‘Papabili’ is the Italian word for persons that are likely to become pope. Technically speaking, the cardinal-electors of a conclave can elect any baptized Catholic male without impediments as pope (those cardinals who are under the age of 80), but most popes that are elected are cardinals. In 2013, the 76-year-old Cardinal Bergoglio was near the bottom of the list of papabili, mostly because of his age. Since Pope Benedict had referred to the limitations of his advanced age in his resignation speech, people speculated that the cardinals gathering for conclave would be looking for a younger member of their ranks.
One major concern among the cardinals was finding someone capable of reforming the Church in the face of the sex abuse scandals and to provide solid management for the Roman Curia and the Vatican Bank, which had become a source of scandal. They also desired a man of dynamic faith who was a vibrant communicator and evangelizer capable of reaching out to the modern world, such as the youth, the media, people of various countries and situations, and those who have become alienated from the Church. Other factors they considered included the ability to speak a number of popular languages and a level of comfort with communicating through modern technology. Pope Benedict’s Twitter handle ‘@Pontifex,’ by which he would periodically send out inspirational ‘tweets’ on matters of faith, had become quite popular in the online world (Matthew Bunson further explains the cardinals’ concerns and expectations in Ch. 3 of Pope Francis).
Over the past 500 years, popes have typically come from Italy since most of the cardinals appointed were Italian. The trend in modern times, however, changed with the election of Cardinal Wojtyla of Krakow as Pope John Paul II and then Cardinal Ratzinger of Germany as Pope Benedict XVI. The face of the College of Cardinals has also changed over the past decades to better reflect the universality of the Church, hence increasing the probability of newly elected popes being other than Italian. Italy still has the largest number of cardinals, but is now followed by the United States.
Matthew Bunson, in his book, lists the global breakdown of cardinals: 61 from Europe, 17 from North America, 16 from South America, 11 from Africa, 11 from Asia, and 1 from Oceania. Also, while declining in Europe and North America, due to increased secularism, Catholicism is growing considerably in the Southern Hemisphere and Asia, even though the persecution of Christians has become an epidemic in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. The vocation crisis plaguing Europe and North America is non-existent in many of these young churches, which now represent the future of the Church. Overall, and thanks to the developing world, the Catholic Church, which literally means ‘Universal Church,’ is growing, and has about 1.3 billion members worldwide.
Cardinal Angelo Scola of the prominent see of Milan, Italy, an excellent communicator and a top theologian, was among the favored papabili. There was also much talk of Cardinal Peter Turkson of Africa, the president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace. British bookies placed their bets on Cardinal Tarsicio Bertone, the experienced Vatican secretary of state and highest-ranking Vatican official after the pope, despite his involvement with the status quo within the Curia. Cardinal Sean O’Malley of Boston and Cardinal Timothy Dolan of New York were on the top of some lists. However, even the American cardinals noted that regardless of the quality of an American candidate, a pope from the United States might not be ideal in the current world situation, for it may be perceived abroad as another symbol of American world dominance.
The 55-year-old Cardinal Luis Tagle of Manila, a charismatic and youthful figure, was a favorite among some, however his election as pope would likely mean a pontificate even longer than that of Pope John Paul II. Cardinal Marc Ouellet of Canada, prefect of the Congregation for Bishops and known for his selection of excellent candidates for the episcopacy, was also mentioned among the papabili. If one is looking for a Latin American candidate, there was Cardinal Odilo Sherer of São Paulo, Brazil, but as the saying goes, “He who enters the conclave as a ‘pope’ leaves it as a cardinal.”
Pope Benedict had given a motu proprio decree allowing for the College of Cardinals to move the beginning of the conclave forward since the Pope had not died and a funeral was not taking place. However, the cardinals settled upon a relatively later date at the urging of American cardinals who wanted to allow for more time for cardinals to get to know each other. This would give a candidate from outside the Roman Curia a better chance of being elected. The cardinals gathered on March 12, 2013, to concelebrate the Mass for the Election of the Roman Pontiff at St. Peter’s Basilica. The last Mass of this type was presided over by Cardinal Ratzinger. This time, Cardinal Angelo Sodano, dean of the College of Cardinals, preached on the most important quality the next pope should have; a heart like Christ the Shepherd.
The cardinals then processed to the Sistine Chapel, with its famous fresco of the Last Judgment as a reminder to them, and chanted Veni Creator Spiritus (Come Creator Spirit), since it is ultimately the Holy Spirit who guides them in selecting the next Roman Pontiff. Then each of the cardinal-electors took an oath in Latin to secrecy and to obey the guidelines laid down for the conclave. Once this was complete, Cardinal Sodano pronounced the traditional words to indicate that all but the cardinal-electors must leave: “extra omnes” (“all others”). Slowly, he walked down the long aisle between the cardinals to seal the doors shut. The only communication the cardinals would have with the outside world was the color of the smoke they would send through the chimney of the Sistine Chapel - black to indicate a vote shy of the two-thirds majority for electing the Roman Pontiff and white to indicate a successful election.
Cardinal Timothy Dolan explains, in a recent ebook “Praying in Rome”, what it is like being a cardinal at a papal conclave, “At the start of the conclave, three scrutatori, three cardinals who are in charge of the ballots, were chosen by lot. They would do the counting and make sure that there is always an exact number of ballots. No debating or conversation goes on during the conclave. The actual time we spent in the Sistine Chapel was an occasion for silence, prayer, and reflection; it is almost a liturgy, a retreat.” The papabili do not campaign, and they are not allowed to. The cardinals do have plenty of opportunity to discuss candidates and issues over meals. “Inside the Sistine Chapel, there’s immense prayer and deep reflection. But outside of it, when we would leave the Sistine and return for meals and the night to Sanctae Marthae, there were very frank and candid conversations. I would ask brother cardinals, ‘What’s he like?’ or ‘Tell me about him. Is the perception accurate?’”
Black smoke poured out of the chimney of the Sistine Chapel four times over two days. A seagull perched on the barren chimney Wednesday afternoon, seemingly waiting with the rest of the world for white smoke. Then, just after 7:00 p.m. of the second day, Wednesday, March 13, white smoke was clearly seen billowing out from the chimney as an ecstatic and growing crowd poured into St. Peter’s Square.