Bloomberg Green, April 15, 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-tracking-carbon-emissions-BP-hilcorp/

103. Julian Turner, “The Cold Thaw: Inside Russia’s $300bn Arctic Oil and Gas Investment,” Offshore Technology, May 5, 2020, https://www.offshore-technology.com/features/the-cold-thaw-inside-russias-300bn-arctic-oil-and-gas-investment/

104. Yereth Rosen, “Alaska Officials Probing BP Oil, Gas Wells at Prudhoe Bay after Spill,” Reuters, January 14, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bp-alaska-wells/alaska-officials-probing-bp-oil-gas-wells-at-prudhoe-bay-after-spill-idUSKCN1P909H

105. US Department of Energy, “US Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather,” July 2013, https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2013/07/f2/20130710-Energy-Sector-Vulnerabilities-Report.pdf

106. Primary recovery uses the reservoir’s natural pressure to lift oil and gas to the surface and recover about 10 percent of the original oil in place (OOIP). Secondary techniques are used to tap an additional 10 to 30 percent of OOIP by injecting water or gas to displace oil and driving it to the surface. See US Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy, “Enhanced Recovery,” https://www.energy.gov/fe/science-innovation/oil-gas-research/enhanced-oil-recovery

107. Christophe McGlade, G. Sondak, and Mei Han, “Commentary: Whatever Happened to Enhanced Oil Recovery?,” November 28, 2018, https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/november/whatever-happened-to-enhanced-oil-recovery.html

108. GlassPoint, “GlassPoint and Occidental of Oman Sign Agreement to Cooperate on Project to Facilitate Oil Production in Oman,” https://www.glasspoint.com/glasspoint-and-occidental-of-oman-sign-agreement-to-cooperate-on-project-to-facilitate-oil-production-in-oman/. For more information on this particular case study on solar steam, see Julia Benz, “Leading Emission Reduction Opportunities and Renewable Technologies for Oil and Gas Production,” Senior thesis, Brown University, March 26, 2021.

109. PetroWiki, “In-Situ Combustion,” https://petrowiki.org/In-situ_combustion

110. Chegenizadeh Negin, Saeedi Ali, and Quan Xie, “Application of Nanotechnology for Enhancing Oil Recovery – A Review,” Petroleum 2, no. 4 (December 2016), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petlm.2016.10.002

111. Christopher Matthews, “Silicon Valley to Big Oil: We Can Manage Your Data Better Than You,” Wall Street Journal, July 24, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/silicon-valley-courts-a-wary-oil-patch-1532424600

112. Oil shale (kerogen) should not be confused with shale oil—an entirely unrelated hydrocarbon produced by hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, as discussed previously.

113. Retorting involves mining and crushing the rock in a cylindrical vessel and heating it for prolonged periods at 500°C in the absence of oxygen to thermally break down the kerogen into lighter hydrocarbons that can then be manufactured into a limited slate of synthetic gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The process also involves removing high sulfur loads, dealing with heavy metals and toxic gases, and consuming significant water. See Anthony Andrews, “Oil Shale: History, Incentives, and Policy,” US Congressional Research Service, RL 33359, April 13, 2006, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL33359.pdf

114. For a comparison of oil shale lifecycle GHGs to conventional oil, see figure 1: Adam Brandt, “Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Liquid Fuels Produced from Estonian Oil Shale,” Prepared for European Commission, Joint Research Center, November 19, 2010, https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/9ab55170-dc88-4dcb-b2d6-e7e7ba59d8c3/Brandt_Estonian_Oil_Shale_Final.pdf

115. Oil-deficient regions with oil shale include Jordan, Israel, Egypt, Morocco, Estonia, Sweden, Poland, Slovakia, Turkey, Thailand, Korea, Western China, and Utah. Oil-bearing regions with oil shale include Australia, Alaska, Siberia, Scotland, Canada, Colorado, Wyoming, Tennessee, and Brazil. For more information see “Geology and Resources of Some World Oil-Shale Deposits,” Geology.com, https://geology.com/usgs/oil-shale/

116. Jennifer A. Dlouhy, “Shell Quits Colorado Oil Shale Effort,” Houston Chronicle, September 25, 2013, https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Shell-quits-Colorado-oil-shale-effort-4844591.php

117. Richard C. Selley and Stephen A. Sonnenberg, “Nonconventional Petroleum Resources,” in Elements of Petroleum Geology, 3rd ed., Science Direct, 427-482 (2015), https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-386031-6.00009-6

118. Daniel Strohl, “Fact Check: Henry Ford Didn’t Design the Model T as a Multi-Fuel Vehicle,” Hemmings Daily, April 23, 2017, https://www.hemmings.com/blog/2017/04/23/fact-check-henry-ford-didnt-design-the-model-t-as-a-multi-fuel-vehicle/

119. Beyond the United States and Brazil, the European Union, China, India, Canada, Thailand, and Argentina accounted for 14 percent of total ethanol production. Statista, “Fuel Ethanol Production Worldwide in 2019, by Country,” https://www.statista.com/statistics/281606/ethanol-production-in-selected-countries/

120. In addition to these leading countries, Argentina, Thailand, and Malaysia are also major biodiesel producers. Statista, “Leading Biodiesel Producers Worldwide in 2017, by Country,” https://www.statista.com/statistics/271472/biodiesel-production-in-selected-countries/

121. Renewable diesel is more similar to conventional diesel than biodiesel and can be transported in existing pipelines and blended at high ratios into petroleum-based diesel. See Amy Kalt, “Green Grow the (Refineries) – Low-Carbon Programs. Spur More Renewable Diesel,” RBN Energy, July 6, 2020, https://rbnenergy.com/green-grow-the-refineries-low-carbon-programs-spur-more-renewable-diesel-refineries; Adam Klauber, Ned Harvey, Kathleen Wight, “The Low-Carbon Jet Fuel Market Is Cleared for Take-Off,” Rocky Mountain Institute, October 22, 2020, https://rmi.org/the-low-carbon-jet-fuel-market-is-cleared-for-take-off/

122. Biofuel GHGs vary significantly depending on the organic feedstock and how it is produced and transformed. Improved emissions performance is ongoing. For an older resource see US Department of Energy, https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/edg/media/BiofuelsMythVFact.pdf. For a newer source see Georgina Gustin, “As Trump Touts Ethanol, Scientists Question the Fuel’s Climate Claims,” Inside Climate News, June 14, 2019, https://insideclimatenews.org/news/14062019/trump-ethanol-climate-change-benefit-science-questions-emissions-data-usda

123. Biomass Research and Development Board, “Increasing Feedstock Production for Biofuels,” 2019, https://afdc.energy.gov/files/pdfs/increasing_feedstock_revised.pdf; Brian Barth, “The Next Generation of Biofuels Could Come from These Five Crops,” Smithsonian.com, October 3, 2017, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/next-generation-biofuels-could-come-from-these-five-crops-180965099/

124. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is not the same as GTLs (discussed earlier) or NGLs (discussed previously). LNG is when natural gas (methane) is temporarily turned into a liquid for transport. At the final destination, regasification equipment then turns LNG back into a gas. See Penn State, “Oil: International Evolution,” Chapter 16, https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee120/node/411

125. For example, Shell’s GTL process partially oxidizes natural gas into hydrogen and carbon monoxide (syngas), removes impurities, converts this into a waxy hydrocarbon intermediary using a cobalt catalyst, and cracks this intermediary into diesel, jet fuel, and lubricant oil. See Shell, “Gas-to-Liquids,” https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/natural-gas/gas-to-liquids.html; and National Energy Technology Laboratory, “Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis,” Figure 1, https://www.netl.doe.gov/research/coal/energy-systems/gasification/gasifipedia/ftsynthesis

126. Shell, “Pearl GTL,” https://www.shell.com/about-us/major-projects/pearl-gtl/pearl-gtl-an-overview.html; “Pearl GTL Project Is Operating Efficiently: Shell Qatar Chairman,” The Peninsula, February 5, 2019, https://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/05/02/2019/Pearl-GTL-project-is-operating-efficiently-Shell-Qatar-Chairman

127. Han Hao et al., “Energy Consumption and GHG Emissions of GTL Fuel by LCA,” Applied Energy 87, no. 10 (October 2010), https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306261910000930

128. Rachel Cernansky, “Is Coal to Liquid More Efficient Than Gasoline?,” Planet Green, August 29, 2012, https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/energy/coal-liquid-efficient-gasoline1.htm

129. See “Innovation and the Environmental Performance of Oil and Gas Supply,” in International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2018, Chapter 11, November 13, 2018. Note, a gigatonne (Gt) equals a billion metric tonnes.

130. The International Energy Agency assumes a 100-year global warming potential (GWP) of 30x for methane, which undercounts CO2e in the near term. Using a 20-year GWP of 86x for methane significantly boosts CO2e, as discussed in forthcoming chapters.

131. Zeke Hausfather, “How Much ‘Carbon Budget’ Is Left to limit Global Warming to 1.5C?,” Carbon Brief, April 9, 2018, https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-much-carbon-budget-is-left-to-limit-global-warming-to-1-5c

132. SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, “Study Shows a Much Cheaper Catalyst Can Generate Hydrogen in a Commercial Device,” October 14, 2019, https://phys.org/news/2019-10-cheaper-catalyst-hydrogen-commercial-device.html

133. US Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, “5 Fast Facts about Hydrogen and Fuel Cells,” October 4, 2017, https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/5-fast-facts-about-hydrogen-and-fuel-cells

134. Noe van Hulst, “The Clean Hydrogen Future Has Already Begun,” International Energy Agency, April 23, 2019, https://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-clean-hydrogen-future-has-already-begun

135. “Hydrogen from Renewable Power,” IRENA, September 2018, https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2018/Sep/IRENA_Hydrogen_from_renewable_power_2018.pdf

136. GasTerra, “Hydrogen and CCS: A Smart Combination,” https://www.gasterra.nl/en/news/hydrogen-and-ccs-a-smart-combination

137. Ewa Krukowska and Alexandra Weber, “Hydrogen and Recycling to Get a Boost in EU Green-Industry Plan,” Bloomberg Quint, January 28, 2020, https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/hydrogen-and-recycling-to-get-a-boost-in-eu-green-industry-plan

138. For details on hydrogen production pathways see US Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, “Alternative Fuels Data Center: Hydrogen Production and Distribution,” https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_production.html; and Marshall Miller, Arun Raju, and Partho Sorothi Roy, “The Development of Lifecycle Data for Hydrogen Fuel Production and Delivery,” National Center for Sustainable Transportation and Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis, October 2017.

139. Bret Williams, “New Green Hydrogen Project Could Be the Next Step towards a Circular Economy,” Hydrogen Fuel News, March 6, 2019, http://www.hydrogenfuelnews.com/new-green-hydrogen-project-could-be-the-next-step-towards-a-circular-economy/8537052/

140. For US trends see US Energy Information Administration, “Hydrogen for Refineries Is Increasingly Provided by Industrial Suppliers,” January 20, 2016, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=24612; US Energy Information Administration, “U.S. Gulf Coast Refinery Demand for Hydrogen Increasingly Met by Merchant Suppliers,” March 15, 2019, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38712; and International Energy Agency, “The Future of Hydrogen,” June 2019, https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen

141. Industrial examples include Shell Sky Scenario, https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenario-sky.html; Equinor, “Hydrogen,”  https://www.equinor.com/en/how-and-why/climate-change/hydrogen.html; “A Future with Hydrogen,” Jacobs Engineering, January 14, 2019, https://www.jacobs.com/news/215/a-future-with-hydrogen

142. “After Many False Starts, Hydrogen Power Might Now Bear Fruit,” The Economist, July 4, 2020, https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/07/04/after-many-false-starts-hydrogen-power-might-now-bear-fruit; Other national examples include Bianca Nogrady, “From German Trains to South Korean Buses, Hydrogen Fuel Is Back in the Energy Picture,” November 6, 2018, https://ensia.com/features/hydrogen-fuel/; Raphael Schoentgen, “The Green Hydrogen Revolution Has Started, and It Won’t Be Stopped,” World Economic Forum, November 23, 2018, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/11/the-green-hydrogen-revolution-has-started-and-won-t-be-stopped/

143. Oliver Holmes, “Space: How Far Have We Gone—and Where Are We Going?,” The Guardian, November 19, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/19/space-how-far-have-we-gone-and-where-are-we-going

144. Climate Champions, “Green Hydrogen Catapult,” December 8, 2020, https://racetozero.unfccc.int/green-hydrogen-catapult/

145. Ian M. Head and Neil D. Grey, “Microbial Biotechnology 2020: Microbiology of Fossil Fuel Resources,” Microbial Biotechnology, September 2016 9 (5) 626-634), doi:10.1111/1751-7915.12396; S. R. Larter, M. Strous, and Steven Bryant, “Extracting Energy from Petroleum Reservoirs at Large Scale without CO2 Emissions – Is It Possible? Is the Attempt Desirable?,” Geophysical Research Abstracts 18 (2016), http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1817380L

CHAPTER 3

1. For opening keynote see Deborah Gordon, “Confronting Complexity: Technological Oil Shifts and Climate Impacts,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 9, 2013, https://carnegieendowment.org/2013/01/09/welcome-and-confronting-complexity-technological-oil-shifts-and-climate-impacts-pub-50584

2. Unconventional Oil Symposium, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 9, 2013, https://carnegieendowment.org/2013/01/09/unconventional-oil-symposium-event-3888

3. According to the US Environmental Protection Agency, a standard barrel of oil emits 432 kilograms of CO2 and a therm of gas (which equals 100,000 Btu) releases 0.53 kilograms of CO2. See US Environmental Protection Agency, “Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator,” https://www.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gases-equivalencies-calculator-calculations-and-references

4. This chapter uses adapted text from the report “Know Your Oil: Creating a Global Oil-Climate Index,” written by the OCI+ research partners and published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2015.

5. “Supply-side” emissions are the direct or indirect responsibility of the industry itself and are considered Scope 1 and Scope 2 GHGs. Scope 1 GHGs are emitted directly by industry in their operations, while Scope 2 GHGs are indirectly emitted from those who produce inputs that the industry procures for use in oil and gas operations (such as electricity and other purchases).

6. Scope 3 “end-use” GHG emissions are composed of all end uses of the entire slate of products the oil and gas industry sells into the marketplace, such as gasoline for cars and jet fuel for airplanes.

7. “Dr. Adam Brandt,” Stanford Profiles, https://profiles.stanford.edu/adam-brandt

8. Assumes Midway Sunset API gravity of 12.1 degrees (heating value of 5.99 MMBtu per barrel) and uses EPA crude oil emission factors reported in https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-12/documents/emission-factors_nov_2015.pdf

9. In the short term, GHGs are even higher, estimated at 807 kg CO2e/bbl using twenty-year GWPs. See OCI+ Preview Web Tool, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#oil/u.s.-california-midway-sunset?model=00100000&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00

10. Hassan El-Houjeiri, Adam Brandt, and James Duffy, “Open-Source LCA Tool for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Crude Oil Production Using Field Characteristics,” Environmental Science and Technology, May 1, 2013, doi:10.1021/es304570m

11. OPGEE, Stanford University, https://eao.stanford.edu/research-areas/opgee

12. California Air Resources Board, “LCFS Crude Oil Lifecycle Assessment,” https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/documents/lcfs-crude-oil-life-cycle-assessment

13. Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon, Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009).

14. Jonathan Koomey et al., “Getting Smart about Oil in a Warming World,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 5, 2016, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Gordon-Oil_in_a_warming_world1.pdf

15. Argonne National Laboratory, “GREET Model,” https://greet.es.anl.gov/

16. Hao Cai et al., “Well-to-Wheel Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Canadian Oil Sands Products: Implications for U.S. Petroleum Fuels,” Environmental Science and Technology 49, no. 13 (2015): 8219–27, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b01255

17. Deborah Gordon, “The Carbon Contained in Global Oil,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 2012, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/global_oils.pdf

18. Koomey, “Getting Smart about Oil in a Warming World.”

19. “Dr. Joule Bergerson,” University of Calgary, https://www.ucalgary.ca/jbergers/

20. “Jonathan Koomey,” https://www.koomey.com/about.html

21. The California Air Resources Board required OPGEE to be executed in Excel, which is why PRELIM and OPEM were developed in Excel as well.

22. OPGEE: The Oil Production Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimator, https://eao.stanford.edu/research-areas/opgee

23. PRELIM: The Petroleum Refinery Life Cycle Inventory Model, https://www.ucalgary.ca/lcaost/prelim

24. OPEM Version 2.0, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#methodology

25. OPGEE funding sources include the California Air Resources Board, Stanford University School of Earth Sciences, US Department of Energy, Ford, Saudi Aramco, and various NGOs and philanthropic organizations. Brandt and his students have published over twenty-five peer-reviewed papers documenting the use of OPGEE.

26. Adam R. Brandt, Yuchi Sun, and Kourosh Vafi, “Uncertainty in Regional-Average Petroleum GHG Intensities: Countering Information Gaps with Targeted Data Gathering,” Environmental Science and Technology 49, no. 1 (January 6, 2015): 679–86, doi:10.1021/es505376t.

27. Mohammad Masnadi et al., “Global Carbon Intensity of Crude Oil Production,” Science 361, no. 6405 (August 31, 2018), https://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6405/851.summary

28. Adam Brandt, et. al., OPGEE 3.0a Candidate Model,” presentation to the California Air Resources Board, October 14, 2020, https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2020-10/101420presentation_stanford_opgee.pdf; See Github, “arbrandt/OPGEE,” https://github.com/arbrandt/OPGEE

29. While oil companies consider refining as downstream operations, the OCI+ refers to refining and product transport as midstream industrial operations.

30. Liang Jing et al., “Global Carbon Intensity of Crude Oil Refining,” Nature Climate Change, 2020, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0775-3

31. Transport GHG calculations are built into the various OCI+ models, but emissions can be reallocated and regrouped together for purposes of real-world comparisons.

32. Although default crude oil transport between OCI+ fields and Houston is fixed in the BETA Preview version, this is being updated with regional patterns, and users can update this further if oil is shipped elsewhere rather than to Houston, which is the largest refining hub in the world.

33. Default gas transport hubs include Louisiana (North America); Rio (Latin America); Moscow (Russia); Hamburg (European Union); Riyadh (MENA); Lagos (Sub-Saharan Africa); Guangzhou (China); Shanghai (Central Asia); and Perth (Australia-Pacific). Pipeline and sea route distances were estimated for each field modeled in the OCI+.

34. For transport GHGs, hover over the downstream emissions bar for an oil in the OCI Web Tool. For example, California South Belridge is estimated to have transport emissions of 12 kg CO2e per bbl, which is about 2 percent of its total GHGs of 690 kg CO2e per bbl. See https://oci.carnegieendowment.org/#oil/u.s.-california-south-belridge. Note that no transport scenario run on oil resulted in transport GHGs over 5 percent of total emissions. This does not hold for LNG transport GHG emissions, however, which can account for a larger share (15 percent or more) of gas lifecycle emissions. Seehttps://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#oil/australia-gorgon?model=00002000&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00

35. See the web tool https://sea-distances.org/ to compare ports of departure and arrival; Jeremy Bender, “These 8 Narrow Chokepoints Are Critical to the World’s Oil Trade,” Business Insider, April 1, 2015, https://www.businessinsider.com/worlds-eight-oil-chokepoints-2015-4

36. For more details on climate forcing measurements, see National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Climate Forcing,” https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/primer/climate-forcing

37. See, for example, previous IPCC Assessment Reports (referred to as ARs) with their various GWP assignments: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf; https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg1-chapter2-1.pdf; https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf

38. Michelle Cain et al., “Improved Calculation of Warming-Equivalent Emissions for Short-Lived Climate Pollutants,” Nature Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2019, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/335608530_Improved_calculation_of_warming-equivalent_emissions_for_short-lived_climate_pollutants

39. Highly integrated efforts to trace oil and gas pollution sources are on the horizon. See Al Gore, “We Can Solve the Climate Crisis by Tracing Pollution Back to Its Source,” Medium, July 15, 2020, https://medium.com/@algore/we-can-solve-the-climate-crisis-by-tracing-pollution-back-to-its-sources-4f535f91a8dd

40. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, “NASA Carbon Monitoring System,” https://carbon.nasa.gov/

41. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Carbon Monitoring System, https://carbon.nasa.gov/objectives.html?; https://carbon.nasa.gov/app_initiative.html

42. Deborah Gordon and Frances Reuland, “Mapping Measuring, and Managing Methane: The Critical Role of a Potent Climate Pollutant,” Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, November 2019, https://watson.brown.edu/files/watson/imce/news/ResearchBriefs/2019/Methane%20Report-6%20November%202019.pdf

43. For example, see Spherical Analytics that is creating data platforms for Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) risk mitigation that could be accessible to NGOs and the public.

44. David Livingston, “A Blockchain-Based Energy Future,” Aspen Institute and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 31, 2017, https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/08/31/blockchain-based-energy-future-pub-72973

45. For example, see the Methane Intelligence Quotient (MiQ) concept put forth by the Rocky Mountain Institute and SYSTEMIQ, “Global Methane Solutions,” https://www.globalmethanesolutions.org/; also see Taku Ide and T. J. Kirk, “Climate Intelligence: A Clear Path to Insights and Action for the Oil and Gas Sector,” Rocky Mountain Institute, September 2020, which can be found athttps://rmi.org/cae

46. For details on upstream OPGEE data inputs see OCI+ Preview Web Tool Methodology, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#methodology

47. For details on midstream PRELIM data inputs see OCI+ Preview Web Tool Methodology, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#methodology

48. For more information on transport (shipping) emission factors see https://greet.es.anl.gov/. For combustion emission factors see US, Environmental Protection Agency, “Emission Factors for GHG Emission Inventories,” last modified November 19, 2015,https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-11/documents/emission-factors_nov_2015.pdf

49. Currently, the OCI+ assumes that lighter petroleum liquid products (petrochemical feedstocks, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, NGLs, LPG) are transported via pipeline 1,500 miles (2,414 kilometers) and then distributed by heavy-duty tanker 236 miles (280 km) to metropolitan areas. Heavy liquid products (fuel oil, residual fuels) are assumed to travel by rail 1,525 miles (2,455 km) and then by tanker 280 miles (243 nm, 450 km), and by tanker truck 306 miles (493 km). Solid fuels (petroleum coke and sulfur) are assumed to travel 2,895 miles (2,515 nm, 4,660 km) by tanker and then by rail 860 miles (1,380 km). Gas is assumed to move via pipeline 1,275 miles (2,050 km) or transported as LNG in a tanker 6,000 miles (5,215 nm, 9,660 km).

50. For November 2019 CMS workshop agenda, see https://carbon.nasa.gov/meeting_2019/Presentations/CMS%20Applications%20Workshop%202019_Final%20Agenda.pdf

51. Deborah Gordon and Frances Reuland, “Mapping, Measuring, and Monitoring Methane: The Critical Role of a Potent Climate Pollutant,” Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, November 2019, https://watson.brown.edu/files/watson/imce/news/ResearchBriefs/2019/Methane%20Report-6%20November%202019.pdf

52. Eric Kort et al., “Four Corners: The Largest US Methane Anomaly Viewed from Space,” Geophysical Research Letters, September 16, 2014, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL061503

53. Daniel Jacob et al., “Satellite Observations of Atmospheric Methane and Their Value for Quantifying Methane Emissions,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16 (November 18, 2016), https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/14371/2016/

54. Stefan Schwietzke et al., “Upward Revision of Global Fossil Fuel Methane Emissions Based on Isotope Database,” Nature 538 (October 6, 2016), https://www.nature.com/articles/nature19797

55. B. Franco et al., “Evaluating Ethane and Methane Emissions Associated with the Development of Oil and Natural Gas Extraction in North America,” Environmental Research Letters 11, no. 4 (April 7, 2016), https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044010

56. Natalie Kille, “Separation of Methane Emissions from Agricultural and Natural Gas Sources in the Colorado Front Range,” AGU Research Letter, March 21, 2019, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL082132

57. European Space Agency, “Mapping Methane Emissions on a Global Scale,” SciTechDaily, May 4, 2020, https://scitechdaily.com/mapping-methane-emissions-on-a-global-scale/

58. Personal communication with Dr. Daniel Jacob, Harvard University, May 7, 2020. See: Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Group, Harvard University, http://acmg.seas.harvard.edu/presentations.html

59. Christopher Elvidge et al., “Methods for Global Survey of Natural Gas Flaring from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Data,” Energies 9, no. 1 (December 25, 2015): 14, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/288496788_Methods_for_Global_Survey_of_Natural_Gas_Flaring_from_Visible_Infrared_Imaging_Radiometer_Suite_Data

60. Daniel Cusworth et al., “Multi-satellite Imaging of a Gas Well Blowout Provides New Insights for Methane Monitoring,” Geophysical Research Letters 48, Issue 2 (January 28, 2021), https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL090864

61. Christopher Elvidge et al., “VIIRS Night-Time Lights,” International Journal of Remote Sensing 38, no. 21 (June 26, 2017), https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01431161.2017.1342050

62. Christopher Elvidge et al., “Methods for Global Survey of Natural Gas Flaring from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Data,” Energies 9 (2016): 14, doi:10.3390/en9010014. For more information on VIIRS see National Aeronautics and Space Administration, “Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS),” EarthData,  https://earthdata.nasa.gov/earth-observation-data/near-real-time/download-nrt-data/viirs-nrt; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “ Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS),” STAR Calibration Center, https://ncc.nesdis.noaa.gov/VIIRS/

63. Zubin Bamji, “Global Gas Flaring Inches Higher for the First Time in Five Years,” World Bank Blogs, June 14, 2019, https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/global-gas-flaring-inches-higher-first-time-five-years; “Global Gas Flaring Tracker Report,” Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership and World Bank, July 2020, https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/503141595343850009/WB-GGFR-Report-July2020.pdf

64. Ibid.

65. For an image of the OCI+ analysis plus VIIRS flaring map see https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#map?yearSelect=2017&methane=off

66. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Carbon Monitoring System, https://carbon.nasa.gov and https://carbon.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/search_projects.pl

67. “Estimation of Flare Gas Volumes from Satellite Data,” http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/251461483541510567/ACS.pdf; Mikhail Zhizhin, “Five-Year Survey of the U.S. Natural Gas Flaring Observed from Space with VIIRS,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/publications/annual_meetings/2017/slides/5-Zhizhin.pdf;

68. 30 CFR 250.1160. See Legal Information Institute, “When May I Vent or Flare Gas?,” https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/30/250.1160

69. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “What Is Lidar?,” https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/lidar.html. For news on mobile methane sensing system designs for monitoring offshore oil and gas platforms, see Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy, https://arpa-e.energy.gov/technologies/projects/mobile-methane-sensing-system

70. For an image of the OCI+ analysis plus the methane heat map see https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#map?yearSelect=off&methane=on; for details on creating the methane map see Tia Scarpelli et al., “A Global, Gridded Inventory of Methane Emissions from Fuel Exploitation Based on National Reports to the UNFCCC,” Harvard University, National Energy Technology Laboratory, and Jet Propulsion Laboratory, http://acmg.seas.harvard.edu/presentations/2018/TScarpelli_agu_final.pdf

71. Sudhanshu Pandey et al., “Methane Leakage from a Gas Well Blowout in Ohio Detected from Space,” Geophysical Research Abstract 21 (2019), https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2019/EGU2019-18072-1.pdf

72. “Exxon’s XTO Caps Leaking Ohio Gas Well, 20 Days after Blowout,” Reuters, March 7, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-exxon-xto-natgas-ohio/exxons-xto-caps-leaking-ohio-gas-well-20-days-after-blowout-idUSKCN1GJ355

73. Carbon Mapper, a non-profit entity with a mission to guide the adoption of digital public goods that facilitate timely action to mitigate human impacts to Earth’s climate and ecosystems, https://carbonmapper.org/

74. Daniel Jacob et al., “Satellite Observations of Atmospheric Methane and Their Value for Quantifying Methane Emissions,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 14, no. 22 (November 18, 2016), https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/14371/2016/; Carbon Mapper, “Technology,” https://carbonmapper.org/our-mission/technology/

75. Daniel Zavala-Araiza et al., “Reconciling Divergent Estimates of Oil and Gas Methane Emissions,” PNAS 112, no. 51 (December 7, 2015), https://www.pnas.org/content/112/51/15597

76. Riley Duren et al., “California’s Methane Super-Emitters,” Nature 575 (November 6, 2019), https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1720-3?draft=collection

77. United Nations Environment Program, “Global Methane Assessment: Benefits and Costs of Mitigating Methane Emissions,” May 6, 2021, https://www.unep.org/resources/report/global-methane-assessment-benefits-and-costs-mitigating-methane-emissions; United Nations Environment Program, “Air Pollution and Climate Change: Two Sides of the Same Coin,” April 23, 2019, https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/story/air-pollution-and-climate-change-two-sides-same-coin

78. Debra Silverman, “Diesel Exhaust and Lung Cancer—Aftermath of Becoming an IARC Group 1 Carcinogen,” American Journal of Epidemiology 187, no. 6 (June 2018), https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/187/6/1149/4924564

79. US Environmental Protection Agency, “Black Carbon Research,” https://www.epa.gov/air-research/black-carbon-research

80. This report also has a discussion about the interactions between climate change and air pollution. See Deborah Gordon, “The Role of Transportation in Driving Climate Change,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, No. 117, December 2010, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/transport_climate_disruption.pdf

81. Real-time Air Quality Index Map, https://aqicn.org/map/china/

82. Both China and India, along with other Asian countries, vie for the world’s worst air quality. Current rankings can be found at IQAir, https://www.iqair.com/us/world-air-quality-ranking. According to the World Health Organization, in 2018, these were “The Most Polluted Cities in the World, Ranked,” CBS News, https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/the-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world-ranked/2/

83. Deborah Gordon et al., “Know Your Oil: Creating the Oil-Climate Index,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 2015, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/know_your_oil.pdf

84. This range increases dramatically when anthropogenic CO2 is injected and sequestered to produce oil in UAE, in which case upstream emissions are estimated to drop to –200 kg per BOE compared with Duri at +246 kg per BOE. See OCI+ Preview Beta Web Tool (2020), https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#analysis?xSelect=upstream&ySelect=ghgTotal&oiltypeSelect=Heavy%20Oil,CO2%20EOR%20Oil.

85. This range increases to seventeen times when comparing Argentina Vaca Muerta to UK Brent using a twenty-year GWP. See Oil Climate Index + Gas Preview Beta Web Tool (2020), https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#analysis?xSelect=ghgPerMJ&ySelect=upstream&oiltypeSelect=Shale%20Gas,Depleted%20Gas

86. This midstream refining GHG range compares California South Belridge to Nigeria Obagi. See Oil Climate Index + Gas Preview Web Tool under development (2020). For a global assessment see Jing et al., “Global Carbon Intensity of Crude Oil Refining,” Figure 4.

87. Downstream transport GHG estimates are less certain owing to the lack of actual data regarding actual oil, gas, and petroleum product movements. Download the OCI+ Preview workbook at https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#methodology

88. An operator’s GHG emissions arise directly and indirectly from different sources (or scopes). Scope 1 emissions are emitted directly by the operator itself. Scope 2 emissions arise from energy and services that the operator purchases from another source. Scope 3 emissions arise from the use of the products an operator sells. Together, these Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions compose the GHG inventory. See https://ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/Guidance_Handbook_2019_FINAL.pdf

89. OCI+ Beta Web Tool (2020), https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#analysis?xSelect=ghgPerMJ&ySelect=downstream&groupSelect=Oil; https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#analysis?xSelect=ghgPerMJ&ySelect=downstream&groupSelect=Gas

CHAPTER 4

1. For aerial views of petroleum coke, see Getty Images, “Aerial Views of the Oil Sands as Heavy Crude Trades Below U.S. Benchmark,” https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-syncrude-canada-ltd-petroleum-coke-fields-stand-in-this-news-photo/451281082

2. Please see the following information about this 2012 event at the Carnegie Endowment. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Unconventional Oil: Illuminating the Global Paradigm Shift to New Petroleum Fuels,” February 8, 2012, https://carnegieendowment.org/2012/02/08/unconventional-oil-illuminating-global-paradigm-shift-to-new-petroleum-fuels-event-3538

3. See Richard Lattanzio, “Canadian Oil Sands: Life-Cycle Assessments of Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” Congressional Research Service,” March 10, 2014, footnote 10, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42537.pdf. This report cites the Final Environmental Impact Statement (Final EIS) for the Keystone XL Pipeline Project and several studies published after the release of the 2011 Final EIS, including Jacobs Consultancy, EU Pathway Study: Life Cycle Assessment of Crude Oils in a European Context, 2012; IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), Oil Sands, Greenhouse Gases, and U.S. Oil Supply Getting the Numbers Right—2012 Update; Adam Brandt, Upstream GHG Emissions from Canadian Oil Sands as a Feedstock for European Refineries, 2011; and Joule Bergerson et al., Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Current Oil Sands Technologies: Surface Mining and In Situ Applications, 2012. The Final Environmental Impact Statement retained a focus on the data and results from Alberta Energy Research Institute (AERI)/Jacobs 2009, AERI/TIAX 2009, National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) 2008, and NETL 2009.

4. Deborah Gordon, “The Carbon Contained in Global Oils,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 2012, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/global_oils.pdf

5. Alberta Government, “Mines and Minerals Act,” M-17, RSA, 2000, updated July 18, 2019, https://open.alberta.ca/publications/m17#summary

6. US Energy Information Administration, “U.S. Exports of Petroleum Coke,” https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCKEXUS1&f=M

7. Ibid.

8. C-SPAN, “President Carter’s Fireside Chat on Energy,” February 2, 1977, https://www.c-span.org/video/?153913-1/president-carters-fireside-chat-energy

9. Deborah Gordon, Steering a New Course: Transportation, Energy, and the Environment (Washington, DC: Island Press, 1991); Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon, Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009).

10. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, “In Memoriam, Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Eminent Physicist, Inspirational Researcher, Energy Efficiency Maven,” January 27, 2017, https://eta.lbl.gov/about-us/arthur-h-rosenfeld; and Julie Chao, “Art Rosenfeld, California’s Father of Energy Efficiency, Dies at 90,” University of California, January 27, 2017,https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/art-rosenfeld-california-s-godfather-energy-efficiency-dies-90

11. Leo Levinson and Deborah Gordon, “DRIVE+: Promoting Cleaner and More Fuel Efficient Motor Vehicles through a Self-Financing System of State Sales Tax Incentives,” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 9, no. 3 (Summer 1990): 409–15, https://www.jstor.org/stable/3325286?origin=crossref&seq=1

12. Rocky Mountain Institute and NITI Aayog, “Valuing Society First: An Assessment of the Potential for a Feebate Policy in India,” November 2017, https://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/document_publication/Valuing_Society_First_Feebates_Policy.pdf

13. United Nations, “United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals,” https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals.

14. See Figure SPM.3b in the following climate change report: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Summary for Policymakers: Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 °C,” October 6, 2018, https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/graphics/

15. US Energy Information Administration, “Short-term Energy Outlook,” July 7, 2021, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

16. International Energy Agency, “The Oil and Gas Industry in Energy Transitions,” 2020, https://www.iea.org/reports/the-oil-and-gas-industry-in-energy-transitions.

17. International Energy Agency, “Changes in the Average Global Emissions Intensity of Oil and Natural Gas Operations in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2018–2030,” March 9, 2020, https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/changes-in-the-average-global-emissions-intensity-of-oil-and-natural-gas-operations-in-the-sustainable-development-scenario-2018-2030

18. Compares Kuwait Ratawi (high methane settings) to Nigeria Obagi (low methane settings), OCI+ Preview Web Tool, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#oil/kuwait-ratawi?model=20100002&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00 and https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#oil/nigeria-obagi?model=10100001&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00

19. Kristin Oye Gjerde, “Draugen Gas – Flaring or Reinjection,” Norwegian Petroleum Museum, https://draugen.industriminne.no/en/2018/04/27/draugen-gas-flaring-or-reinjection/

20. World Bank Flaring Initiative, http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/603281560185748682/pdf/Gas-flaring-volumes-Top-30-countries-2014-2018.pdf

21. Raphael Calel and Paasha Mahdavi, “Opinion: The Unintended Consequences of Antiflaring Policies—and Measures for Mitigation,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 23 (June 9, 2020), https://www.pnas.org/content/117/23/12503

22. Personal communication with Stephen Ziman, a former Chevron employee and current industry retiree, on July 26, 2020.

23. Chad Wocken et al., “End-Use Technology Study: An Assessment of Alternative Uses for Associated Gas,” University of North Dakota Energy and Environmental Research Center, September 13, 2012, https://undeerc.org/bakken/pdfs/CW_Tech_Study_July12.pdf

24. Amy Dalrymple, “Study Finds Storing Natural Gas Underground Feasible,” Bismarck Tribune, June 12, 2019, https://bismarcktribune.com/bakken/study-finds-storing-natural-gas-underground-feasible/article_929ff797-7e88-5d55-9d68-9b3cd42c8992.html

25. US Department of Energy, “Combined Heat and Power Technology Fact Sheet Series,” DOE/EE-1329, July 2016, https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/09/f33/CHP-Microturbines_0.pdf

26. Compares Norway Ekofisk to Texas Spraberry, OCI+ Preview Web Tool,  https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#compare/norway-ekofisk/u.s.-texas-spraberry?model=00100000

27. Christophe McGlade et al., “What Ever Happened to Enhanced Oil Recovery?,” US International Energy Agency, November 28, 2018, https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/november/whatever-happened-to-enhanced-oil-recovery.html

28. The world’s largest EOR project using CO2 is Brazil’s Lula oil field operated by Petrobras. Others are under way in Canada, China, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Croatia. See McGlade et al., “What Ever Happened to Enhanced Oil Recovery?”

29. US Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory, “Carbon Dioxide Enhance Oil Recovery,” March 2010, https://www.netl.doe.gov/sites/default/files/netl-file/CO2_EOR_Primer.pdf

30. Compares United Arab Emirates to Wyoming LaBarge CO2 EOR, using OCI+ Preview Web Tool, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#compare/uae-man-made-co2-eor-example/u.s.-wyoming-natural-co2-eor-example

31. The world’s largest EOR project using CO2 is Brazil’s Lula oil field operated by Petrobras. Others are underway in Canada, China, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Croatia.

32. Christopher Smith, “ADNOC Expanding Carbon Dioxide, EOR Capabilities,” Oil & Gas Journal, November 14, 2019, https://www.ogj.com/drilling-production/production-operations/article/14072017/adnoc-expanding-carbon-dioxide-eor-capacities

33. Michael Parker et al., “CO2 Management at ExxonMobil’s LaBarge Field, Wyoming, USA,” Energy Procedia 4 (2011): 5455–70, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876610211008101

34. “ExxonMobil Shute Creek Treating Facility,” Subpart RR Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification Plan, submitted to US Environmental Protection Agency, February 2018, https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-06/documents/shutecreekmrvplan.pdf

35. Clea Kolster et al., “CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery: A Catalyst for Gigatonne-Scale Carbon Capture and Storage Deployment?,” Energy and Environmental Science 12 (2017), https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2017/ee/c7ee02102j#!divAbstract; and US International Energy Agency, “Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: A Critical Tool in the Climate Energy Toolbox,” https://www.iea.org/topics/carbon-capture-and-storage

36. Assumes estimated Permian water-to-oil ratio is 17:1 and oil production volume is 555,000 bpd. Olympic pools contain approximately 450,000 gallons water per ten-lane Olympic pool with regulation dimensions; see FINA Facility Rules: 2015–2017, https://fina.org/sites/default/files/finafacilities_rules.pdf. There are forty-two gallons per barrel; OCI+ Preview Web Tool, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCI+Plus/

37. For example, Pennsylvania’s Marcellus (Gas) Formation also generates high volumes of produced water. In the United States, on average, ten barrels of water are produced for every barrel of crude and ninety-seven barrels of water for every MMcf of gas. See E. Allison and B. Mandler, “Water in the Oil and Gas Industry,” American Geosciences Institute, 2018, https://www.americangeosciences.org/geoscience-currents/water-oil-and-gas-industry (footnote 3, Tables 4-5 and 4-6); Argonne National Laboratory, “Produced Water Volumes and Management Practices in the United States,” 2009, https://www.circleofblue.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/ANL_EVS__R09_produced_water_volume_report_2437.pdf

38. John Kemp, “Water Is the Biggest Output of U.S. Oil and Gas Wells,” Reuters, November 18, 2014, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-shale-water-kemp-idUSKCN0J223P20141118

39. Richard Nemec, “Draft California Rules for Oil/Gas Steam, Water and Storage Released,” Natural Gas Intelligence, January 22, 2016, https://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/105088-draft-california-rules-for-oilgas-steam-water-and-storage-released

40. Compares California Wilmington at 125 percent water intensity to 10 percent water intensity, OCI 2.0, Archived Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, https://oci.carnegieendowment.org/#oil/u.s.-california-wilmington?opgee=run030&prelim=run01&showCoke=1 and https://oci.carnegieendowment.org/#oil/u.s.-california-wilmington?opgee=run010&prelim=run01&showCoke=1

41. Deborah Gordon and Katherine Garner, “Texas’s Oil and Water Tightrope,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 11, 2014, https://carnegieendowment.org/2014/03/11/texas-s-oil-and-water-tightrope-pub-54879; Somini Sengupta and Weiyi Cai, “A Quarter of Humanity Faces Looming Water Crises,” New York Times, August 6, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/06/climate/world-water-stress.html

42. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, “Wastewater Injection and Induced Seismicity,” September 22, 2016, https://cires.colorado.edu/news/wastewater-injection-and-induced-seismicity

43. US Geological Survey, “Does Fracking Cause Earthquakes?,” https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/does-fracking-cause-earthquakes?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products; University of Texas at Austin, “Where Water Goes after Fracking Is Tied to Earthquake Risk,” Science Daily, November 1, 2018, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/11/181101133823.htm

44. US Department of Energy, “Produced Water R&D,” https://www.energy.gov/fe/science-innovation/oil-gas/shale-gas-rd/produced-water-rd

45. Amit Kumar et al., “Lithium Recovery from Oil and Gas Produced Water: A Need for a Growing Energy Industry,” ACS Energy Letters 4, no. 6 (June 2019),  https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333643378_Lithium_Recovery_from_Oil_and_Gas_Produced_Water_A_Need_for_a_Growing_Energy_Industry; see also “MGX Minerals and Eureka Resources Announce Joint Venture to Recover Lithium from Produced Water in Eastern United States,” PRNewsWire, March 5, 2019, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/mgx-minerals-and-eureka-resources-announce-joint-venture-to-recover-lithium-from-produced-water-in-eastern-united-states-300806407.html

46. Deborah Gordon and Madhav Acharya, “Oil Shake-Up: Refining Transitions in a Low- Carbon Economy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 3,  2018,  https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/04/03/oil-shake-up-refining-transitions-in-low-carbon-economy-pub-75954

47. Kavan Motazedi, Jessica Abella, and Joule Bergerson, “Techno-Economic Evaluation of Technologies to Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions at North American Refineries,” Environmental Science and Technology 51, no. 3 (2017), https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.est.6b04606

48. Statista, “Global Refinery Capacity for Crude Oil from 1970 to 2019,” https://www.statista.com/statistics/264333/global-refinery-capacity-for-crude-oil/

49. Compares Indonesia Duri baseline to 100 percent renewable hydrogen, OCI+ Preview Web Tool, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#oil/indonesia-duri?model=00100000&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00 and https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#oil/indonesia-duri?model=00120000&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00

50. US Department of Energy, “Hydrogen Production: Natural Gas Reforming,” https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-production-natural-gas-reforming

51. Michael Liebreich, “Beyond Three Thirds, the Road to Deep Decarbonization,” Bloomberg New Energy Finance, March 13, 2018, https://about.bnef.com/blog/liebreich-beyond-three-thirds-road-deep-decarbonization/

52. Rotten Tomatoes, “The Graduate Quotes,” https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/graduate/quotes/

53. Compares Qatar Idd El Shargi baseline to low methane and zero natural gas combustion, OCI+ Preview Web Tool, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#oil/qatar-idd-el-shargi?model=01100001&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00

54. Water, air quality, and public health concerns are associated with petrochemical production. Petrochemical facilities release an array of organic compounds, including known carcinogens such as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) along with persistent organic pollutants (POPs) that do not break down over time. And petrochemical exposure can be dangerous and pervasive, occurring through inhalation, skin absorption, and ingestion. See Michael Corkery, “Deluged by Plastics but Bustling to Make More,” New York Times, August 12, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/12/business/energy-environment/plastics-shell-pennsylvania-plant.html

55. Wang Tao, “Managing China’s Petcoke Problem,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 2015, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/petcoke.pdf

56. See OCI+ Web Tool for Canadian oil sands with petcoke production turned on and off: https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#oil/canada-athabasca-dc-sco?model=00000100&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00; and comparing oil sands to Saudi Ghawar: https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#compare/saudi-arabia-ghawar/canada-athabasca-dc-sco?model=00000100

57. There are different petcoke grades. The most degraded, fuel-grade petcoke, which is high in sulfur and heavy metals, is produced from oil sands. See Suncor, “Petcoke,”  https://www.suncor.com/en-CA/about-us/supply-and-trading/petroleum-coke

58. Associated Press, “Alberta Oil Sands Waste Exported by American Refineries to Pollution-Choked India,” December 1, 2017, https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/exporting-pollution-american-refineries-oilsands-india-1.4428065

59. Andrea Thompson, “The Science and History of Oil Spills,” Live Science, April 23, 2010, https://www.livescience.com/9885-faq-science-history-oil-spills.html

60. International Gas Union, “Global Gas Trade, 2000–2015,” https://www.igu.org/resources-data

61. International Gas Union, “2019 World LNG Report,” https://www.igu.org/app/uploads-wp/2019/06/IGU-Annual-Report-2019_23.pdf; and CEDIGAZ, “The Global Gas Market in 2018,” https://www.cedigaz.org/the-global-gas-market-in-2018. For LNG conversion units, see https://qp.com.qa/en/Pages/ConversionFactor.aspx

62. International Gas Union, “2019 World LNG Report,” https://www.igu.org/app/uploads-wp/2019/06/IGU-Annual-Report-2019_23.pdf

63. For example, see Australia Gorgon with and without LNG transport using the OCI+ Preview, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#oil/australia-gorgon?model=00100000&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00

64. Mohammad Masnadi and Adam Brandt, “Climate Impacts of Oil Extraction Increase Significantly with Oilfield Age,” Nature Climate Change 7 (2017): 551–56, https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3347

65. James Chen, “Brent Blend,” Investopedia, August 20, 2018, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/brentblend.asp; David Braziel, “Lift Me Up! The Brent Complex, Linkages That Make It Work and Implications for Global Markets, Part 2,” RBN, June 15, 2020,https://rbnenergy.com/lift-me-up-the-brent-complex-linkages-that-make-it-work-and-implications-for-global-markets-part-2

66. UK Brent plotting total processed oil, NGLs, and gas (1,750 BOE/d) versus only oil (370 BOE/d), the difference of which amounts to 1,380 BOE/d of NGLs and gas, OCI+ Preview Web Tool, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#analysis?xSelect=crudeProductionVolume&ySelect=productionVolume&oiltypeSelect=Depleted%20Gas

67. Compare UK Brent to PA Marcellus using twenty-year GWPs, OCI+ Preview Web Tool, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#oil/uk-brent and https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#compare/u.s.-pennsylvania-marcellus/uk-brent

68. Ann Scarborough Bull and Milton Love, “Worldwide Oil and Gas Platform Decommissioning: A Review of Practices and Reefing Options,” Ocean & Coastal Management 168 (February 1, 2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2018.10.024

69. GlassPoint is working with oil companies to generate zero-GHG steam through some of the world’s largest solar thermal projects. See GlassPoint, https://www.glasspoint.com/;  https://www.glasspoint.com/technology/lowest-cost/; https://www.glasspoint.com/belridgesolar/; and BusinessWire, “Aera Energy and GlassPoint to Build California’s Largest Solar Energy Project at Kern County’s Belridge Oilfield,” November 29, 2017, https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20171129006025/en/Aera-Energy-GlassPoint-Build-California%E2%80%99s-Largest-Solar

70. Adam Brandt, “Why Are California’s Oils Some of the World’s Dirtiest: A Panel with the Oil-Climate Index Team,” April 15, 2019, https://west.stanford.edu/research/works/why-are-californias-oils-some-worlds-dirtiest-panel-oil-climate-index-team

71. Jingfan Wang et al., “Potential Solar Energy Use in the Global Petroleum Sector,” Energy 118 (January 1, 2017), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.10.107

72. Minimizing fossil fuel inputs includes more than solar steam, the only option currently modeled. Comparing solar steam at 0 percent and 75 percent, OCI+ Preview Web Tool, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#oil/u.s.-california-midway-sunset?model=00100000&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00 and https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#oil/u.s.-california-midway-sunset?model=00100020&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00

73. Compare Argentina Vaca Muerta low to high methane, OCI+ Preview Web Tool, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#oil/argentina-vaca-muerta?model=02100002&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00 and https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#oil/argentina-vaca-muerta?model=01100001&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00

74. John Wihbey, “Pros and Cons of Fracking: 5 Key Issues,” Yale Climate Connections, May 27, 2015, https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2015/05/pros-and-cons-of-fracking-5-key-issues/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw4s7qBRCzARIsAImcAxZHmoHg2b4ltWxdRmEd13bd4cA4Y83K3VjqAg2qJ_dbvhPBnZifRlQaAh7xEALw_wcB

75. Hector Herrera, “The Legal Status of Fracking Worldwide,” Global Network for Human Rights and the Environment, January 6, 2020, https://gnhre.org/2020/01/06/the-legal-status-of-fracking-worldwide-an-environmental-law-and-human-rights-perspective/

76. Robert Jackson et al., “The Environmental Costs and Benefits of Fracking,” Annual Review of Environment and Resources 39 (2014), https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev-environ-031113-144051; David Roberts, “Fracking May Be a Bigger Climate Problem Than We Thought,” Vox, August 16,  2019,https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/8/15/20805136/climate-change-fracking-methane-emissions

77. Robert Howarth, “Ideas and Perspectives: Is Shale Gas a Major Driver of Recent Increase in Global Atmospheric Methane?,” Biogeosciences 16 (August 14, 2019), https://www.biogeosciences.net/16/3033/2019/

78. Rob Jackson et al., “Increasing Anthropogenic Methane Emissions Aris Equally from Agricultural and Fossil Fuel Sources,” Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 7 (July 2020), https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9ed2

79. International Energy Agency, “Methane Tracker 2020,” March 2020, https://www.iea.org/reports/methane-tracker-2020/methane-abatement-options

80. Carbon capture currently only applies to CO2 and not other GHGs. The “S” can also stand for “sequestration,” permanently storing CO2 that is captured.

81. When CCS techniques also utilize the captured carbon, this is known as carbon capture, utilization, and storage.

82. Louise Jeffery et al., “Options for Supporting Carbon Dioxide Removal,” New Climate Institute, July 2020, https://www.c2g2.net/wp-content/uploads/Options-for-supporting-Carbon-Dioxide-Removal_July_2020.pdf

83. International Energy Agency, “Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage,” June 16, 2020,  https://www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/carbon-capture-utilisation-and-storage

84. U.S. Wyoming Natural CO2 EOR compared to the United Arab Emirates man-made CO2 EOR, OCI+ Web Tool Preview, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#compare/u.s.-wyoming-natural-co2-eor-example/uae-man-made-co2-eor-example

85. Saudi Ghawar production only emits an estimated 21 kg CO2e/BOE out of a total 576 kg CO2e/BOE, OCI+ Web Tool Preview, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#oil/saudi-arabia-ghawar

86. “Map of CCS Projects in Europe,” International Oil and Gas Producers, https://www.iogp.org/bookstore/product/map-of-ccs-projects-in-europe/

87. Deborah Gordon, “Understanding Climate Engineering,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 21, 2017, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Understanding_Climate_Engineering_Web.pdf; Also see Daisy Dunne, “Explainer: Six Ideas to Limit Global Warming with Solar Engineering,” CarbonBrief, May 9, 2018,https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-six-ideas-to-limit-global-warming-with-solar-geoengineering

88. William Safire, “Location, Location, Location,” New York Times, June 26, 2009,  https://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/28/magazine/28FOB-onlanguage-t.html?auth= login-email

89. See, for example, Sergey Budovicz et al., “Cryovolcanism on the Earth: Origin of a Spectacular Crater in the Yamal Peninsula (Russia),” Scientific Reports, September 10, 2018, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-31858-9/; and Stephanie Pappas, “Oozing Methane Blasts Holes in Siberian Tundra,” LiveScience, July 6,  2017,https://www.livescience.com/59705-oozing-methane-blasts-craters-in-siberian-tundra.html

90. Jason G. Goldman, “Ecuador Has Begun Drilling for Oil in the World’s Richest Rainforest,” Vox, January 14, 2017, https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/1/14/14265958/ecuador-drilling-oil-rainforest

91. Kelly Swing, “Day of Reckoning for Ecuador’s Biodiversity,” Nature 469 (January 2011), https://www.researchgate.net/publication/49768588_Day_of_reckoning_for_Ecuador’s_biodiversity

92. According to the Oil Production Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimator (OPGEE), baseline drilling and development combustion GHGs as low as 0.03 g CO2e/MJ are estimated in conventional ecosystems in Azerbaijan or offshore.

93. OPGEE estimates baseline drilling and development land use and combustion GHGs much larger in fragile ecosystems than other ecosystems (where GHGs hover at zero). For the Indonesia Duri and Minas oil fields (which are located in the Sumatran rainforest), drilling and development emissions are estimated at 6 g CO2e/MJ, and for Alaska North Slope (located in the Arctic permafrost) emissions are estimated at 5 g CO2e/MJ. Compare these GHGs to Norway Ekofisk (an offshore field) with drilling and development emissions estimated at 0.03 g CO2e/MJ. See OPGEE3.0a Beta to do these runs, https://github.com/arbrandt/OPGEE/blob/master/model/OPGEE_3.0a_BETA.xlsm

94. Assumes upstream GHGs from Russia Urengoyskoye (located in Siberian permafrost) with high venting and fugitive emissions values estimated at 268 kg CO2e/BOE, using the OCI+ Preview Web Tool, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#oil/russia-urengoyskoye?model=02100002&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00

95. Note that a gigatonne equals 1 billion tonnes. For reference, Saudi Ghawar, which supplies about 5 percent of the world’s oil, has total lifecycle GHGs estimated at just under 1 Gt CO2e a year. Adam Brandt et al., “Climate-Wise Choices in a World of Oil Abundance,” Environmental Research Letters 13 (April 5, 2018), https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaae76; https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#total-emissions

96. Note: Using a twenty-year GWP, estimated GHG reductions in refining of 35 GtCO2e are assumed to increase to 50 Gt. See Liang Jing et al., “Carbon Intensity of Global Crude Oil Refining and Mitigation Potential,” Nature Climate Change 10 (2020), https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0775-3?proof=t

97. Jeff Tollefson, “IPCC Says Limiting Global Warming to 1.5 °C Will Require Drastic Action,” Nature, October 8, 2018, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06876-2

98. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Global Warming of 1.5 °C,” 2018, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15_SPM_version_stand_alone_LR.pdf. Note that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 770 Gt CO2 emission limit applies to CO2 only and is one of many estimates that continue to change based on different models according to a range of probabilities of staying below the 1.5 °C threshold. Also see AirClim, “How Much More Can Be Omitted?,” https://www.airclim.org/how-much-more-can-be-emitted; UN Environment, “Emissions Gap Report 2018,” November 2018, http://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26895/EGR2018_FullReport_EN.pdf

99. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2018, Chapter 11, https://www.iea.org/weo2018/

100. For assumptions regarding this estimate, see comments and sources in Table 4.3.

101. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2018, Appendix A.3, https://www.iea.org/weo2018/

102. Calculated based on oil and gas sector emission savings of 8.6 Gt compared to International Energy Agency current policies estimate of 24.5 Gt in 2040. See ibid.

103. Mohammad Masnadi et al., “Global Carbon Intensity of Crude Oil Production,” Science 361 (August 2018), https://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6405/851.summary; Liang Jing et al., “Carbon Intensity of Global Crude Oil Refining and Mitigation Potential,” Nature Climate Change 10 (2020)

104. Jan C. Minx et al., “Negative Emissions—Part 1: Research Landscape and Synthesis,” Environmental Research Letters 13, no. 6 (May 22, 2018), https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9b; US Department of Energy, “Demand: Effects of Travel Reduction and Efficient Driving on Transportation: Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” March 2013, https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/55635.pdf

105. Benjamin Storrow, E&E News, “Can a Big Oil Company Go Carbon-Free?,” Scientific American, December 6, 2019, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-a-big-oil-company-go-carbon-free/

106. For example, the US Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program covers only those sources over 25,000 metric tonnes CO2e per year; see https://www.epa.gov/ghgreporting/ghgrp-and-oil-and-gas-industry. See also Transparency Pathway Initiative, http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/tpi/; Carbon Disclosure Project, https://www.cdp.net/en; and Carbon Tracker, https://www.carbontracker.org/

107. Rachel Adams-Heard, “What Happens When an Oil Giant Walks Away,” Bloomberg Green, April 15, 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-tracking-carbon-emissions-BP-hilcorp/

CHAPTER 5

1. Office of Congressional Ethics, “David Skaggs, Chairman,” https://oce.house.gov/about/board-and-staff/david-skaggs-chairman

2. James Hansen et al., “Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide,” Science 213, no. 4511 (August 28, 1981), https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1981/1981_Hansen_ha04600x.pdf

3. “Congressional Testimony of Dr. James Hansen,” before the US Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, June 23, 1988, https://www.sealevel.info/1988_Hansen_Senate_Testimony.html#

4. Ozone-Forming Potential of Reformulated Gasoline (Washington, DC: National Academies of Press, 1999), https://www.nap.edu/download/9461

5. ARCO was formed in 1966 by the merger of Atlantic Refining and the Richfield Oil Corporation when they bought Sinclair Oil Corporation. Through the 1980s, ARCO was one of the largest global oil companies. ARCO was bought by BP in 2000. In 2013, BP sold ARCO and its other Southern California assets to Tesoro (which was renamed Andeavor in 2017). Marathon Petroleum acquired the entire holding (including ARCO) in 2018. https://www.britannica.com/topic/Atlantic-Richfield-Company

6. Matthew Wald, “ARCO Offers New Gasoline to Cut Up to 15% of Old Cars’ Pollution,” New York Times, August 16, 1989, https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1989/08/16/001489.html?pageNumber=1

7. Rachel Adams-Heard, “What Happens When an Oil Giant Walks Away?” Bloomberg Green, April 15, 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-tracking-carbon-emissions-BP-hilcorp/

8. ExxonMobil, “Our History,” https://www.exxon.com/en/history

9. Note that the OCI+ considers oil refining as a midstream operation to disaggregate these GHGs from downstream marketing activities that determine all end use emissions.

10. Natural Resources Governance Institute, “National Oil Company Database,” December 2019, https://www.nationaloilcompanydata.org/indicator

11. Qatar Petroleum, for example, operates in joint ventures with Eni, Shell, and others worldwide. See https://qp.com.qa/en/MediaCentre/Lists/QPPublications/Attachments/29/QP%202018%20Sustainability%20Report.pdf; Saudi Aramco is also considered an INOC. For more information on INOCs, see Peter Ramsay, “The Rise of the Mid-East ‘INOC,’ ” Petroleum Economist, March 6, 2020, https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/politics-economics/middle-east/2020/the-rise-of-the-mid-east-inoc

12. Author’s calculations using individual company annual financial reports, along with other databases, including Oil & Gas Journal, OGJ150, September 3, 2018, 24 and 41, https://digital.ogj.com/ogjournal/20180903/MobilePagedReplica.action?pm=2&folio=6#pg8; c&en, Top 50 Chemical Companies or 2018, https://cen.acs.org/business/finance/CENs-Global-Top-50-chemical/97/i30. It is reported that NOCs collectively have oil and gas assets valued at over $3 trillion; see Joshua Olufemi, “National Oil Companies with $3.1 Trillion in Assets Dangerously Under-Scrutinised—NRGI,” Premium Times, July 31, 2019, https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/327048-national-oil-companies-with-3-1-trillion-in-assets-dangerously-under-scrutinised-nrgi.html

13. An indicator of changing valuation in the oil and gas industry according to the OGJ150 share values follows: $2,021 per share on October 9, 2018, $707 on March 19, 2020 (a 65% drop in overall value), and $1,225 on January 14, 2021 (a 73% rise in overall value). See OGJ150, Financial Content Services, https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/quote/historical?Symbol=CIX%3AOGJ200&Month=10&Range=1&Year=2021

14. Independent petroleum companies (known as wildcatters) are common in the United States and are not listed in the table. Examples include Devon, EOG, Apache, Noble, Pioneer, Continental, Chesapeake, and Southwestern, all of which are located in the United States and have asset values ranging from $10 to $30 billion. Several chemical companies are independent of IOCs, including DowDuPont, BASF, Formosa, Mitsubishi, LG, Ineos, and LyondelleBasell, with asset values from $22 to $192 billion. About 9,000 independent producers drill over 90 percent of oil and gas wells in the United States, accounting for 54 percent of America’s oil production and 85 percent of its natural gas and natural gas liquid production. See Independent Petroleum Association of America, “About IPAA,” https://www.ipaa.org/independent-producers/. Note that the US Internal Revenue Service even publishes a tax definition for independents that produce fewer than 75,000 barrels per day of oil or have retail sales less than $5 million a year. See US Internal Revenue Service, “4.41.1 Oil and Gas Handbook,” December 3, 2013, https://www.irs.gov/irm/part4/irm_04-041-001

15. Oil & Gas Journal, OGJ150, September 3, 2018; Oil & Gas Journal, “O&GJ Refining Survey 2018”; OGJ100, September 3, 2018. For the above referenced OGJ publications see https://digital.ogj.com/ogjournal/20180903/MobilePagedReplica.action?pm=2&folio=Cover#pg1; NRGI National Oil Company Database, https://resourcegovernance.org/analysis-tools/publications/national-oil-company-database; Platts Top250 Rankings, https://www.spglobal.com/platts/top250

16. Visualcapitalist.com, “Chart of the Week: Big Oil” (2015 data), https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-17-Trillion-Oil-Industry-Isnt-Going-Anywhere.html

17. Investopedia, “What Percentage of the Global Economy Consists of the Oil and Gas Drilling Sector?,” September 10, 2018, https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/030915/what-percentage-global-economy-comprised-oil-gas-drilling-sector.asp

18. Oil & Gas Journal, “OGJ150: Leading Oil and Gas Companies in the US” and “OGJ100: Leading Oil and Gas Companies Outside the US,” September 3, 2018, 34–45.

19. BP, Oil and Natural Gas Prices, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/oil.html#oil-prices and https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/natural-gas.html#natural-gas-prices

20. For OCI+ calculations between min and max values, for oil and gas producers see OCI+ Preview webtool, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#supply-chain?model=00000000&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00&stepSelect=upstream&sortSelect=true

21. Ibid.

22. For example, compare China Sulige shipping with and without LNG transport, OCI+ Preview web tool, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#supply-chain?model=00000000&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00&stepSelect=midstream&sortSelect=true; https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#supply-chain?model=00002000&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00&stepSelect=midstream&sortSelect=true

23. See, for example, IPIECA, “Sustainability Reporting Guidance for the Oil and Gas Industry,” March 2020, https://www.ipieca.org/media/5110/ipieca_sustainability-guide_2020_mod3-cce.pdf; American Petroleum Institute, “Compendium of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Methodologies for the Oil and Gas Industry,” 2011, https://www.api.org/~/media/Files/EHS/climate-change/GHG_industry-guidelines-IPIECA.pdf; World Resources Institute and World Business Council for Sustainable Development, “GHG Accounting Protocol,” https://ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/standards/ghg-protocol-revised.pdf; and ISO, “Specification with Guidance at the Organizational Level for Quantification and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals,” 2006.

24. World Resources Institute and World Business Council for Sustainable Development, “GHG Accounting Protocol,” https://ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/standards/ghg-protocol-revised.pdf

25. Efforts are underway to align corporate commitments that are reported on a different basis. See Simon Dietz et al., “Carbon Performance of European Integrated Oil and Gas Companies: Briefing Paper,” Transition Pathway Initiative, May 2020, https://www.transitionpathwayinitiative.org/publications/58.pdf?type=Publication

26. BP, “BP Sets Ambition for Net Zero by 2050, Fundamentally Changing Organization to Deliver,” February 12, 2020, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bernard-looney-announces-new-ambition-for-bp.html

27. BP, “From International Oil Company to Integrated Energy Company: BP Sets Out Strategy for Decade of Delivery towards Net Zero Ambition,” August 4, 2020, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/from-international-oil-company-to-integrated-energy-company-bp-sets-out-strategy-for-decade-of-delivery-towards-net-zero-ambition.html

28. Will Kennedy, Laura Hurst, and Kevin Crowley, “BP Walks Away from the Oil Supermajor Model It Helped Crete,” Bloomberg Green, August 4, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-04/bp-walks-away-from-the-oil-supermajor-model-it-helped-create

29. The EU nations (which excludes the United Kingdom, Norway, and Russia) are entirely dependent on imported oil. This holds for gas and petroleum products as well, as discussed in chapter 6. See “Oil and Petroleum Products - A Statistical Overview,” Eurostat, June 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Oil_and_petroleum_products_-_a_statistical_overview&oldid=315177#

30. Corbin Hiar, “BP, Facing Scrutiny, Renews Bold Climate Goals,” ClimateWire, June 4, 2020, https://www.eenews.net/stories/1063312133

31. “Petroleum Refining & Marketing,” Reliance Industries, https://www.ril.com/OurBusinesses/PetroleumRefiningAndMarketing.aspx. Assumes 83 million bpd crude oil portion of refinery throughput in 2019, see N. Sonnichsen, “Oil Refinery Capacity Worldwide by Leaking Country, 2010–2019,” Statista, August 17, 2020,https://www.statista.com/statistics/273579/countries-with-the-largest-oil-refinery-capacity/#

32. BP, “Reliance and BP to Create Major World-Class Fuels Partnership for India’s Fast-Growing Market,” August 6, 2019, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/reliance-and-bp-to-create-major-world-class-fuels-partnership-for-indias-fast-growing-market.html

33. Author’s calculations based on Jamnagar’s 1.24 mbpd refining capacity with estimated average petroleum product Scope 3 emissions of 450 kilograms of CO2e per BOE. For petroleum product emission factors, see Deborah Gordon et al., “Know Your Oil,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 11, 2015, https://carnegieendowment.org/2015/03/11/know-your-oil-creating-global-oil-climate-index-pub-59285

34. Chevron, “2019 Performance Data,” https://www.chevron.com/-/media/shared-media/documents/2019-sustainabilty-performance-data.pdf; https://www.chevron.com/corporate-responsibility/climate-change/greenhouse-gas-management; Shell, “Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” https://www.shell.com/sustainability/sustainability-reporting-and-performance-data/performance-data/greenhouse-gas-emissions.html

35. Ibid.

36. CDP, “Beyond the Cycle: Which Oil and Gas Companies Are Ready for the Low-Carbon Transition?,” www.cdp.net/en/investor/sector-research/oil-and-gas-report

37. Dietz et al., “Carbon Performance of European Integrated Oil and Gas Companies”; for detailed information on Shell and Eni, see https://www.transitionpathwayinitiative.org/tpi/publications/59.pdf?type=Publication; and for an assessment of the climate competencies of fifty oil and gas companies, see https://www.transitionpathwayinitiative.org/tpi/sectors/oil-gas

38. Norman Wisely and Munir Hassan, “Energy Transition: Evolution or Revolution?,” CMS, January 2020, https://cms.law/en/int/publication/energy-transition-evolution-or-revolution

39. Shell, “What Are Shell Scenarios?,” https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/what-are-scenarios.html

40. Shell, “Management Day 2019,” June 4–5, 2019, slides 43 and 81, https://www.shell.com/investors/news-and-media-releases/investor-presentations/2019-investor-presentations/management-day-2019/_jcr_content/par/textimage_af3b.stream/1572529480536/e35f4f28f2cda0b5769605468243b3538b1a3ec8/shell-management-day2019-webcast-presentation-slides-updated.pdf

41. Ibid., slides 43, 57, and 66.

42. “PBF Energy to Buy Shell’s Martinez, California Refinery for up to $1Billion,” Reuters, June 11, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pbfenergy-shell-martinez/pbf-energy-to-buy-shells-martinez-california-oil-refinery-for-up-to-1-billion-idUSKCN1TC2M7

43. Jessica Resnick-alt, et. al., “Shell Plans to Exit California with ExxonMobil,” Reuters, July 1, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-shell-plans-exit-california-joint-venture-with-exxon-mobil-sources-2021-07-01/

44. Shell, “A Better Life with a Healthy Planet: Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions,” May 2016, https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/a-better-life-with-a-healthy-planet.html

45. Note that Shell assigns the lowest GHG reduction potential to its own operating emissions. See “Lowering Our Net Carbon Footprint,” Shell Sustainability Report 2019, https://reports.shell.com/sustainability-report/2019/sustainable-energy-future/net-carbon-footprint.html

46. “Repsol Will Be a Net Zero Emissions Company by 2050,” December 2, 2019, https://www.repsol.com/en/press-room/press-releases/2019/repsol-will-be-a-net-zero-emissions-company-by-2050.cshtml

47. Katherine Dunn, “Shell Becomes the Largest Global Energy Company to Commit to a Net-Zero Emissions Goal by 2050,” Fortune, April 16, 2020, https://fortune.com/2020/04/16/net-zero-emissions-shell-oil-industry-gas/

48. “Universite Total: Talking about the Energy Transition,” https://www.total.com/media/video/universite-total-talking-about-energy-transition

49. Philippe Roos, “Q&A: Mathieu Soulas on Total’s Transition Strategy,” EI New Energy, July 16, 2020, http://www.energyintel.com/pages/eig_article.aspx?DocId=1077894

50. “From Net Zero Ambition to Total Strategy,” Total, September 30, 2020, https://www.total.com/media/news/press-releases/2020-strategy-outlook-presentation?source=content_type:react|first_level_url:news|section:main_content|button:body_link

51. Francois de Beaupuy, “Total to Replace Oil Refinery with Clean Fuel and Plastic Plants,” September 24, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-24/total-to-replace-oil-refinery-with-clean-fuel-and-plastic-plants

52. Bjorn Otto Sverdrup, “My Oil Firm Wants Results from COP21. But Not the Kind You Might Expect,” The Guardian, November 27, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/27/cop-21-paris-climate-talks-low-carbon-oil-statoil

53. Harald Eraker et al., “Pure Norwegian Oil?,” NRK, October 3, 2016, https://www.nrk.no/dokumentar/xl/ren_-norsk-olje_-1.13150883

54. For more information on this particular case study for Ekofisk, see Julia Benz, “Leading Emission Reduction Opportunities and Renewable Technologies for Oil and Gas Production,” Senior thesis, Brown University, March 26, 2021.

55. The initial Phase 1 and 2 OCI+ assessments of Norwegian oil fields can be found at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, http://oci.carnegieendowment.org/#supply-chain. Note that in a recent analysis Norway places sixth lowest in its volume-weighted oil production GHG intensity. But this only considers Norwegian production, not lifecycle GHGs or Equinor operations beyond Norway. See Mohammad Masnadi et al., “Global Carbon Intensity of Crude Oil Production,” Science 361, no. 6405 (August 31, 2018). In the updated OCI+, Norway Ekofisk is estimated at 19 percent lower in lifecycle GHGs than Saudi Ghawar; see https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#compare/norway-ekofisk/saudi-arabia-ghawar

56. See NRK documentary, minute 43: https://tv.nrk.no/serie/brennpunkt/2016/MDDP11001016/avspiller

57. Norwegian Petroleum, “Exports of Oil and Gas,” https://www.norskpetroleum.no/en/production-and-exports/exports-of-oil-and-gas/; and Chevron, “2018 Supplement to the Annual Report,” https://www.chevron.com/investors

58. Ariel Cohen, “Saudi Aramco IPO Hits $2 Trillion Mark amid Guarded Forecast,” Forbes, December 18, 2019, https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2019/12/18/saudi-aramco-ipo-hits-2-trillion-mark-but-forecast-still-guarded/#7ea04d6b42e6. Note that Aramco was traded on the Riyadh stock exchange. In 2020, Apple passed Aramco, with a market valuation of $1.84 trillion compared to Aramco’s 1.76 trillion. Seehttps://www.theverge.com/2020/7/31/21350154/apple-worlds-most-valuable-company-saudi-aramco

59. “Saudi Aramco: The Oil Colossus,” Reuters, November 3, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-ipo-factbox/saudi-aramco-the-oil-colossus-idUSKBN1XD03T

60. Michael Ives, “‘Real Impact’ – Across the Kingdom and around the Globe – Aramco’s First Branding Campaign,” Aramco ExPats, October 30, 2019, https://www.aramcoexpats.com/articles/real-impact-across-the-kingdom-and-around-the-globe-aramcos-first-branding-campaign/ Also see Matthew Taylor, “Saudi Aramco Removes ‘Sustainable’ Oil Adverts after Complaints,” The Guardian, April 29, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/29/saudi-aramco-removes-sustainable-oil-adverts-after-complaints

61. Masnadi et al., “Global Carbon Intensity of Crude Oil Production.”

62. The speed at which Aramco can act relates to its direct ties to the monarchy with absolute control. The ease at which it can control oil volumes relates to the fact that Aramco has fewer huge oil fields that require relatively fewer inputs to produce compared to other global assets.

63. Ariel Cohen, “Too Little Too Late? Russia and Saudi Arabia Reach Truce in Oil Price War,” Forbes, April 10, 2020, https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2020/04/10/too-little-too-late-russia-and-saudi-arabia-reach-truce-in-oil-price-war/#5bc5c0c56ff0

64. “Was BP’s ‘Beyond Petroleum’ Campaign Greenwashing?,” Climate one, November 14, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91fnsnIOYJg

65. John Kenney, “Beyond Propaganda,” New York Times, August 14, 2006, https://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/14/opinion/14kenney.html

66. Dietz, “Carbon Performance of European Integrated Oil and Gas Companies.”

67. Oil & Gas Journal, OGJ150, September 3, 2018.

68. Darius Snieckus, “Investment giant BlackRock backs calls for oil supermajor BP to 'accelerate' climate plans,” Recharge, May 31, 2021, https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/investment-giant-blackrock-backs-calls-for-oil-supermajor-bp-to-accelerate-climate-plans/2-1-1018172

69. For more information on a voluntary methane standard that BP and others are piloting, see Methane Intelligent Quotiet, https://miq.org/

70. There is no online copy of a public brochure produced by Chevron titled “Building Effective Climate Policy Together,” which was personally handed to me in February 2020.

71. Government of Western Australia, Department of Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety, “Gorgon Carbon Dioxide Injections Project,” https://www.dmp.wa.gov.au/Petroleum/Gorgon-CO2-injection-project-1600.aspx

72. See OCI+ model input data for Australia Gorgon and Pennsylvania Marcellus, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#methodology;

73. Emissions estimated using the OPGEE3.0a Beta model; see https://github.com/arbrandt/OPGEE. For more information on this particular case study, see Benz, “Leading Emission Reduction Opportunities and Renewable Technologies for Oil and Gas Production.”

74. The project plans to inject between 3.4 and 4 million tonnes of reservoir CO2 each year. See Chevron, “Gorgon Project: An Australian Icon,” https://australia.chevron.com/our-businesses/gorgon-project; and Chevron, “Gorgon Carbon Dioxide Injection Project,” 2019, https://australia.chevron.com/-/media/australia/publications/documents/gorgon-co2-injection-project.pdf

75. Between project start-up in March 2016 and CCS commencement in August 2019, Gorgon emitted an estimated total of 31 million metric tonnes of GHGs. In 2017 and 2018, the Australian government reported that Gorgon’s GHG emissions totaled 18 million tonnes. An additional estimated 13 million tonnes were emitted in 2016 and 2019. See Australian Government Clean Energy Regulator, “Safeguard Facility Reported Emissions,” National Greenhouse Gas and Energy Reporting, March 26, 2020; for 2017–2018 records, see http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/NGER/National%20greenhouse%20and%20energy%20reporting%20data/safeguard-facility-reported-emissions/safeguard-facility-emissions-2017-18 (see records 61–91); and for 2018–2019 records, seehttp://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/NGER/National%20greenhouse%20and%20energy%20reporting%20data/safeguard-facility-reported-emissions/safeguard-facility-emissions-2018-19?Paged=TRUE&p_Title=Gibson%20Island&p_ID=63&View=%7b2E72BD28%2d8DE5%2d4AA9%2d9795%2dD9A6B430FBBD%7d&PageFirstRow=61 (see records 61–91).

76. Lisa Cox, “Western Australia LNG Plant Faces Calls to Shut Down Until Faulty Carbon Capture System is Fixed,” The Guardian, January 14, 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/15/western-australia-lng-plant-faces-calls-to-shut-down-until-faulty-carbon-capture-system-is-fixed

77. Chevron, “Gorgon Carbon Dioxide Injection Project,” 2019, https://australia.chevron.com/-/media/australia/publications/documents/gorgon-co2-injection-project.pdf

78. IHS Markit, “Leadership Dialogue with Mike Wirth, Chairman & CEO, Chevron,” CERAWeek, May 14, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=jQVNRPdCtvs&fbclid=IwAR1ow2hU4g_uC8h5FbtGEfJO-4nkndbK9Mh1SSUlHKw6JpPGVJPINdI7OqM&app=desktop

79. Steve Coll, Private Empire: ExxonMobil and American Power (New York: Penguin Press, 2012).

80. Mark Hulbert, “Exxon’s Getting Booted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average May Be a Blessing in Disguise for Its Investors,” Market Watch, August 30, 2020, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/exxon-getting-booted-from-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-may-be-a-blessing-in-disguise-for-its-investors-2020-08-25

81. Matt Phillips, “Exxon’s Board Defeat Signals the Rise of Social-Good Activists,” New York Times, June 9, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/09/business/exxon-mobil-engine-no1-activist.html

82. Kevin Crowley and Bryan Gruley, “The Humbling of Exxon,” Bloomberg Business Week, May 4, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-exxonmobil-coronavirus-oil-demand/

83. Erik Larson, “ExxonMobil Beats New York’s Climate-Change Accounting Case,” Bloomberg, December 10, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-10/exxon-prevails-over-n-y-in-climate-change-accounting-case?sref=kDVWiOVx

84. In 2020, China opened its doors for the first time to non-state-owned enterprises (domestic and foreign) to explore and produce oil and gas. See Oceana Zhou and Daisy Xu, “China’s 2019 Oil Product Exports Jump 20% on Year,” S&P Global, January 24, 2020, https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/012420-china-data-2019-oil-product-exports-jumps-20-on-year-99-of-export-quotas-utilized

85. Knoema, “Total Petroleum Consumption,” https://knoema.com/atlas/topics/Energy/Oil/Petroleum-consumption

86. International Energy Agency, “Oil Information 2019,” August 2019, https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-2019

87. Zhou and Xu, “China’s 2019 Oil Product Exports Jump 20% on Year,”

88. China is adding significant coking refinery capacity and is setting up to be the world’s largest exporter of fuel-grade petcoke. See “China to Dominate Asian Refinery Coking Units’ Capacity Growth by 2024,” Energy Northern Perspective, August 10, 2020, https://energynorthern.com/2020/08/10/china-to-dominate-asian-refinery-coking-units-capacity-growth-by-2024/

89. For background on Southwestern, see SWN, https://www.swn.com/about/

90. See Table 3.2.

91. Oxy, “Enhanced Oil Recovery,” https://www.oxy.com/OurBusinesses/OilandGas/Technology/Enhanced-Oil-Recovery/Pages/default.aspx

92. OCI+ Gas Preview Beta Web Tool Under Development, https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#analysis?xSelect=years&ySelect=ghgTotal&oiltypeSelect=CO2%20EOR%20Oil

93. Notable exceptions to date include Rockefeller Brothers Endowment; Norges Bank Investment Management (Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund); Zurich Insurance; Government of Ireland; New York City Public Pension; and HSBC, which has divested from coal, oil sands, and/or arctic drilling, but not petroleum more broadly.

94. Doug Dannemiller and Sean Collins, “2020 Investment Management Outlook,” Deloitte, December 3, 2019, https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/financial-services/financial-services-industry-outlooks/investment-management-industry-outlook.html

95. BlackRock and Vanguard are the biggest shareholders in ExxonMobil (owning 13% of the company’s stock). It was reported that State Street (another major financial firm) also joined ranks. See Steven Mufson, “Financial Firms Lead Shareholder Rebellion against ExxonMobil Climate Change Policies,” Washington Post, May 31, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/05/31/exxonmobil-is-trying-to-fend-off-a-shareholder-rebellion-over-climate-change/

96. Eric Rosenbaum, “Activists Thought BlackRock, Vanguard Found Religion on Climate Change. Not Anymore,” CNBC, October 13, 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/13/blackrock-vanguard-found-religion-on-climate-doubts-are-growing.html

97. Transition Pathway Initiative, 2019; see http://www.climateaction100.org/

98. Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, “About the Task Force,” https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/about/#

99. Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, “Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures Overview,” March 2020, https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TCFD_Booklet_FNL_Digital_March-2020.pdf

100. Climate Action 100+, “Global Investors Driving Business Transition,” http://www.climateaction100.org/

101. Climate Action 100+, “2019 Progress Report,” September 2019, http://www.climateaction100.org/

102. Damian Carrington, “Fossil Fuel Divestment Funds Rise to $6tn,” The Guardian, September 10, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/10/fossil-fuel-divestment-funds-rise-to-6tn; Richard Mattison, “Accounting for Climate: The Next Frontier in ESG,” S&P Global, October 11, 2019, https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/featured/accounting-for-climate-the-next-frontier-in-esg

103. Jillian Ambrose and Jon Henley, “European Investment Bank to Phase Out Fossil Fuel Financing,” The Guardian, November 15, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/15/european-investment-bank-to-phase-out-fossil-fuels-financing

104. Investor oversight on best practices is very helpful. See RMI Center for Climate Aligned Finance, https://climatealignment.org/

105. Jeremy Grantham, “Ten Quick Topics to Ruin Your Summer,” GMO Quarterly Newsletter, 2Q2015, https://advisoranalyst.com/2015/08/05/jeremy-grantham-10-quick-topics-to-ruin-your-summer.html/

106. GMO website, https://www.gmo.com/americas/

107. For a 2019 video of Jeremy Grantham discussing climate change see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVVbCyrBQVg. For information on the United Nations Principle for Responsible Investment (PRI) initiative see https://www.unpri.org/pri

108. Grantham, “Ten Quick Topics to Ruin Your Summer.”

109. Industry advisers include Halliburton and Schlumberger, for example, which also provide field, installation, and equipment services. Other advisers specialize in oil and gas, such as Gaffney Cline (part of Baker Hughes), Wood Mackenzie, IHS CERA, and Rystad. And other consultants, such as McKinsey, Boston Consulting Group, and Bain, also work closely with the oil industry. See individual websites for more information; http://gaffney-cline-focus.com/files/Brochures/GCA_Carbon_Management_Brochure_July_2019.pdf;  https://www.woodmac.com/news/feature/can-the-energy-industry-rise-to-the-challenge-of-climate-change/; https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/pdf/1219/Energy-and-Climate-scenarios.pdf;  https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/top-5-energy-policy-predictions-for-2020/; https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/dotcom/client_service/Sustainability/cost%20curve%20PDFs/Climate_Change_Business_final_report.ashx; https://www.bcg.com/capabilities/social-impact/climate/center-for-climate-action.aspx; https://www.bain.com/consulting-services/sustainability-corporate-responsibility/

110. For their part, Google announced plans to close down its oil and gas unit for climate reasons in 2020. See Brian Merchant, “Google Says It Will Not Build Custom A.I. for Oil and Gas Extraction,” Medium, May 19, 2020, https://onezero.medium.com/google-says-it-will-not-build-custom-a-i-for-oil-and-gas-extraction-72d1f71f42c8

111. Bain & Company, “Oil & Gas,” https://www.bain.com/industry-expertise/oil-gas/

112. Matthew Farmer, “What Does the Future Hold for the Oil and Gas Workforce?,” Offshore Technology, May 1, 2020, https://www.offshore-technology.com/features/workforce-offshore-oil-gas-shale-employment-investment/

113. David Sheppard and Neil Hume, “Vitol’s Account Show Potential Value of up to $20bn,” Financial Times, October 5, 2017, https://www.ft.com/content/283a9606-a77a-11e7-93c5-648314d2c72c#targetText=Based%20on%20listed%20commodity%20traders,the%20figure%20was%20%241.4bn

114. For more information about these companies see https://gunvorgroup.com/news/gunvor-group-2017-results/;  https://www.glencore.com/dam/jcr:62bed41c-1627-4bf5-bc43-cf5518ba1193/glen-2017-annual-report.pdf; https://www.glencore.com/sustainability/climate-change;  https://www.trafigura.com/financials/2018-the-year-in-review/;  https://www.trafigura.com/responsibility/responsible-operation/environment-and-climate-change/; https://www.forbes.com/pictures/5980cf5b4bbe6f3eb80126fa/2-koch-industries/#5664c0c31907; http://www.mercuria.com; https://www.mercuria.com/about-ushttps://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/06/06/what-charles-koch-really-thinks-about-climate-change/

115. Julia Payne and Dmitry Zhdannikov, “Probes and Squeezed Profits Change the Oil Trading Game,” Reuters, June 20, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-traders/probes-and-squeezed-profits-change-the-oil-trading-game-idUSKCN1TL1IE

116. Lloyds Register, “Assurance Statement Related to the Royal Dutch Shell plc Greenhouse Gas Assertion for the Operational Control Greenhouse Gas Inventory for Calendar Year Ending December 31, 2019,” February 25, 2020, https://www.shell.com/sustainability/sustainability-reporting-and-performance-data/performance-data/greenhouse-gas-emissions/_jcr_content/par/tabbedcontent/tab_210321073/textimage.stream/1586188454581/4b0bb77ec597689dec2f2b1ad3677bf34b1aea78/sov-direct-and-energy-indirect-ghg-assurance-statement.pdf. The California Air Resource Board maintains a list of verification bodies; see https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/verification

117. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, “QA/QC and Verification Reporting Requirements and Their Application in Review of National Greenhouse Gas Inventories,” March 13, 2019, https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/QAQC%20and%20verification_refresher%20seminar%202019_0.pdf

118. For example, see Ernst & Young report for Chevron Corporation, December 13, 2016: https://www.chevron.com/-/media/chevron/sustainability/documents/GHG-inventory-2016.pdf

119. California Air Resources Board, “Mandatory GHG Reporting – Verification,” https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/verification

120. California Air Resources Board, “Regulation for the Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” https://ww3.arb.ca.gov/cc/reporting/ghg-rep/regulation/mrr-2018-unofficial-2019-4-3.pdf?_ga=2.155010173.490630161.1578251791-642710237.1576431103

121. California Air Resources Board, “Annual Summary of GHG Mandatory Reporting: Calendar Year 2018,” November 4, 2019, https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/mrr-data. See link to 2019 GHG Facility and Entity Emissions and sort for oil and gas entities.

122. Note that, in addition to the industry associations discussed in this section, a host of smaller industry groups also exist that have taken steps to acknowledge climate risks. But, like the API, they generally offer too little (and often outdated materials) in terms of actionable solutions. For example, see International Association of Oil and Gas Producers, “Climate Change: IOGP Position Paper,” https://www.iogp.org/blog/position-statements/climate-change-iogp-position-paper/. For more on energy coalitions, se: Christian Downie, “Ad Hoc Coalitions in the U.S. Energy Sector: Case Studies in the Gas, Oil, and Coal Industries,” Business and Politics 20, no. 4 (2018), https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/business-and-politics/article/ad-hoc-coalitions-in-the-us-energy-sector-case-studies-in-the-gas-oil-and-coal-industries/57FE3703B0BB443B6F04B7F4629F23DC

123. American Petroleum Institute, “Members,” https://www.api.org/membership/members

124. Sharon Kelly, “‘Time Is Running Out,’ American Petroleum Institute Chief Said in 1965 Speech on Climate Change,” Desmog, November 20, 2018, https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/11/20/american-petroleum-institute-1965-speech-climate-change-oil-gas

125. American Petroleum Institute, “Climate Change,” https://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas/environment/climate-change

126. Note that a range of geoengineering techniques (large-scale technological interventions to counteract climate change) are under various stages of development. Not only does their safe application need to be carefully vetted, but also none is a substitute for continued successful climate mitigation efforts. In other words, geoengineering alone cannot solve our climate problems and the industry should not attempt to cover its climate footprints using engineering solutions. For background on climate engineering/geoengineering, see https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Understanding_Climate_Engineering_Web.pdf; https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Gordon_Advancing_Public_Disclosure_On_Climate_Engineering_June_2018.pdf

127. Oil and Gas Climate Initiative, “Climate Investments,” https://oilandgasclimateinitiative.com/climate-investments/

128. Oil and Gas Climate Initiative, “At Work: Committed to Climate Action,” September 2018, http://vklb72qn0p747zkmy18w0m8g.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/OGCI_Report_2018.pdf

129. Climate Action 100+, “2019 Progress Report,” September 2019, http://www.climateaction100.org/

130. ALEC is a conservative political group. See https://www.alec.org

131. American Fuels and Petrochemicals Manufacturers, “Member Directory,” https://www.afpm.org/membership-directory

132. Deborah Gordon and Stephen D. Ziman, “Petroleum Companies Need a Credible Climate Plan,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 2019, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Gordon_Petro_Companies_Need_Climate_Plan_Nov2018.pdf

133. Sarah Kent, “Shell to Link Carbon Emission Targets to Executive Pay,” Wall Street Journal, December 3, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/shell-to-link-carbon-emissions-targets-to-executives-pay-1543843441

134. For more information on science-based targets that help chart the pathway to net-zero emissions, see World Resources Institute, “What Is a Science-Based Target?,” https://sciencebasedtargets.org/; Carbon Disclosure Project, World Resources Institute, United Nations Global Compact, World Wildlife Fund, “Science Based Targets,” https://sciencebasedtargets.org/

135. Nicole Winfield and Frank Jordans, “Major Oil Companies Commit to Climate Pricing at Vatican,” AP News, June 14, 2019, https://apnews.com/3460d18f3d414f65b9a70575a3080832#

136. “In-Situ Molecular Manipulation,” Society of Petroleum Engineers, https://www.spe.org/en/industry/in-situ-molecular-manipulation/; https://www.spe.org/industry/globalchallenges.php

137. Sami Alnuaim, “Circular Economy: A Sustainability Innovation and Solution for Oil, Gas, and Petrochemical Industries,” Journal of Petroleum Technology, May 1, 2019, https://pubs.spe.org/en/jpt/jpt-article-detail/?art=5340#

138. Sabic, “Circular Economy,” https://www.sabic.com/en/reports/sustainability-2019/innovation/circular-economy

139. Business Roundtable, “Business Roundtable Redefines the Purpose of a Corporation to Promote ‘an Economy That Serves All Americans,’ ” August 19, 2019, https://opportunity.businessroundtable.org/ourcommitment/

140. The following nine oil and gas industry actors signed the Business Roundtable statement: BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, Marathon Oil, Marathon Petroleum, Noble Energy, Phillips 66, and TC Energy. Two other industry-related petrochemical firms, Dow and LyondellBasell, also signed on even though they do not themselves produce, refine, or transport oil and gas. As such, only 6 percent (11 out of 184) signatories are from the oil and gas sector.

141. Milton Friedman, “The Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits,” New York Times Magazine, September 13, 1970, https://www.nytimes.com/1970/09/13/archives/a-friedman-doctrine-the-social-responsibility-of-business-is-to.xhtml

142. Leonardo Maugeri, The Age of Oil (Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers, 2006).

143. The Economist, “Standard Ogre,” December 23, 1999, https://www.economist.com/business/1999/12/23/standard-ogre

144. “The Climate Denial Machine: How the Fossil Fuel Industry Blocks Climate Action,” Climate Reality Project, September 5, 2019, https://www.climaterealityproject.org/blog/climate-denial-machine-how-fossil-fuel-industry-blocks-climate-action;Shannon Hall, “Exxon Knew about Climate Change Almost 40 Years Ago,” Scientific American, October 26, 2015, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/exxon-knew-about-climate-change-almost-40-years-ago/; Also see https://exxonknew.org/

145. Noah Kaufman, Twitter posting, April 7, 2020, https://twitter.com/noahqk/status/1247841052154908673

146. Adele Peters, “Big Oil Is Cheap: Should the Government Take It Over?,” Fast Company, March 27, 2020, https://www.fastcompany.com/90482315/big-oil-is-cheap-should-the-government-take-it-over

CHAPTER 6

1. United Nations Climate Change, “Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs),” https://unfccc.int/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, “NDC Registry (Interim),” https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx

2. Note that all references to NDC percentages in this chapter are cited from the following article: Lewis C. King and Jeroen C. J. M. van den Bergh, “Normalisation of Paris Agreement NDCs to Enhance Transparency and Ambition,” Research Letters, July 26, 2019, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1146. See Appendix D for assessment of whether each nation’s GHGs are projected to increase or decrease between 2015 and 2030 under their submitted NDC.

3. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change posts historic 2015 NDCs and 2020 updates on the NDC Registry; see https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx. To track which nations have updated their 2020 NDC submissions, see Climate Action Tracker, https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker/

4. United Nations, “The Heat Is On: NDC Global Outlook Report 2019,” September 2019, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/NDC_Outlook_Report_2019.pdf

5. World Meteorological Organization, “Carbon Dioxide Levels Continue at Record Levels, despite COVID-10 Lockdown,” November 23, 2020, https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/carbon-dioxide-levels-continue-record-levels-despite-covid-19-lockdown

6. Deborah Gordon, “Not All Oil Is Equal. As Economies Recover, Which Oils Should Stay in the Ground?,” Brink, June 21, 2020, https://www.brinknews.com/not-all-oil-is-equal-which-types-should-oil-companies-turn-back-on-as-the-economy-recovers-paris-agreement-climate-change-post-covid/

7. Global Carbon Project, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm

8. William Nordhaus, “Projections and Uncertainties about Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies,” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 10, no. 3 (2018): 333–60, https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/pol.20170046

9. Barry Rabe, ed., Greenhouse Governance: Addressing Climate Change in America (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2010).

10. United Nations, “What Is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?,” https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change

11. As of 2015, there were 197 parties (196 states and the European Union) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. See https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/status-of-ratification/status-of-ratification-of-the-convention. As the source of the largest share in past and present emissions, the onus is put on developed countries to lead the way. Industrialized countries fall into three categories: Annex I Parties that have committed to adopting national policies; Annex II Parties that are obliged to provide financial resources; and Annex B Parties that set emission reduction targets (2008–2012). These parties are joined by Non-Annex I parties that largely represent developing countries. See J. M. Allwood et al., Glossary. in: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. O. Edenhofer et al. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014); and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, “Parties & Observers,” https://unfccc.int/parties-observers. Numerous nongovernmental parties are admitted into the UNFCCC as observers. See United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, “Overview,” https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/parties-non-party-stakeholders/non-party-stakeholders/overview

12. One hundred and ninety-seven parties have signed the UNFCCC, including all UN member states (193); the UN General Assembly observes the State of Palestine, UN nonmember states of Niue and the Cook Islands, and the European Union. United Nations, “Treaty Collection, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,” status as of January 19, 2020, https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetailsIII.aspx?src=IND&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7&chapter=27&Temp=mtdsg3&clang=_en. Note that the UN considers Taiwan to be represented by China. See US Office of the Historian, “All Countries,” https://history.state.gov/countries/all

13. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, “NDC Registry (Interim),” https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx

14. See https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/Pages/Home.aspx

15. King and van den Bergh, “Normalisation of Paris Agreement NDCs to Enhance Transparency and Ambition.”

16. “List of Non Updating Countries,” CAT Climate Target Update Tracker, https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker/list-non-updating-countries/; also see UNFCCC, “Latest Submissions,” https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/LatestSubmissions.aspx

17. Ibid.; King and van den Bergh, “Normalisation of Paris Agreement NDCs to Enhance Transparency and Ambition.”

18. “2030 Climate Target Plan,” European Commission, April 2021, https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/eu-climate-action/2030_ctp_en

19. Noemie Liprince-Ringuet, “Which Countries Will Step Up Climate Commitments in 2020? What We Know Now,” World Resources Institute, November 21, 2019, https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/11/which-countries-will-step-climate-commitments-2020-what-we-know-now; European Union, “Committing to Climate-Neutrality by 2050: Commission Proposes European Climate Law and Consults on European Climate Pact,” March 4, 2020,https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_335

20. The United Kingdom withdrew its membership from the European Union in January 2020. For a current list of EU members, see https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en

21. International Energy Agency, “Climate Change,” https://www.iea.org/topics/climate-change

22. International Energy Agency, “The Oil and Gas Industry in Energy Transitions: Insights from IEA Analysis,” January 2020, https://www.iea.org/reports/the-oil-and-gas-industry-in-energy-transitions

23. Equatorial Guinea and Republic of Congo have much smaller baseline emissions than the other OPEC nations.

24. King and van den Bergh, “Normalisation of Paris Agreement NDCs to Enhance Transparency and Ambition.”

25. Ibid. Note that Chile has a relatively small 2015 GHG baseline of 3.6 gigatonnes of CO2e.

26. The nonfounding member nations in OPEC (and the year they joined) include Libya (1962), the United Arab Emirates (1967), Algeria (1969), Nigeria (1971), Ecuador (joined 1973, suspended 1992, rejoined 2007), Gabon (joined 1975, terminated 1995, rejoined 2016), Angola (2007), Equatorial Guinea (2017), Congo (2018), Qatar (joined 1961, terminated 2019), and Indonesia (joined 1962, suspended 2009, reactivated then resuspended 2016). See Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, “OPEC Member Countries,” https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/25.htm; and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, “Our Mission,” https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/23.htm

27. The other OPEC-plus nations include Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, South Sudan, and Sudan. In 2020, together with the OPEC nations, they attempted but failed to freeze production to prop up falling oil prices. See Brian Wingfield et al., “New Decade, New OPEC Oil Curbs, Same Mixed Results,” Bloomberg, February 24, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/opec-production-targets/

28. “OPEC: Energy, Climate Change and Sustainable Development,” OPEC Bulletin, April 2019, https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/OB042019.pdf

29. “Member States of the APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation,” WorldData.info, https://www.worlddata.info/alliances/apec-asia-pacific-economic-cooperation.php

30. APEC also includes Hong Kong and Taiwan, which both joined in 1991 and are not considered as countries under UNFCCC. See “APEC Members,” https://www.apec.org/About-Us/About-APEC/Member-Economies

31. Arthur D. Little, “Dead End Approaches for High-Sulfur Fuels,” April 2018, https://www.adlittle.com/sites/default/files/viewpoints/adl_dead_end_approaches_for_high-sulfur_fuels.compressed.pdf

32. Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, “Global Factsheet,” August 2020, https://eiti.org/files/documents/eiti_factsheet_en_08.2020.pdf

33. Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, “EITI Launches 2019 EITI Standard,” June 18, 2020, https://eiti.org/news/eiti-launches-2019-eiti-standard#

34. It is unclear whether the omission of oil and gas supply-side emission reductions may also be an indication of chronic GHG undercounting in national inventories.

35. Cleo Verkuijl, Natalie Jones, and Michael Lazarus, “Untapped Ambition: Addressing Fossil Fuel Production through NDCs and LEDS,” Stockholm Environmental Institute (SEI), June 2019, https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/untapped-ambition-addressing-fossil-fuel-production-through-ndcs-and-leds.pdf (see Tables 2 and 3).

36. In its updated NDC submitted on April 21, 2021, the United States mentions “natural gas” one time: “To address methane, the United States will update standards and invest in plugging leaks from wells and mines and across the natural gas distribution infrastructure.” See https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/United%20States%20of%20America%20First/United%20States%20NDC%20April%2021%202021%20Final.pdf

37. Author’s calculations using data cited in Figures 6.2 and 6.3.

38. Methane is the main component of natural gas, making it difficult to increase gas use without increasing methane emissions, which accelerates global warming when gas leaks into the atmosphere.

39. As of September 2020, 170 nations have not updated their NDC targets. Many are not planning to do so. To track which countries have provided updates, see https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker/ and https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/Pages/LatestSubmissions.aspx

40. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2018, Table 3.8, November 2018.

41. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Investing in Climate, Investing in Growth,” May 23, 2017, https://www.oecd.org/env/investing-in-climate-investing-in-growth-9789264273528-en.htm

42. Author’s calculations using sources listed in Tables 6.1 to 6.5.

43. Rabe, ed., Greenhouse Governance.

44. Government of Canada, “Canada’s Action on Climate Change,” https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-action.html

45. Government of Canada, “Regulations Respecting the Reduction in the Release of Methane and Certain Volatile Organic Compounds (Upstream Oil and Gas Sector),” https://pollution-waste.canada.ca/environmental-protection-registry/regulations/view?Id=146

46. Rattan Mall, “Positioning Canada as Supplier of World’s Cleanest Gas,” Voice Online, August 29, 2019, https://www.voiceonline.com/positioning-canada-as-supplier-of-worlds-cleanest-natural-gas/

47. David Coglon, “How Nanotechnology Could Reduce Oil Sands Carbon Footprint,” Energy Examined, Canadian Oil and Natural Gas Producers, https://context.capp.ca/energy-matters/2018/dyk_university-team-and-nanotechnology

48. Norskolje&gass, “Norway’s Petroleum History,” October 19, 2017, https://www.norskoljeoggass.no/en/about-us/oljehistorien/

49. “Norway Supports Efforts to Eliminate Gas Flaring by 2030,” Government.no, April 17, 2015, https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/eliminate_flaring/id2407055/#

50. Richard Milne, “Oil and the Battle for Norway’s Soul,” Financial Times, July 27, 2017, https://www.ft.com/content/c2dad93c-7192-11e7-aca6-c6bd07df1a3c

51. In 2001, Statoil became listed on the Oslo and New York stock exchanges, partly privatizing the company. In 2018, Statoil rebranded itself as Equinor, https://www.equinor.com/

52. In 2018, nearly one-third of Equinor’s revenues came from its oil and gas operations in Europe, Africa, and North America. See Equinor, “Annual Report 2018,” https://www.equinor.com/en/investors.html#annual-reports

53. Moves are afoot to sell some $6 billion (USD) in oil and gas holdings in Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, although it may retain shares in integrated majors, Shell, Exxon-Mobil, BP, and Total. See Terje Solsvik, “Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund to Divest Oil Explorers, Keep Refiners,” Reuters, October 1, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-norway-swf-oil/norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-to-divest-oil-explorers-keep-refiners-idUSKBN1WG4R9

54. Harry Cockburn, “Norway Refuses to Drill for Billions of Barrels of Oil in Arctic, Leaving ‘Whole Industry Surprised and Disappointed,’ ” April 9, 2019, https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/norway-oil-drilling-arctic-ban-labor-party-unions-a8861171.html

55. Canberra Times, “Australia Becomes the Largest Liquefied Natural Gas Exporter in the World,” January 7, 2020, https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6568957/australia-now-the-worlds-largest-natural-gas-exporter/?cs=14231

56. Somini Sengupta, “Climate Change Policy Toppled Australia’s Leader. Here’s What it Means for Others,” New York Times, August 24, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/24/climate/australia-climate-change.html; King and van den Bergh, “Normalisation of Paris Agreement NDCs to Enhance Transparency and Ambition.”

57. Chris Barrie, “Climate Change Poses a ‘Direct Threat’ to Australia’s National Security. It Must Be a Political Priority,” The Conversation, October 7, 2019, http://theconversation.com/climate-change-poses-a-direct-threat-to-australias-national-security-it-must-be-a-political-priority-123264

58. Judith Lewis Mernit, “Gavin Newsom and Big Oil: It’s Complicated,” Salon, October 6, 2020, https://www.salon.com/2020/10/06/gavin-newsom-and-big-oil--its-complicated_partner/

59. California Air Resources Board, Zero-Emission Vehicle Program, https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/zero-emission-vehicle-program

60. California Air Resources Board, “Low Carbon Fuel Standard,” https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/low-carbon-fuel-standard

61. Brad Plumer and Jill Cowan, “A Scorched California Moves to Halt Sales of New Gas-Powered Cars by 2035,” New York Times, September 23, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/climate/california-ban-gas-cars.html

62. “California’s Oil Refineries,” California Energy Commission, https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/californias-petroleum-market/californias-oil-refineries

63. Cal Matters, “California’s ‘Hydrogen Highway’ Never Happened. Could 2020 Change That?,” https://calmatters.org/environment/2020/01/why-california-hydrogen-cars-2020/

64. The US oil and gas production and refining trifecta holds since 2014 and extends annually through 2019. For times series data on oil (petroleum and other liquids) production, see https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/annual-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production; for data on gas production, see https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/annual-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production; for benchmarking refined oil volumes refer to refined petroleum products production, https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/annual-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production

65. US Energy Information Administration, “Petroleum & Other Liquids,” https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm. Note that while volumes of US oil imports and exports vary from month to month, the relative reliance on oil imports remained relatively constant in 2019, dipping only slightly to 37 percent in end September 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic, while the share of oil exports rose to 33 percent in end September 2020, likely due to a reduction in oil volumes refined.

66. US Energy Information Administration, “Natural Gas Monthly,” https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/monthly/. Most of the excess gas that the United States produces but does not consume is exported, but consequential volumes are also disposed of (flared and vented). Note that the shares of gas the United States produced but did not consume as well as the share it exported remained relatively constant in 2020 compared to 2019.

67. For more on why a meaningful conversation is lacking on US climate policymaking, see Rabe, ed., Greenhouse Governance.

68. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, “Carbon Monitoring System,” https://carbon.nasa.gov/; “Biden Signs Bill to Restore Regulations on Climate-Warming Methane Emissions,” National Public Radio, June 30, 2021, https://www.npr.org/2021/04/28/991635101/congress-votes-to-restore-regulations-on-climate-warming-methane-emissions

69. Hiroko Tabuchi, “Oil and Gas May Be a Far Bigger Climate Threat Than We Knew,” New York Times, February 19, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/19/climate/methane-flaring-oil-emissions.html

70. “Your Texas Economy,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, January 31, 2020, https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/Documents/research/econdata/texaseconomy.pdf

71. New Mexico Executive Order 2019-003, “Addressing Climate Change and Energy Waste Prevention,” January 29, 2019, https://www.governor.state.nm.us/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/EO_2019-003.pdf

72. Judith Kohler, “Oil-Gas Law Is a Paradigm Shift, Co-Sponsor Tells Those Writing New Rules,” Denver Post, September 25, 2019, https://www.denverpost.com/2019/09/25/colorado-oil-gas-commission-181-climate-change/#; Dan Grossman, “Colorado’s Landmark Methane Rules Raise Bar for Federal Climate Action,” Environmental Defense Fund, March 18, 2021, https://blogs.edf.org/energyexchange/2021/03/18/colorados-landmark-methane-rules-raise-bar-for-federal-climate-action/

73. David Taylor et al., “Black to Green: A BIG Opportunity for North Dakota’s Oil and Gas Producers,” Science 242 (May 13, 2019), https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261919305665

74. Arturo Balderas Torres, Priscila Lazaro Vargas, and Jouni Paavola, “The Systemic and Governmental Agendas in Presidential Attention to Climate Change in Mexico 1994–2018,” Nature Communications 11 (January 23, 2020): 455, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-14048-7

75. Mauricio Savarese, “Brazil’s Role Questioned after UN Global Warming Meeting,” AP News, December 16, 2019, https://apnews.com/62ed107987486bf96537 b88a88edf6ef

76. See data sources in Figure 6.3.

77. Deloitte, “Brazilian Pre-Salt: Petrobras Is Betting Its Future on Pre-Salt Assets, Promising to Rise Its Production,” https://www2.deloitte.com/br/en/pages/energy-and-resources/upstream-guide/articles/pre-salt-brazil.html

78. S&P Platts, “Brazilian Biodiesel, Ethanol Output Advance on Year in October,” December 3, 2019, https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/agriculture/120319-brazilian-biodiesel-ethanol-output-advance-on-year-in-october

79. Falih Hassan and Elian Peltier, “Scorching Temperatures Bake Middle East Amid Eid al-Adha Celebrations,” New York Times, July 31, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/world/middleeast/Middle-East-heat-wave.html

80. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, “Earth Observatory,” https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/global-temperatures

81. Marc Lynch and Laurie Brand, “Refugees and Displacement in the Middle East,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 29, 2017, https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/03/29/refugees-and-displacement-in-middle-east-pub-68479

82. Lee Fang and Sharon Lerner, “Saudi Arabia Denies Its Key Role in Climate Change Even as It Prepares for the Worst,” The Intercept, September 18, 2019 https://theintercept.com/2019/09/18/saudi-arabia-aramco-oil-climate-change/

83. Climate Change Performance Index, “Saudi Arabia,” https://www.climate-change-performance-index.org/country/saudi-arabia; Note: the Climate Change Performance Index is an NGO collaboration by GermanWatch, https://www.germanwatch.org/en/about; New Climate Institute, https://newclimate.org/; and Climate Action Network, http://www.climatenetwork.org/

84. King and van den Bergh, “Normalisation of Paris Agreement NDCs to Enhance Transparency and Ambition.”

85. Chloe Farand, “UN Report on 1.5C Blocked from Climate Talks after Saudi Arabia Disputes Science,” Climate Home News, June 27, 2019, https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/27/un-report-1-5c-blocked-climate-talks-saudi-arabia-disputes-science/

86. Mohammad Masnadi et al., “Global Carbon Intensity of Crude Oil Production,” Science, August 31, 2018, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6405/851.summary; King and van den Bergh, “Normalisation of Paris Agreement NDCs to Enhance Transparency and Ambition.” Note that the same issues affect the United States, Russia, and other major oil and gas producers whose sheer production volumes translate into large GHG emissions even when each barrel produced has a lower GHG intensity.

87. Saudi Aramco, “Addressing the Climate Challenge,” https://www.saudiaramco.com/en/making-a-difference/planet/climateinitiative

88. Frank Kane, “Aramco CEO in Call for ‘Ultra Clean Energy,’” Arab News, September 10, 2019, https://www.arabnews.com/node/1552781/business-economy

89. King and van den Bergh, “Normalisation of Paris Agreement NDCs to Enhance Transparency and Ambition.”

90. Steven Mufson, “Facing Unbearable Heat, Qatar Has Begun to Air-Condition the Outdoors,” Washington Post, October 16, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/world/climate-environment/climate-change-qatar-air-conditioning-outdoors/

91. Tsvetana Paraskova, “Qatar Builds the Biggest Carbon Capture Plant in the Middle East,” Oilprice. com, October 8, 2019, https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Qatar-Builds-The-Biggest-Carbon-Capture-Plant-In-The-Middle-East.html

92. Sania Aziz Rahman, “Is UAE Leading the Way for Concentrated Solar Power in the Gulf?,” Eco-Business, May 10, 2019, https://www.eco-business.com/news/is-uae-leading-the-way-for-concentrated-solar-power-in-the-gulf/

93. Anmar Frangoul, “Oil Field in Oman Set to Get a Solar Plant to Aid Its Crude Production,” CNBC, November 14, 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/14/oilfield-in-oman-set-to-get-a-solar-plant-to-aid-its-crude-production.html

94. Nima Khorrami Assl, “Oman’s Economic Ambitions,” Sada Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 14, 2018, https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/77972

95. Nick Butler, “Kuwait’s Efforts on Green Energy Fails to Match Its Best Intentions,” Financial Times, September 9, 2019, https://www.ft.com/content/bdcee818-c35f-11e9-ae6e-a26d1d0455f4

96. Clifford Krauss, “Canada Oil-Sands Plan Collapses Over Politics and Economics,” New York Times, February 24, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/24/business/energy-environment/frontier-oil-sands-canada.html

97. Matthew Johnson et al., “Comparisons of Airborne Methane Measurements and Inventory Estimates of Methane Emissions in the Alberta Upstream Oil and Gas Sector,” Environment Science and Technology 51, no. 21 (October 17, 2017), https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.7b03525

98. Janet French, “Alberta, Ottawa Reach Preliminary Deal on Methane Emissions Regulation,” CBC, May 13, 2020, https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-ottawa-reach-preliminary-deal-on-methane-emissions-regulation-1.5568924

99. Benjamin Israel et al., “The Oilsands in a Carbon-Constrained Canada,” Pembina Institute, February 19, 2020, https://www.pembina.org/pub/oilsands-carbon-constrained-canada

100. See data sources in Figure 6.3.

101. In 2019, I met with representatives from the Japan Research Network, which is working with Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) and the Mitsubishi Research Institute to study GHG emission reduction measures in the oil and gas sector.

102. Verkuijl et al., “Untapped Ambition: Addressing Fossil Fuel Production through NDCs and LEDS.”

103. Peter Hansen, “Nigeria News Brief and Action Alert,” Climate Scorecard, December 20, 2020, https://www.climatescorecard.org/2020/12/nigeria-has-experienced-a-271-increase-in-greenhouse-gas-emissions-since-1990/

104. See data sources in Figure 6.3.

105. “Russia’s New Arctic Project Will Be Biggest in Global Oil - Rosneft,” Barents Observer, February 14, 2020, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/14/russias-new-arctic-project-will-be-biggest-in-global-oil-rosneft-a69294

106. Neven Valev, “Political Stability – Country Ratings,” theglobaleconomy.com, https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/wb_political_stability/

107. King and van den Bergh, “Normalisation of Paris Agreement NDCs to Enhance Transparency and Ambition.”

108. “Eyes on Nigeria: Technical Report,” American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2011, https://www.aaas.org/sites/default/files/AAAS_EyesOnNigeria_Technical_Report.pdf

109. Berkeley Earth, “List of States and Provinces,” http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/state-list/. Note that Canada’s Nunavut and Northwest Territories (which abut Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay oil fields) also have the dubious distinction of temperatures that have risen over 4.5 degrees Celsius.

110. “Russia’s New Arctic Project Will Be Biggest in Global Oil – Rosneft,” Barents Observer, February 14, 2020, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/14/russias-new-arctic-project-will-be-biggest-in-global-oil-rosneft-a69294

111. For more information on Vostok’s plans see Caepla, “Russia Planning Largest Oil Project in World History: $155B Investment & 100,000 Jobs,” February 28, 2020, https://www.caepla.org/russia_planning_largest_oil_project_in_world_history_155b_investment_100_000_jobs;Olga Yagova and Aaron Sheldrick, “Russia’s Rosneft Seeks Japanese Investors for Giant Vostok Oil Development,” Reuters, December 11, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-oil-japan/russias-rosneft-seeks-japanese-investors-for-giant-vostok-oil-development-idUSL4N28L1QF

112. See data sources in Figure 6.3.

113. King and van den Bergh, “Normalisation of Paris Agreement NDCs to Enhance Transparency and Ambition.”

114. Steven Lee Myers, “Xi Sets 40-Year Target in Ambitious Pledge on Carbon Neutrality,” New York Times, September 23, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/world/asia/china-climate-change.html

115. Joanna Slater, “Can India Chart a Low-Carbon Future? The World Might Depend on It,” Washington Post, June 12, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2020/06/12/india-emissions-climate/?arc404=true

116. Daniel Kaufmann and Rebecca Iwerks, “Close to Home: The Critical Importance of Subnational Governance in Oil, Gas, and Mining,” Brookings Institute, September 27, 2016, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2016/09/27/close-to-home-the-critical-importance-of-subnational-governance-in-oil-gas-and-mining/

117. C40 Dashboard, https://www.c40.org/other/gpc-dashboard

118. Somini Sengupta, “Earth Is Overheating. Millions Are Already Feeling the Pain,” New York Times, August 7, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/06/climate/climate-change-inequality-heat.html

119. United Nations, “Polar Vortex Responsible for Texas Deep Freeze, Warm Arctic Temperatures,” United Nations News, March 9, 2021, https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/03/1086752; Chris Stipes, “Harris County Took the Brunt of February Freeze,” University of Houston, April 8, 2021, https://uh.edu/news-events/stories/2021/april-2021/04082021-hobby-winter-hc.php

120. National Weather Service, “Houston Climate Data,” https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah. Note that reported air temperatures do not account for Houston’s high humidity that factors into the heat index, driving Houston’s heat well over 100 degrees Fahrenheit on a typical summer day. For calculation see https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/heatindex.shtml

121. John Nova Lomax, “The Evolution of the Energy Capital of the World,” Texas Monthly, February 14, 2017, https://www.texasmonthly.com/energy/evolution-energy-capital-world/

122. “Top 30 U.S. Ports,” Logistics Management, https://www.logisticsmgmt.com/article/top_30_u.s._ports_trade_tensions_determine_where_cargo_goes_next

123. Katie Watkins, “Report: Oil & Gas Industry Set to Release an Extra 220 Million Tons of Greenhouse Gases by 2025,” Houston Public Media, January 8, 2020, https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/energy-environment/2020/01/08/356799/report-oil-gas-industry-set-to-release-an-extra-220-million-tons-of-greenhouse-gases-by-2025/

124. In a 1981 article, Texas Monthly dubbed nearby Port Neches the “Cancer Belt.” See https://www.texasmonthly.com/articles/the-cancer-belt/

125. A Google search on October 8, 2020, for “chemical plants in Beaumont Tx” listed twenty-four facilities, and a Yellow Pages search on March 6, 2020, returned similar results; see https://www.yellowpages.com/beaumont-tx/chemical-plants

126. Environmental Integrity Project, “31 New or Expanded Petrochemical Plants Approved in Hurricane Zone along TX and LA Coast,” September 26, 2018, https://environmentalintegrity.org/news/31-new-or-expanded-petrochemical-plants/

127. Houston Climate Action Plan, Draft, July 29, 2019, http://greenhoustontx.gov/climateactionplan/2019-DRAFT-CAP.pdf

128. ConocoPhillips, “Climate Change Position,” http://www.conocophillips.com/sustainability/integrating-sustainability/sustainable-development-governance/policies-positions/climate-change-position/

129. Ben Steverman, “The Energy Elite Have Started Listening to Their Enemy No. 1 in Houston,” Bloomberg Green, March 3, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-03/texas-s-energy-elite-are-listening-to-climate-lawyer-blackburn?sref=dcitGkK3&utm_source=url_link

130. Stateside Staff, “A Three-Story Pile of Pet Coke Next to the Detroit River, Where Will It Go?,” Michigan Public Radio, May 22, 2013, https://www.michiganradio.org/post/three-story-pile-pet-coke-next-detroit-river-where-will-it-go

131. Chad Livengood, “Detroit Denies Marathon’s Request to Keep Pet Coke Piles Uncovered,” Crain’s Detroit Business, April 22, 2019, https://www.crainsdetroit.com/energy/detroit-denies-marathons-request-keep-pet-coke-piles-uncovered

132. Keith Matheny, “Marathon Wants to Keep Storing Pet Coke Uncovered near Detroit River,” Detroit Free Press, February 15, 2019, https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/wayne/2019/02/15/marathon-pet-coke-petroleum-detroit-river-fugitive-dust/2881924002/

133. Relinde Van Loo, “The Rise and Fall of the Dutch Groningen Gas Field,” E&C Consultants for the EU Blog, August 15, 2018, https://www.eecc.eu/blog/groningen-gas-field

134. Stanley Reed, “Earthquakes Are Jolting the Netherlands. Gas Drilling Is to Blame,” New York Times, October 24, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/24/business/energy-environment/netherlands-gas-earthquakes.html#

135. Benjamin Storrow, @bstorrow Tweet, Twitter, May 28, 2020, 8:21 AM, https://twitter.com/bstorrow/status/1265981622316302337

136. “US Government Role in Shale Gas Fracking History: A Response to Our Critics,” Breakthrough Institute, March 1, 2012, https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/us-government-role-in-shale-gas-fracking-history-a-response-to-our-critics

137. Researchers in government from Norway, Chile, Canada, New Zealand, Germany, India, and others are also involved. For examples of government entities involved see National Energy Technology Laboratory, https://netl.doe.gov/oil-gas/gas-hydrates; US Department of Energy, Office of Oil and Gas, https://www.energy.gov/fe/science-innovation/oil-gas-research; US Geological Survey,https://www.usgs.gov/centers/whcmsc/science/us-geological-survey-gas-hydrates-project?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects; and Hawaii Natural Energy Institute/US Naval Research  Laboratory,https://www.hnei.hawaii.edu/research/alternative-fuels/methane-hydrates/overview

138. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, “Algae to Crude Oil: Million-Year Natural Process Takes Minutes in the Lab,” December 17, 2013, https://www.pnnl.gov/news/release.aspx?id=1029

139. For examples see National Aeronautics and Space Administration Carbon Monitoring System, https://carbon.nasa.gov/objectives.html?; Japan GOSAT Project, http://www.gosat.nies.go.jp/en/; the Netherlands TROPOMI, http://www.tropomi.eu/

140. The local government of the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia is also involved. See David Weston, “German-Dutch Hydrogen Feasibility Study Launched,” January 30, 2020, https://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1672522/german-dutch-hydrogen-feasibility-study-launched

141. Sarah E. Baker et al., “Getting to Neutral: Options for Negative Carbon Emissions in California,” January, 2020, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, LLNL-TR-796100, https://www-gs.llnl.gov/content/assets/docs/energy/Getting_to_Neutral.pdf

142. Joe Biden, https://joebiden.com/racial-economic-equity/

143. “Global Research and Development Expenditures Fact Sheet,” Congressional Research Service, April 29, 2020, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44283.pdf. See Table 3 for R&D as a share of purchasing power parity (PPP).

144. James Pethokoukis, “US Federal Research Spending Is at a 60-Year Low. Should We Be Concerned?,” American Enterprise Institute, May 11, 2020, https://www.aei.org/economics/us-federal-research-spending-is-at-a-60-year-low-should-we-be-concerned/. See Exhibit 1.

145. US Department of Energy, “National Laboratories,” https://www.energy.gov/national-laboratories

146. Adrienne Blume, “IRPC ’19: Keynote Speakers Tackle Shifts in HPI Landscape,” Hydrocarbon Processing, September 25, 2019, https://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/conference-news/2019/09/irpc-19-keynote-speakers-tackle-shifts-in-hpi-landscape. In particular, see Madhav Acharya’s (ARPA-e) comments.

147. See President Joe Biden’s climate plan: https://joebiden.com/climate-plan/#

148. International Energy Agency, “World Energy Investment 2020,” May 2020,  https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2020/rd-and-technology-innovation

149. Francis Bator, “The Anatomy of Market Failure,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 72 (August 1958), https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/72/3/351/1859737?redirectedFrom=fulltext

CHAPTER 7

1. The Bill Lane Center for the American West, https://west.stanford.edu/events/why-are-california-s-oils-some-world-s-dirtiest-panel-oil-climate-index-team

2. Judith Lewis Mernit, “Gavin Newsom and Big Oil: It’s Complicated,” Salon, October 6, 2020, https://www.salon.com/2020/10/06/gavin-newsom-and-big-oil--its-complicated_partner/

3. California Legislative Information, “AB-3217: Greenhouse Gases: Crude Oil,” http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201920200 AB3217; Ann Alexander, “Know Your Oil Bill: Ignorance about CA Crude Is Not Bliss,” February 25, 2020, https://www.nrdc.org/experts/ann-alexander/know-your-oil-bill-ignorance-about-ca-crude-not-bliss

4. Note that the California legislation follows from similar federal bills: H.R. 6082 and H.R. 3286, introduced by Democratic Representative Jared Huffman (California). See Jared Huffman, “Rep. Huffman Introduces Energy Transparency Legislation,” July 19, 2017, https://huffman.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/rep-huffman-introduces-energy-transparency-legislation-know-your-oil-act-and-carbon-pollution-transparency-act; H.R. 6082, 114th Congress (2015–2016), https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/114/hr6082; H.R. 3285, 115th Congress (2017–2018), https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3286?s=1&r=82

5. Even those who currently work in (or are retired from) government and industry also qualify as part of civil society in their personal lives. For a discussion on civil society actors, see Paul Hawken, “The Movement with No Name,” Tricycle, Fall 2008, https://tricycle.org/magazine/movement-no-name/

6. Stephen Campbell, UMI Fund, personal communication in Zoom meeting, April 28, 2020; see https://www.umi-center.com/about

7. “America’s Energy Choices: Investing in a Strong Economy and a Clean Environment,” Alliance to Save Energy, American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, Natural Resources Defense Council, and the Union of Concerned Scientists, 1991.

8. International Energy Agency, “The Oil and Gas Industry in Energy Transitions,” 2020, https://webstore.iea.org/download/direct/2935

9. The first wave of environmentalism reportedly dates back to the early 1900s and the creation of national parks, while the second was set off by Earth Day in 1970. See Noel Perrin, “‘Think Globally, Act Locally,’” New York Times, January 24, 1993, https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1993/01/24/issue.html

10. David Schlosberg and Roman Coles, “The New Environmentalism of Everyday Life: Sustainability, Material Flows and Movements,” Contemporary Political Theory 15 (2016): 160–81, https://doi.org/10.1057/cpt.2015.34

11. See data sources in Table 7.1.

12. David Brancaccio and Ali Oshinskie, “Ralph Nader Wants You to Wear a Seat Belt,” NPR Marketplace, September 28, 2018, https://www.marketplace.org/2018/09/28/ralph-nader-wants-you-wear-your-seat-belt/

13. Patrick McGee, “How VW’s Cheating on Emissions Was Exposed,” Financial Times, January 11, 2017, https://www.ft.com/content/103dbe6a-d7a6-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e

14. For examples of other NGOs involved in utility sector work, see US Environmental Protection Agency, “Green Power Partnership,” https://www.epa.gov/greenpower/green-power-partnership-related-programs-organizations

15. Rocky Mountain Institute, “Reinventing Fire: Industry,” 2011, https://rmi.org/insight/reinventing-fire-industry/

16. The IEA is an “autonomous agency” composed of member countries and associated with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. But it is not a government entity. In assessing countries in chapter 6, IEA membership is sorted and discussed. It is covered in this chapter as a quasi-NGO in terms of the function the Energy Information Administration (EIA) serves informing civil society.

17. Frank Newport, “Americans Want Government to Do More on Environment,” March 29, 2018, https://news.gallup.com/poll/232007/americans-want-government-more-environment.aspx

18. For OCI+ outreach examples see Oil Climate Project website, https://www.oilclimateproject.com/presentations-and-seminars. And previous outreach efforts in the press and through events are archived at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Oil Initiative,” https://carnegieendowment.org/specialprojects/carnegieoilinitiative/all/1253?lang=en&pageOn=1

19. Coursehero; see https://www.coursehero.com/file/14653096/unconventional-oil/. Also see Wikipedia, “Unconventional Oil,” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unconventional_oil

20. For event recording and presentation materials, see “Oil and Climate Change in the Twenty-First Century,” Panel presentation at COP21, Paris, France, December 11, 2015, https://carnegieendowment.org/2015/12/11/oil-and-climate-change-in-twenty-first-century-event-5054

21. Reddit AMAs with hundreds of Q&A interactions were conducted in December 2015 and December 2016; see https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/3wsblg/we_are_four_climate_and_energy_experts_here_to/; https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/5glqrw/science_ama_series_were_a_team_of_researchers/

22. Oil Climate Project, https://www.oilclimateproject.com/

23. The IPCC was created in 1988 by the United Nations and World Meteorological Organization. See https://www.ipcc.ch/

24. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Global Warming of 1.5 °C,” October 6, 2018, https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/. There are hundreds of stories; for examples see World Resources Institute, “8 Things You Need to Know about the IPCC 1.5°C Report,” October 7, 2018, https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/8-things-you-need-know-about-ipcc-15-c-report; Union of Concerned Scientists, “The IPCC Gets Real about the 1.5°C Target,” October 8, 2018, https://blog.ucsusa.org/peter-frumhoff/the-ipcc-gets-real-about-the-1-5c-target; and Greenpeace, “IPCC Report Points to Stark Choices Ahead, but Reason for Hope and Action,” October 8, 2018, https://www.greenpeace.org/international/press-release/18839/ipcc-report-points-to-stark-choices-ahead-but-reason-for-hope-and-action-greenpeace/

25. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Characteristics of Four Illustrative Model Pathways,” October 2018, https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/graphics/#cid_6333

26. National Academy of Sciences, “Automotive Fuel Economy: How Far Can We Go?,” 1992, http://www.nap.edu/catalog/1806/automotive-fuel-economy-how-far-can-we-go

27. NAS, “Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles,” 1998, https://www.nap.edu/catalog/6127/review-of-the-research-program-of-the-partnership-for-a-new-generation-of-vehicles

28. National Academy of Sciences, “Gulf Research Program Awards $7.25 Million to Eight Projects Working to Advance Safety Culture in the Offshore Oil and Gas Industry,” January 16, 2020, https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2020/01/gulf-research-program-awards-7-25-million-to-eight-projects-working-to-advance-safety-culture-in-the-offshore-oil-and-gas-industry

29. For congressional testimony transcripts see https://carnegieendowment.org/files/2014-04-02-Debbie_Gordon_testimony.pdf and https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Deborah_Gordon_subcommittee_testimony_-_12_11_12_SS_NP_CG.pdf

30. “Federal Crowdsourcing Webinar Series, Episode 1: Citizen Science,” April 2019, https://www.citizenscience.gov/about/#. Also see “Orphan Well Location Survey,” https://www.citizenscience.gov/catalog/499/# and https://www.citizenscience.gov/catalog/496/#

31. US House of Representatives, “Crowdsourcing and Citizen Science,” 15 USC 3724, 2017; See laws in effect on June 3, 2020, https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-prelim-title15-section3724)&num=0&edition=prelim

32. Sam Sanders, “Some Google Street View Cars Now Track Pollution Levels,” NPR, July 29, 2015, https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2015/07/29/427462846/some-google-street-view-cars-now-track-pollution-levels#. For more information about Aclima, https://aclima.io/#mission

33. Motor Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Act of 1990, 101st Congress, 1989–1990, https://www.congress.gov/bill/101st-congress/senate-bill/1224/amendments

34. “Fuel-Efficiency Effort Defeated in Senate,” CQ Almanac, 1990, https://library.cqpress.com/cqalmanac/document.php?id=cqal90-1112545

35. Jon Miltimore, “What Is Lobbying (and Do We Really Need Lobbyists)?,” Foundation for Economic Education, September 26, 2019, https://fee.org/articles/what-is-lobbying-and-do-we-really-need-lobbyists/

36. For example see Reveal expose interviewing two former ExxonMobil lobbyists, June 30, 2021, https://twitter.com/UE/status/1410300881761882112

37. To block the Trump administrations attempted CAFE standard rollback in 2020, ten environmental NGOs are suing the Trump administration; see https://www.nrdc.org/media/2020/200527. Also see Safe Climate Campaign, http://safeclimatecampaign.org/; Union of Concerned Scientists, https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/brief-history-us-fuel-efficiency

38. See sources in Figure 7.1.

39. Deborah Gordon and Madhav Acharya, “Oil Shake-Up: Refining Transitions in a Low-Carbon Economy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 2018, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Gordon_DrivingChange_Article_April2018_final.pdf

40. Examples of analysis produced with former oil industry experts include Gordon and Acharya, “Oil Shake-Up,” and “Petroleum Companies Need a Credible Climate Plan,” November 2018. See Oil Climate Project for details, https://www.oilclimateproject.com/

41. For CCL founder Marshall Saunders’s nerve-wracking story of his first-ever advocacy meeting in Congress, see https://citizensclimatelobby.org/about-ccl/citizens-climate-lobbys-founder/; https://citizensclimatelobby.org/about-ccl/advisory-board/

42. For example, a carbon price tailored to the oil and gas sector would distinguish between heterogeneous resources using the OCI+. See Deborah Gordon and Jessica T. Mathews, “Smart Tax: Pricing Oil for a Safe Climate,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 15, 2016, https://carnegieendowment.org/2016/06/15/smart-tax-pricing-oil-for-safe-climate-pub-63765

43. Reference to lyrics by Steely Dan, “Barrytown,” on the album Pretzel Logic, February 20, 1974, https://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/steelydan/barrytown.html

44. “54 Sources for Climate Change News,” GW Public Health Online, January 6, 2020, https://publichealthonline.gwu.edu/blog/sources-for-climate-news/

45. Carbon Mapper, https://carbonmapper.org/

46. “Methane Detectors Challenge | Environmental Defense Fund,” https://www.edf.org/methane-detectors-challenge.

47. See, for example, Al Gore, “We Can Solve the Climate Crisis by Tracing Pollution Back to Its Sources,” Medium, July 15, 2020, https://medium.com/@algore/we-can-solve-the-climate-crisis-by-tracing-pollution-back-to-its-sources-4f535f91a8dd; and Environmental Defense Fund, “This Is the Next Wave of Environmentalism,” https://www.edf.org/approach/fourth-wave

48. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, “Handbook on Measurement, Reporting and Verification,” 2014, https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/non-annex_i_mrv_handbook.pdf

49. The new nonprofit, MiQ, (a collaboration between RMI and SystemIQ) has developed a voluntary certification standard for low-methane natural gas. See https://miq.org/

50. Lewis King and Jeroen C. J. M. van den Bergh, “Normalisation of Paris Agreement NDCs to Enhance Transparency and Ambition,” Environmental Research Letters 14 (2019), https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1146/pdf

51. The Greenhouse Gas Protocol: A Corporate Accounting and Reporting Standard, rev. ed., World Business Council for Sustainable Development and World Resources Institute, March 2004, https://ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/standards/ghg-protocol-revised.pdf

52. Simon Dietz et al., “Carbon Performance Assessment of Oil & Gas Producers: Note on Methodology,” Transition Pathway Initiative, October 2020, https://www.transitionpathwayinitiative.org/publications/62.pdf?type=Publication

53. Simon Dietz, et al., “TPI State of Transition Report 2020,” Transition Pathway Initiative, May 2020, https://www.transitionpathwayinitiative.org/publications/50.pdf?type=Publication

54. The CCAC is composed of sixty-nine government partners, eighteen intergovernmental organizations, and fifty-eight NGOs. For more information see Climate and Clean Air Coalition, https://ccacoalition.org/en

55. Climate and Clean Air Coalition, “Global Alliance to Significantly Reduce Methane Emissions in the Oil and Gas Sector by 2030,” 2019, https://ccacoalition.org/en/activity/global-alliance-significantly-reduce-methane-emissions-oil-and-gas-sector-2030

56. World Bank, “Saudi Aramco Joins World Bank’s Initiative: ‘Zero Routine Flaring by 2030,’ ” November 6, 2019, https://www.saudiaramco.com/en/news-media/news/2019/zero-routine-flaring-by-2030-initiative

57. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS),” https://ncc.nesdis.noaa.gov/VIIRS/. Christopher Elvidge is the principal investigator; see https://payneinstitute.mines.edu/eog/. Regarding VIIRS accuracy see Adam Brandt, “Accuracy of Satellite-Derived Estimates of Flaring Volume for Offshore Oil and Gas Operations in Nine Countries,” Environmental Research Communications, May 11, 2020, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/ab8e17/pdf

58. Natural Resources Defense Council, “Court Battles,” https://www.nrdc.org/court-battles

59. Our Children’s Trust (an NGO) has filed numerous lawsuits in US state courts. See https://www.ourchildrenstrust.org/pending-state-actions/ and http://blogs2.law.columbia.edu/climate-change-litigation/wp-content/uploads/sites/16/case-documents/2015/20150812_docket-615-cv-1517_complaint.pdf

60. Umair Irfan, “Pay Attention to the Growing Wave of Climate Change Lawsuits,” Vox, June 4, 2019, https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/2/22/17140166/climate-change-lawsuit-exxon-juliana-liability-kids

61. Reeves Wiedeman, “The Rockefellers vs. the Company That Made Them Rockefellers,” New York Magazine, January 8, 2018, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/01/the-rockefellers-vs-exxon.html

62. David Hasemyer, “Fossil Fuels on Trial. Where the Major Climate Change Lawsuits Stand Today,” Inside Climate News, January 17, 2020, https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04042018/climate-change-fossil-fuel-company-lawsuits-timeline-exxon-children-california-cities-attorney-general; Damian Carrington, “Can Climate Litigation Save the World?,” The Guardian, March 20, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/20/can-climate-litigation-save-the-world

63. The impetus for this lawsuit against ExxonMobil started with Steve Coll, then-president of New America, when he published Private Empire: ExxonMobil and American Power (New York: Penguin Books, 2012). Coll stepped down at the NGO in 2013 to become dean of Journalism at Columbia University. He continued his research, which led to a collaboration with the Los Angeles Times and the publication of “What Exxon Knew about the Earth’s Melting Arctic,” by Sara Jerving et al., October 9, 2015, https://graphics.latimes.com/exxon-arctic/

64. Ron Bousso, et al., “Shell Ordered to Deepen Carbon Cuts in Landmark Dutch Case,” Reuters, May 26, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/dutch-court-orders-shell-set-tougher-climate-targets-2021-05-26/

65. The First Amendment to the US Constitution states that “Congress shall make no law . . . abridging . . . the right of the people peaceably to assemble,” https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/bill-of-rights-transcript#toc-amendment-i-2

66. Dareh Gregorian, Courtney Kube, and Carol E. Lee, “Trump Says He Will Deploy Military if State Officials Can’t Contain Protest Violence,” NBC News, June 1, 2020,  https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-considering-move-invoke-insurrection-act-n1221326

67. Tal Axelrod, “Three States Push Criminal Penalties for Fossil Fuel Protests amid Coronavirus,” March 27, 2020, https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/489960-three-states-push-criminal-penalties-for-fossil-fuel-protests-amid

68. For a few of the many recent examples of oil and gas protests, see https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/218708/oil-giant-targeted-in-climate-protest/; https://www.vox.com/2020/1/16/21067763/harvard-law-climate-protest-exxon-paul-weiss; https://apnews.com/149c94212b1d4843bcf1ef41f6c94647;

69. Google searches on June 3, June 10, and October 12, 2020, yielded 49.9 to 51.3 million hits in 0.5 to 0.6 seconds.

70. Lisa Johnson and Moira Wyton, “Counter-Protesters Break Down Rail Blockade in West Edmonton as CN Wins Injunction Against Pipeline Opponents,” Edmonton Journal, February 20, 2020, https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/protesters-block-cn-rail-line-in-west-edmonton; “Greenpeace Activists Board Shell Oil Rigs in Protest against Plans to Leave Behind Oil in the North Sea,” October 14, 2019,https://www.greenpeace.org/international/press-release/24826/greenpeace-activists-board-shell-oil-rigs-in-protest-against-plans-to-leave-behind-oil-in-the-north-sea/; Nicholas Kusnetz, “Texas Charges Oil Port Protesters under New Fossil Fuel Protection Law,” September 19, 2019, https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16092019/oil-port-protesters-charged-texas-fossil-fuel-infrastructure-law-pipelines-greenpeace-houston

71. Kai Bosworth, “The People Know Best: Situating the Counterexpertise of Populist Pipeline Opposition Movements.” Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 2019, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/24694452.2018.1494538

72. For protest archives, see 350.org, “Stop the Keystone XL Pipeline,” https://350.org/stop-keystone-xl/; https://350.org/category/topic/kxl/; https://350.org/kxl-victory/. For a chronology through 2017, see “A Chronological History of Controversial Keystone XL Pipeline Project,” CBC, January 24, 2017, https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/keystone-xl-pipeline-timeline-1.3950156

73. IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, “The Role of Canadian Oil Sands in US Oil Supply,” 2010, https://cdn.ihs.com/ihs/cera/The-Role-of-Canadian-Oil-Sands-in-US-Oil-Supply.pdf

74. Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, “Oil and Natural Gas Pipelines,” 2019, https://www.capp.ca/explore/oil-and-natural-gas-pipelines/

75. “Revisiting the Keystone Pipeline,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 1, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3Vx3Sc3SQE&feature=youtu.be

76. Alexis Madrigal, “The Great Crude-Oil Fireball Test,” The Atlantic, February 5, 2018, https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/02/the-great-crude-oil-fireball-test/552029/

77. Jeff Brady, “Builder of Controversial Keystone XL Pipeline Says It’s Moving Forward,” NPR, March 31, 2020, https://www.npr.org/2020/03/31/824445928/builder-of-controversial-keystone-xl-pipeline-says-its-moving-forward

78. Jariel Arvin, “More Than 20 Republican-Led States Sue Biden for Canceling the Keystone XL Pipeline,” Vox, March 18, 2021, https://www.vox.com/22306919/biden-keystone-xl-trudeau-oil-pipeline-climate-change

79. Michael Coren, “Covid-19 Is Closing Canada’s Carbon-Intensive Oil Sands For Business,” Quartz, April 29, 2020, https://qz.com/1846830/covid-19-is-closing-canadas-carbon-intensive-oil-sands/

80. Cary Krosinsky, “The Seven Tribes of Sustainable Investing,” LinkedIn, September 11, 2018, https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/seven-tribes-sustainable-investing-cary-krosinsky

81. Billy Nauman, “Sharp Rise in Number of Investors Dumping Fossil Fuel Stocks,” Financial Times, September 9, 2019, https://www.ft.com/content/4dec2ce0-d0fc-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f

82. Tate Williams, “As Top Foundations Resist Divesting from Fossil Fuels, What Might Change Their Minds?,” Inside Philanthropy, January 13, 2020, https://www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/2020/1/13/as-top-foundations-resist-divesting-from-fossil-fuels-what-might-change-their-minds; and Tate Williams, “Major Climate Funders Are Still Invested in Fossil Fuels. Why is That?,” Inside Philanthropy, December 19, 2019, https://www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/2019/12/19/major-climate-funders-are-still-invested-in-fossil-fuels-why-is-that

83. Ellen Burstein and Camille Caldera, “Harvard Endowment Commits to Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050,” Harvard Crimson, April 22, 2020, https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/4/22/endowment-ghg-neutral-2050/

84. Cara Lombardo, Miriam Gottfried, and Rebecca Elliott, “Marathon Petroleum Revives Talks,” Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/marathon-petroleum-in-talks-with-potential-buyers-of-speedway-gas-station-unit-11592515818

85. For examples, see Tim Faulkner, “Providence Divestment from Fossil Fuels Moves Slowly,” EcoRI News, February 22, 2016, https://www.ecori.org/government/2016/2/22/providence-divestment-from-fossil-fuels-moving-slowly; Obi Ezekoye and Jannick Thomsen, “Going, Going, Gone: A Quicker Way to Divest Assets,” McKinsey & Company, 2018, https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Strategy%20and%20Corporate%20Finance/Our%20Insights/Going%20going%20gone%20A%20quicker%20way%20to%20divest%20assets/Going-going-gone-a-quicker-way-to-divest-assets.pdf

86. For examples, see Dow Jones, https://www.indexologyblog.com/2019/11/25/should-green-benchmarks-include-fossil-fuel-stocks/; Bloomberg New Energy Finance, https://data.bloomberglp.com/bnef/sites/4/2014/08/BNEF_DOC_2014-08-25-Fossil-Fuel-Divestment.pdf; MSCI, https://www.msci.com/www/research-paper/foundations-of-esg-investing/0795306949;  Sustainalytics, https://www.sustainalytics.com/esg-blog/esgarp-scores-in-search-of-reasonably-priced-low-esg-risk-stocks/

87. Sophie Yeo, “Here’s How Shareholders Are Pressuring Oil Companies to Act on Climate Change,” Desmog Blog, May 13, 2020, https://www.desmogblog.com/2020/05/13/here-s-how-shareholders-are-pressuring-oil-companies-act-climate

88. See, for example, https://www.upcounsel.com/shareholder-resolution;Paul Keirnan, “SEC Seeks to Curb Shareholder Resolutions,” Wall Street Journal, February 9, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-seeks-to-curb-shareholder-resolutions-11581264001

89. “Oil Majors Face Shareholder Resolutions on Climate Change,” The Economist, May 30, 2019, https://www.economist.com/business/2019/05/30/oil-majors-face-shareholder-resolutions-on-climate-change

90. Climate Action 100+, “Global Investors Driving Business Transition,” http://www.climateaction100.org/

91. Ceres, “Shareholder Resolutions Database,” https://www.ceres.org/shareholder-resolutions-database

92. “Hedge Fund TCI Vows to Punish Directors over Climate Change,” ICAST Marketing, February 20, 2020, https://www.icastusa.org/tcitopunishdirectors/

93. Clifford Kraus, “Exxon Board to Get a Third Activist Pushing Cleaner Energy, ” New York Times, June 2, 2021,https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/02/business/exxon-board-clean-energy.html

94. David Wethe, “Chevron Shareholders Want Evidence of Climate Change Performance,” World Oil, May 28, 2020, https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/5/28/chevron-shareholders-want-evidence-of-climate-change-performance

95. Inma Galvez-Robles, “19 Youth Climate Activists You Should Be Following on Social Media,” EarthDay.org, June 14, 2019, https://www.earthday.org/19-youth-climate-activists-you-should-follow-on-social-media/

96. Ernst & Young, “How Do We Regenerate This Generation’s View of Oil and Gas?,” 2017, https://assets.ey.com/content/dam/ey-sites/ey-com/en_gl/topics/oil-and-gas/ey-how-do-we-regenerate-this-generations-view-of-oil-and-gas.pdf

97. “Greta Thunberg: What Does the Teenage Climate Change Activist Want?,” BBC, February 28, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49918719

98. Ben Webster, “Professor at St John’s College, Oxford, Turns Oil Row into a Heated Debate,” The Times, January 31, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/professor-at-st-johns-college-oxford-turns-oil-row-into-a-heated-debate-0zr2wpmb5

99. “A Heated Oxford Education,” Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-heated-oxford-education-11580680180

100. David Gorton, “Top 5 Largest University Endowments,” Investopedia, February 6, 2020, https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/081616/top-5-largest-university-endowments.asp

101. Harvard Management Company, “Harvard Endowment Net-Zero Portfolio Commitment,” April 2020, http://www.hmc.harvard.edu/content/uploads/2020/04/Net-Zero-Commitment.pdf

102. John McCormack, Carol Propper, and Sarah Smith, “Herding Cats? Management and University Performance,” Economic Journal, 124, no. 578 (October 2013), https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259548344_Herding_Cats_Management_and_University_Performance

103. Laura Henry et al., “NGO Participation in Global Governance Institutions: International and Domestic Drivers of Engagement,” Interest Groups and Advocacy 8, no. 3 (August 2019): 291–332, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/335846215_NGO_participation_in_global_governance_institutions_international_and_domestic_drivers_of_engagement

104. Michael Edwards, “Herding Cats? Civil Society and Global Governance,” New Economy 9, no. 2 (May 2002): 71–76, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247643064_Herding_cats_Civil_society_and_global_governance

105. This phenomenon is not new. According to Adam Werbach, past president of the Sierra Club, “Every time environmentalists step outside the confines of the environmental discourse to articulate a more expansive, more inclusive and more compelling vision for the future, they cease being environmentalists and start becoming American progressives.” See Adam Werbach, “Where the Environmental Movement Can and Should Go from Here,” Grist, January 13, 2005, https://grist.org/article/werbach-reprint/

106. The IPCC defined the co-benefits of climate mitigation in 2007. See https://web.archive.org/web/20160525042147/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch4s4-5-3.html

107. Drew Shindell, et al., “Global Methane Assessment,” United Nations Environment Programme and Climate and Clean Air Coalition, May 2021, https://www.unep.org/resources/report/global-methane-assessment-benefits-and-costs-mitigating-methane-emissions

108. Emily Atkin, “The Climate Movement’s Silence,” May 31, 2020, https://heated.world/p/the-climate-movements-silence

109. Emma Foehringer Merchant, “How the Environmental Movement Has Changed,” New Republic, November 29, 2015, https://newrepublic.com/article/124647/environmental-movement-changed

110. Frederik Heylen, Evelien Willems, and Jan Beyers, “Do Professionals Take Over? Professionalisation and Membership Influence in Civil Society Organizations,” Voluntas, March 24, 2020, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11266-020-00214-9

111. Heather Houser, Infowhelm (New York: Columbia University Press, 2020).

112. Carbon Tracker, “Carbon Bubble,” August 23, 2017, https://carbontracker.org/terms/carbon-bubble/

113. Ozge Zihnioglu, “The Prospects of Civic Alliance: New Civic Activists Acting Together with Civil Society Organizations,” International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations 30, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11266-018-0032-9

CHAPTER 8

1. US White House, “Fact Sheet: The White House Announces Commitments to the American Business Act on Climate Pledge,” October 19, 2015, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/10/19/fact-sheet-white-house-announces-commitments-american-business-act

2. US Environmental Protection Agency, “Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator,”  https://www.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gases-equivalencies-calculator-calculations-and-references. Note: To convert natural gas emissions that are reported in metric tons CO2 per thousand cubic feet (scf), it is assumed that there are 5,800 scf per BOE.

3. Dana Nuccitelli, “New Report Finds Costs of Climate Change Impacts Often Underestimated,” Yale Climate Connections, November 18, 2019, https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/11/new-report-finds-costs-of-climate-change-impacts-often-underestimated/

4. John Horowitz et al., “Methodology for Analyzing a Carbon Tax,” US Department of the Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis, Working Paper 115, January 2017, https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/tax-policy/tax-analysis/Documents/WP-115.pdf

5. Jonathan Koomey et al., “Getting Smart about Oil in a Warming World,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 5, 2016, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Gordon-Oil_in_a_warming_world1.pdf

6. Deborah Gordon and Jessica Mathews, “Smart Tax: Pricing Oil for a Safe Climate,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 15, 2016, https://carnegieendowment.org/2016/06/15/smart-tax-pricing-oil-for-safe-climate-pub-63765

7. US National Academy of Sciences, “National Inventories of Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” in Verifying Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Methods to Support International Climate Agreements (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2010), 53-66, http://www.nap.edu/read/12883/chapter/4

8. For examples, see Renee Cho, “More Plastic Is on the Way: What It Means for Climate Change,” Earth Institute, Columbia University, February 20, 2020, https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2020/02/20/plastic-production-climate-change/; Duke University, “Heavy Oils and Petroleum Coke Raising Vanadium Emissions,” December 15, 2017, Physics.org, https://phys.org/news/2017-12-heavy-oils-petroleum-coke-vanadium.html

9. Deborah Gordon and Frances Reuland, “Mapping, Measuring, and Managing Methane: The Critical Role of a Potent Climate Pollutant,” Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, November 2019, https://watson.brown.edu/files/watson/imce/news/ResearchBriefs/2019/Methane%20Report-6%20November%202019.pdf

10. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Global Warming of 1.5 °C,” October 6, 2018, https://ipcc.ch/sr15/

11. See Scenario P1: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Characteristics of Four Illustrative Model Pathways,” 1.5 °C Special Report, Summary for Policymakers, Figure SPM.3b, http://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm

12. Paul Davies and Michael Green, “EU Issues New Sustainable Investment Disclosure Rules,” Latham & Watkins, April 5, 2019, https://www.globalelr.com/2019/04/eu-issues-new-sustainable-investment-disclosure-rules/

13. UN Climate Change, “Reporting and Review under the Paris Agreement,” https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/transparency-and-reporting/reporting-and-review-under-the-paris-agreement

14. Studies indicate US oil and gas inventories underestimate methane emissions by as much as 60 percent. See Ramon Alverez et al., “Assessment of Methane Emissions from U.S. Oil and Gas Supply Chain,” Science 361, no. 6398 (July 2018), http://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6398/186. The European Union’s GHG inventory (EDGAR) uses uniform oil and gas volumes as the indicator of supply-side emissions. See Monica Crippa et al., “High Resolution Temporal Profiles in the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research,” Scientific Data 7 (April 2020): Article 121, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-0462-2; for detailed table see https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-0462-2/tables/4

15. US Environmental Protection Agency, Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP), “GHGRP Refineries,” July 15, 2021, https://www.epa.gov/ghgreporting/ghgrp-refineries; Dean Foreman, “The U.S. Refining Industry—Striving to Maintain Global Leadership,” American Petroleum Institute, October 2, 2019,  https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/blog/2019/10/02/us-refining-industry-striving-to-maintain-global-leadership

16. Eric Kort et al., “Four corners: The largest US methane anomaly viewed from space,” Geophysical Research Letters (41) 19, 6898-6903, October 16, 2014, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL061503

17. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories,” https://www.ipcc.ch/report/2019-refinement-to-the-2006-ipcc-guidelines-for-national-greenhouse-gas-inventories/

18. Deborah Gordon and David Livingston, “Petroleum Coke Use in India and South Asia: Recent Trends and Energy Policy Options,” in Connectivity and Trading in Power & Energy: A Regional and International Dimension, Syed Munir Khasru, ed. 17-30, (Bangladesh: IPAG, 2017), https://carnegieendowment.org/files/PetcokeUseIPAG.pdf. For national flows see Chatham House, “ResourceTrade.earth,” https://resourcetrade.earth/data?year=2018&category=141&units=value

19. Wang Tao, “Managing China’s Petcoke Problem,” Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/petcoke.pdf

20. For these nations’ (and others’) petcoke import/export statistics see http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?q=petroleum&d=EDATA&f=cmID%3aPK. The air quality in Delhi is so bad that the High Court compared the city to “living in a gas chamber.” Smog obscured sunlight and visibility and smelled of woodsmoke. See “Death by Pollution: Delhi’s Fight for Clean Air,” CNN Money, February 17, 2016, http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/17/news/economy/india-new-delhi-air-pollution/index.html; For petcoke bans, see “India Bans Pet Coke Imports for Use as a Fuel,” Hindu Business Line, August 17, 2018, https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/commodities/india-bans-pet-coke-import-for-use-as-fuel/article24716341.ece

21. “China Limits Higher-Sulfur Coke Use in Key Regions,” Argus Media, July 16,  2019,  https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/1940947-china-limits-highersulphur-coke-use-in-key-regions

22. International Maritime Organization, “Sulphur 2020 – Cutting Sulphur Dioxide Emissions,” http://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/Pages/Sulphur-2020.aspx

23. India is the only country that is currently banning petcoke. See PTI, “Ensure Ban on Petcoke and Furnace Oil, NGT Directs CPCB,” The Hindu, July 17, 2020, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ensure-ban-on-petcoke-and-furnace-oil-ngt-directs-cpcb/article32112214.ece; for plastic bans see Laura Parker, “Plastic Bag Bans Are Spreading. But Are They Truly Effective?,” National Geographic, April 17, 2019, https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/04/plastic-bag-bans-kenya-to-us-reduce-pollution/

24. Pratim Ranjan Bose, “Petcoke Imports Double on Plunging Global Price, Absence of Carbon Tax,” Hindu Business Line, June 27, 2016, updated January 20, 2018, https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/policy/petcoke-imports-double-on-plunging-global-prices-absence-of-carbon-tax/article8780325.ece#

25. For details on Governor Newsom’s managed oil decline see https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/california-forum/article239537598.html. For details on using the OCI+ to determine which assets to turn on after the COVID pandemic see https://www.brinknews.com/not-all-oil-is-equal-which-types-should-oil-companies-turn-back-on-as-the-economy-recovers-paris-agreement-climate-change-post-covid/

26. Jared Huffman, “Rep. Huffman Introduces Energy Transparency Legislation,” July 19, 2017, https://huffman.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/rep-huffman-introduces-energy-transparency-legislation-know-your-oil-act-and-carbon-pollution-transparency-act. For text see H.R. 6082, 114th Congress (2015–2016), https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/114/hr6082 and H.R. 3285, 115th Congress (2017–2018), https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3286?s=1&r=82

27. California Legislative Information, “AB-3217: Greenhouse Gases: Crude Oil and Emissions,” February 21, 2020, http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201920200AB3217

28. Personal communication with Dr. Daniel Jacob, Harvard University, May 7, 2020, following the release of private sector error-prone data from a government satellite as reported here: https://scitechdaily.com/mapping-methane-emissions-on-a-global-scale/

29. Kristina Makansi, “Carbon Expert Brings Mission-Focused, Team Approach Addressing Climate Change,” UA@Work, January 28, 2020, https://uaatwork.arizona.edu/lqp/carbon-expert-brings-mission-focused-team-approach-addressing-climate-change; Carbon Mapper, https://carbonmapper.org/

30. Daniel Cusworth et al., “Multisatellite Imaging of a Gas Well Blowout Enables Quantification of Total Methane Emissions,” Geophysical Research Letters 48, no. 2 (January 28, 2021), https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL090864

31. United Nations Climate Change, “Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs),”  https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions/ndc-registry#eq-1

32. Mohammad Masnadi et al., “Global Carbon Intensity of Crude Oil Production,” Science 361, no. 6405 (August 31, 2018), https://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6405/851; Liang Jing et al., “Carbon Intensity of Global Crude Oil Refining and Mitigation Potential,” Nature Climate Change 10 (June 2020),https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0775-3

33. Quirin Schiermeier, “Global Methane Levels Soar to Record High,” Nature, July 14, 2020, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02116-8

34. Katherine Konschnik and Frances Reuland, “Canadian Oil and Gas Methane Rules to Kick Off in 2020—Others Likely to Follow,” International Energy Agency, February 17, 2020, https://www.iea.org/commentaries/canada-steps-up-its-efforts-to-reduce-methane-emissions

35. Katherine Konschnik and Sarah Marie Jordaan, “Reducing Fugitive Methane Emissions from the North American Oil and Gas Sector: A Proposed Science-Policy Framework,” Climate Policy 18, no. 9 (2018), https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14693062.2018.1427538?journalCode=tcpo20

36. Alissa Rubin and Clifford Krauss, “Toxic Twilight as Iraq Burns Precious Gas,” New York Times, July 17, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/world/middleeast/iraq-gas-flaring-cancer-environment.html

37. World Health Organization, “Air Pollution,” https://www.who.int/health-topics/air-pollution#tab=tab_1

38. Brad Plumer, “Europe’s Love Affair with Diesel Cars Has Been a Disaster,” Vox, October 16, 2015, https://www.vox.com/2015/10/15/9541789/volkswagen-europe-diesel-pollution

39. Deborah Gordon and Jessica Mathews, “Smart Tax: Pricing Oil for a Safe Climate,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2016, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/GordonMathews_CarbonTax_Final.pdf

40. See “Whitehouse, Booker, Schatz Unveil Methane Fee to Clamp Down on Potent Drive or Climate Change,” March 9, 2021, with the linked text of the Methane Emissions Reduction Act, https://www.whitehouse.senate.gov/news/release/whitehouse-booker-schatz-unveil-methane-fee-to-clamp-down-on-potent-driver-of-climate-change

41. Leo Levinson and Deborah Gordon, “DRIVE+: Promoting Cleaner and More Fuel Efficient Motor Vehicles through a Self-Financing System of State Sales Tax Incentives,” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 9, no. 3 (Summer 1990), https://www.jstor.org/stable/3325286

42. Inger Sunde et al., “Ren, norsk olje?,” NRK, December 12, 2015, https://www.nrk.no/dokumentar/xl/ren_-norsk-olje_-1.13150883

43. Thomas Kühn et al., “Effects of Black Carbon Mitigation on Arctic Climate,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20 (May 2020), https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5527-2020

44. Merritt Turetsky et al., “Carbon Release through Abrupt Permafrost Thaw,” Nature Geoscience 13 (February 2020), https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0526-0.epdf

45. Thomas Lovejoy and Carlos Nobre, “Amazon Tipping Point: Last Chance for Action,” Science Advances 5, no. 12 (December 2019), https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/12/eaba2949

46. J. T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, and J. J. Ephraums, eds., The IPCC Scientific Assessment (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990).

47. See Table 3.2 (and text following) for more details.

48. Michelle Cain et al., “Improved Calculation of Warming-Equivalent Emissions for Short-Lived Climate Pollutants,” Nature Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2019, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/335608530_Improved_calculation_of_warming-equivalent_emissions_for_short-lived_climate_pollutants

49. James Pethokoukis, “US Federal Research Spending Is at a 60-Year Low,” American Enterprise Institute, May 11, 2020, https://www.aei.org/economics/us-federal-research-spending-is-at-a-60-year-low-should-we-be-concerned/; International Energy Agency, “Global Energy Investment Stabilized above USD 1.8 Trillion in 2018, but Security and Sustainability Concerns Are Growing,” May 14, 2019, https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2019/may/global-energy-investment-stabilised-above-usd-18-trillion-in-2018-but-security-.html

50. David Iaconangelo, “ARPA-C? Biden’s 100% clean energy plan questioned,” E&E News, May 28, 2020, https://www.eenews.net/stories/1063251621

51. “Million-Mile Car Batteries Are Coming,” The Economist, July 30, 2020, https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/07/30/what-the-million-mile-battery-means-for-electric-cars

52. Robert Service, “Can the World Make the Chemicals It Needs without Oil?,” Science Magazine, September 19, 2019, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/09/can-world-make-chemicals-it-needs-without-oil

53. “Better living through chemistry” was initially branded by DuPont in 1935. DuPont reportedly dropped “through chemistry” in 1982, and in 1999, the tagline was replaced with “the miracles of science.” See https://adage.com/article/btob/dupont-replaces-1935-tagline-reflect-corporate-change/247761

54. Akshat Rathi, “A Tiny Tweak in California Law Is Creating a Strange Thing: Carbon-Negative Oil,” Quartz, July 1, 2019, https://qz.com/1638096/the-story-behind-the-worlds-first-large-direct-air-capture-plant/

55. Jonathan Watts, “US and Saudi Arabia Blocking Regulation of Geoengineering, Sources Say,” The Guardian, March 18, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/18/us-and-saudi-arabia-blocking-regulation-of-geoengineering-sources-say

56. Deborah Gordon, “Understanding Climate Engineering,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 21, 2017, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Understanding_Climate_Engineering_Web.pdf

57. Deborah Gordon et al., “Advancing Public Climate Engineering Disclosure,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 29, 2018, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Gordon_Advancing_Public_Disclosure_On_Climate_Engineering_June_2018.pdf; Noah Deich, “Everything and the Carbon Sink,” November  18,  2014, https://carbonremoval.wordpress.com/2014/11/18/arpa-c-how-an-advanced-research-projects-agency-for-carbon-could-catalyze-development-of-the-cdr-field/

58. Danish Oil and Gas (DONG) transformed its business into a renewable energy business and was renamed Orsted. By 2025 it plans to be carbon neutral. See Adele Peters, “How This Danish Energy Company Is Transitioning from Oil and Gas to All Renewables,” Fast Company, February 5, 2020, https://www.fastcompany.com/90459425/how-this-danish-energy-company-is-transitioning-from-oil-and-gas-to-all-renewables#

59. Colette Cohen, “Opportunity to ‘Reimagine’ North Sea for Net Zero Says OGTC Chief,” Energy Voice, December 27, 2019, https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/214554/opportunity-to-reimagine-north-sea-for-net-zero-says-ogtc-chief/

60. Aera, “How Belridge Solar Was Shared around the World,” November 29, 2017, https://www.aeraenergy.com/how-belridge-solar-was-shared-around-the-world/

61. “Equinor Wins Opportunity to Develop the World’s Largest Offshore Wind Farm,” September 20, 2019, https://www.equinor.com/en/news/2019-09-19-doggerbank.html

62. John Cox, “Financing Trouble, Design Changes Delay Major Solar Project in West Kern Oilfield,” Bakersfield.com, September 30, 2019, https://www.bakersfield.com/financial-trouble-design-changes-delay-major-solar-project-in-west-kern-oilfield/article_6f692be4-e3bb-11e9-92a5-771e6c569123.html

63. “Product Life Cycle Accounting and Reporting Standard,” World Resources Institute and World Business Council for Sustainable Development, September 2011.

64. Pippa Stevens, “Goldman Sachs to Spend $750 Billion on Climate Transition Projects and Curb Fossil Fuel Lending,” CNBC, December 16, 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/16/goldman-sachs-targets-750-billion-for-climate-transition-projects.html

65. Jillian Ambrose and Jon Henley, “European Investment Bank to Phase Out Fossil Fuel Financing,” The Guardian, November 15, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/15/european-investment-bank-to-phase-out-fossil-fuels-financing

66. “Hedge Fund TCI Vows to Punish Directors over Climate Change,” ICAST Marketing, February 10, 2020, https://www.icastusa.org/tcitopunishdirectors/

67. When companies simply sell their dirtiest assets to other companies, this results in emissions leakage that requires ongoing tracking and warranties to eliminate. See Rachel Adams-Heard, “What Happens When an Oil Giant Walks Away,” Bloomberg Green, April 15, 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-tracking-carbon-emissions-BP-hilcorp/

68. MiQ, a nonprofit collaboration between RMI and SystemIQ, is a voluntary industry standard that is designed for oil and gas buyers and sellers to opt into. For more information on MiQ, see https://miq.org/

69. Rakesh Sharma, “OPEC vs. the US: Who Controls Oil Prices?,” Investopedia, October 14, 2020, https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/081315/opec-vs-us-who-controls-oil-prices.asp

70. Deborah Gordon, “Not All Oil Is Equal. As Economies Recover, Which Oils Should Stay in the Ground?” Brink, June 23, 2020, https://www.brinknews.com/not-all-oil-is-equal-which-types-should-oil-companies-turn-back-on-as-the-economy-recovers-paris-agreement-climate-change-post-covid/

71. Chris Le Fevre, “Methane Emissions: From Blind Spot to Spotlight,” Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, July 2017, https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Methane-Emissions-from-blind-spot-to-spotlight-NG-122.pdf

72. “Nigerian Oil and Gas News Digest – February 2020 Round Up,” Lexology, February 29, 2020, https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=788b2fb9-e278-468b-8408-5913d750cf00

73. The World Bank, “Seven Countries Account for Two-Thirds of Global Gas Flaring, April 28, 2021, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/04/28/seven-countries-account-for-two-thirds-of-global-gas-flaring

74. Benjamin Storrow, “Are Oil Majors Serious about Cutting Emissions?,” E&E News, March 25, 2019, https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060128099

75. Climate and Clean Air Coalition, “Reducing Methane Emissions across the Natural Gas Value Chain – Guiding Principles,” 2017, https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/resources/reducing-methane-emissions-across-natural-gas-value-chain-guiding-principles

76. Methane Guiding Principles (MGP) is a voluntary, international multistakeholder partnership between industry and nonindustry organizations with a focus on priority areas for methane mitigation along the natural gas supply chain. For more information see https://methaneguidingprinciples.org/

77. “Former Shell Oil President John Hofmeister Weights in on Rollback of Emissions Rules,” NPR All Things Considered, August 29, 2019, https://www.npr.org/2019/08/29/755555482/former-shell-oil-president-john-hofmeister-weighs-in

78. Catalina Jaramillo, “Bankruptcy Judge Clears Away Final Hurdle in PES Refinery Sale,” WHYY Public Radio, June 25, 2020, https://whyy.org/articles/bankruptcy-judge-clears-away-final-hurdle-in-pes-refinery-sale/

79. For background on these corporate pledges see https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bernard-looney-announces-new-ambition-for-bp.html; https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/shells-ambition-to-be-a-net-zero-emissions-energy-business.html

80. Deborah Gordon and Stephen Ziman, “Petroleum Companies Need a Credible Climate Plan,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 15, 2018,  https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Gordon_Petro_Companies_Need_Climate_Plan_Nov2018.pdf; Daniel Boffey, “Court Orders Royal Dutch Shell to Cut Carbon Emissions by 45% by 2030, ” The Guardian, May 27. 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/26/court-orders-royal-dutch-shell-to-cut-carbon-emissions-by-45-by-2030

81. Companies need to provide additional disclosure to boost the credibility of their ambitions and the ability to deliver on their climate pledges. According to CDP, no petroleum companies are not on the climate disclosure “A” list (2019) and many no longer submit transparency documentation: https://www.cdp.net/en/companies/companies-scores

82. Note that Lloyds Banking Group is a financial services provider and is not the same entity as Lloyd’s of London, which is a British insurance syndicate that insures against risks. See https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/our-brands/ and https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lloyds-london.asp

83. Rachel Koning Beals, “JP Morgan Chase Will Withdraw Support for Some Fossil Fuels,” MarketWatch, February 25, 2020, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jp-morgan-chase-the-oil-industrys-bank-of-choice-to-withdraw-support-for-some-fossil-fuels-2020-02-25

84. BlackRock Investor Communication, January 2020, https://www.blackrock.com/uk/individual/blackrock-client-letter

85. Ivana Kottasova, “BP Will Link Bonuses to 36,000 Workers to Climate Targets,” CNN Business, February 1, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/01/business/bp-shareholders-paris/index.html

86. For a list of ecolabeling organizations focused on reducing carbon emissions, see Ecolabel Index, http://www.ecolabelindex.com/ecolabels/?st=category,carbon

87. Rocky Mountain Institute and SYSTEMIQ, “Global Methane Solutions,” https://www.globalmethanesolutions.org/; Resources for the Future, “Greening Gas: Creating a Market for Low-Methane Natural Gas,” https://www.rff.org/events/rff-live/greening-gas-creating-market-low-methane-natural-gas/

88. For example, see LeeAnn Baronett, “Freedom Isn’t Free . . . of Methane,” Rocky Mountain Institute, June 5, 2019, https://rmi.org/freedom-isnt-freeof-methane/ and Resources for the Future, “Greening Gas: Creating a Market for Low-Methane Natural Gas,” April 24, 2020,https://www.rff.org/events/rff-live/greening-gas-creating-market-low-methane-natural-gas/

89. Experts discuss obstacles to pricing “responsible” gas, including the lack of an established definition, variation in US production basins, pipeline systems not directly connecting producers with buyers, and the need for data through the entire supply chain. See S&P Global Platts, “Looking Ahead: The Energy Transition and Future of Index Development,” April 16, 2020, https://plattsinfo.spglobal.com/2020-Webinar-Americas-Natural-Gas

90. RMI is using the OCI+ and other diagnostic tools to provide oil and gas GHG inputs to Climate TRACE. For background on Climate TRACE, see https://www.climatetrace.org/

91. Dave Roberts, “The Entire World’s Carbon Emissions Will Finally Be Trackable in Real Time,” Vox, July 16, 2020, https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/7/16/21324662/climate-change-air-pollution-tracking-greenhouse-gas-emissions-trace-coalition. See Watt Time: https://www.watttime.org/; Climate TRACE, https://www.climatetrace.org/

92. Oil and gas sector employees expect to retire before age sixty-five. This has been fostered by the industry’s generous retirement contributions coupled with higher wages that cushion individual contributions. See Aon, “Oil and Gas 2018 Retirement Benchmarking,” 2018, https://www.aon.com/getmedia/da46390f-9dbf-430c-95f7-2e7e83b80b2c/Aon_2018_OG_Drilling_and_Services_Manufacturing_Report_Final.aspx

93. Stephanie Rogers, “Retirement Wave and Digital Reinvention Prompt Urgent Talent Reassessment,” Rigzone, December 29, 2017, https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/retirement_wave_and_digital_reinvention_prompt_urgent_talent_reassessment-29-dec-2017-152964-article/

94. Michael Bloomberg, “Let’s Hire Laid-Off Oil and Gas Workers to Fight Climate Change,” Bloomberg Opinion, August 3, 2020, https://www-bloomberg-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2020-08-03/let-s-hire-laid-off-oil-and-gas-workers-to-fight-climate-change

95. See the introduction for my recent experience working with oil and gas industry retirees on creating corporate climate plans and developing GHG mitigation strategies for this sector.

96. Sandia National Laboratories, “Second Act: Sandia Retirees Band Together to Help Small Businesses with Tech Challenges,” January 23, 2019, https://www.newswise.com/articles/second-act-sandia-retirees-band-together-to-help-small-businesses-with-tech-challenges

97. Robert Perkins, “Fossil Fuel Angst Darkens Oil Sector Funding Outlook,” S&P Global, June 6, 2019, https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/articles/fossil-fuel-angst-darkens-oil-sector-funding-outlook

98. For more information on Climate Action 100, see http://www.climateaction100.org/;Damian Carrington, “Firms Ignoring Climate Crisis Will Go Bankrupt, Says Mark Carney,” The Guardian, October 13, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/13/firms-ignoring-climate-crisis-bankrupt-mark-carney-bank-england-governor

99. For example, see the Center for Climate Aligned Finance at RMI, https://climatealignment.org/

100. Cary Krosinsky, “NY State Common’s Climate Plan,” Top1000funds.com, April 19, 2019, https://www.top1000funds.com/2019/04/ny-state-commons-climate-plan/

101. Using the OCI+, compare, for example, oil sands lifecycle GHGs to those of a depleted oil field or a depleted gas field, whose emissions can be greater yet they are not slated for divestment. See https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#total-emissions?ratioSelect=perBarrel&oiltypeSelect=Depleted%20Oil,Extra-Heavy,Depleted%20Gas

102. “Decarbonization Advisory Panel Beliefs and Recommendations,” New York State Common Retirement Fund, April 2019, https://www.osc.state.ny.us/sites/default/files/reports/documents/pdf/2019-07/decarbonization-advisory-panel-2019.pdf

103. Masnadi et al., “Global Carbon Intensity of Crude Oil Production,”; Jing et al., “Carbon Intensity of Global Crude Oil Refining and Mitigation Potential.”

104. Using the OCI+ Preview Web Tool, compare UK Brent to Norway Ekofisk or US Texas Eagle Ford Gas at twenty-year GWP and high methane settings. See OCI+ for more details: https://dxgordon.github.io/OCIPlus/#supply-chain?model=02102002&carbonToggle=off&carbonTax=20.00&stepSelect=ghgTotal&sortSelect=true

105. Decommissioning carries high risks, and assurance agents like Lloyd’s Register are involved in the process. See https://www.lr.org/en-us/decommissioning-services/

106. Deborah Gordon and Madhav Acharya, “Oil Shake-Up: Refining Transitions in a Low-Carbon Economy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 2018, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Gordon_DrivingChange_Article_April2018_final.pdf

107. US Energy Information Administration, “Gasoline and Diesel Refining Margins That Diverged in March Have Moved Closer Together,” August 6, 2020, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44656

108. Scott Jenkins, “U.S. Refiners Reckon with Uncertain Energy Future,” Chemical Engineering, May 2019, https://www.chemengonline.com/u-s-refiners-reckon-uncertain-energy-future/

109. For example, see Yuzhong Zhang, “Quantifying Methane Emissions from the Largest Oil-Producing Basin in the United States from Space,” Science Advances 6, no. 17 (April 22, 2020), https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/17/eaaz5120; World Bank, “Global Gas Flaring Jumps to Levels Last Seen in 2009,” July 21, 2020, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/07/21/global-gas-flaring-jumps-to-levels-last-seen-in-2009

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