INTRODUCTION
11 “I am wearing”: Shad Kafuri (August 1994), cited in Jacques 2009, p. 113.
12 “Whatever happens”: Hilaire Belloc, The Modern Traveler (1898), part 6.
13 “The farther backward”: Winston Churchill, cited from http://quotationsbook.com/quote/40770/.
19 “distant marginal peninsula,” “Sinocentric world order,” and “a third-class seat”: Frank 1998, pp. 2, 116, 37.
20 “It’s well”: William III of England (1690), cited from Goldstone 2006, p. 171.
22 “between that era”: Crosby 2004, p. 42; italics in original.
26 “History, n.”: Bierce 1911, p. 51.
27 “Progress is made”: Heinlein 1973, p. 53.
29 “The Art of Biography”: Bentley 1905, p. 1.
30 “Soft countries”: Herodotus, History 9.122.
30 “too uniformly stimulating” and “The people”: E. Huntington 1915, p. 134.
32 “None ever wished”: Samuel Johnson, Lives of the Most Eminent English Poets (1780), section on Milton.
34 “advantages of backwardness”: Gerschrenkon 1962.
1. BEFORE EAST AND WEST
39 “When a man”: Samuel Johnson, in James Boswell, Life of Johnson (1791), vol. 3, entry for September 20, 1777.
39 “necessary”: Arthur Young (1761), quoted in Briggs 1994, p. 196.
40 “long one of” etc.: Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations (1776), book I, chapter 8.
41 “elastic geography” etc.: Davies 1994, p. 25.
45 “punctuated equilibrium”: Gould 2007. The expression goes back to an essay Gould published with Niles Eldredge in 1972.
59 “Are you going”: Richard Klein, quoted in “Scientists in Germany Draft Neanderthal Genome,” New York Times, February 12, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/science/13neanderthal.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss.
62 “What a piece”: William Shakespeare, Hamlet, Act 2, scene 2.
63 “inquisitive tendrils” and “The very atoms”: A. C. Clarke 1968, pp. 16, 17.
71 “one lucky mother”: Cann et al. 1987.
72 “modern Chinese man”: “Stirring Find in Xuchang,” China Daily, January 28, 2008, http://www.chinadaily.com/cn/opinion/2008-01/28/content_6424452.htm.
72 “the data”: Ke et al. 2001, p. 1151.
73 “Suddenly … I made out”: Herbert Kühn’s 1923 interview with Maria Sanz de Sautuola, in Kühn 1955, pp. 45–46.
74 “so enthusiastic”: ibid., p. 46.
2. THE WEST TAKES THE LEAD
85 “cognitive arms race”: Pinker 1997, p. 193 (Pinker himself does not subscribe to this theory).
91 “cultivated”: Fuller 2007.
93 “You can’t step”: None of the original works of Heraclitus (flourished c. 500 BCE) survive; Plato quoted this passage in Cratylus 402A in the early fourth century BCE.
106 “a small university city”: Sahlins 2005, p. 209.
106 “Open the gates,” “Thanks to teachers,” and “Be a realist”: quoted in Quattrocchi and Nairn 1968, pp. 17, 30.
106 “erected a shrine” and “The world’s most primitive”: Marshall Sahlins, “The Original Affluent Society,” first published in French in 1968. The quotations come from an English version published in Sahlins 1972, pp. 39 and 37 and reprinted in Sahlins 2005, pp. 134 and 133.
107 “in different ways”: Barker 2006, p. 414.
113 “Free will is for history”: Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace (1869), Epilogue, part II, chapter 11. Translation modified slightly from http://www.gutenberg.org.
3. TAKING THE MEASURE OF THE PAST
135 “From the remotest past”: Spencer 1857, p. 465.
137 “the vanity”: Max Weber, cited in Gerth and Mills 1946, p. 66, note.
139 “exist[ing] in a”: Charles Darwin, The Voyage of the Beagle (1882), chapter 10.
139 agreement among indices: Carneiro 2003, pp. 167–68.
140 “sympathy and even admiration”: Sahlins 2005, pp. 22–23.
141 “Evolutionary theories”: Shanks and Tilley 1987, p. 164.
141 “We no longer”: Ortner 1984, p. 126.
143 “The ships”: Lord Robert Jocelyn, cited from Waley 1958, p. 109.
143 “as if the subjects”: Armine Mountain, cited from Fay 1997, p. 222.
145 “in science”: people regularly attribute these or similar words to Einstein, but no one has been able to trace them back to a source. The strongest claim I have seen is on the One Degree website (http://www.onedegree.ca/2005/04/08/making-einstein-simple), suggesting that the phrase actually comes from a Reader’s Digest summary of the general theory of relativity. Perhaps it was the most important thing Einstein never said (but should have).
145 “I’m just wondering”: Arthur Eddington, quoted in Isaacson 2007, p. 262.
146 Norway and Sierra Leone scores: United Nations Development Programme 2009, Table H, pp. 171, 174 (available at http://hdr.undp.org/en/).
148 E x T → C: L. White 1949, p. 368.
149 “Every Communist”: taken from Mao Zedong’s essay “On Protracted War,” written in May 1937, quoted in Short 1999, p. 368.
151 “because no”: Naroll 1956, p. 691.
157 “conjectures and refutations”: Popper 1963, p. 43.
157 “There could be”: Albert Einstein, quoted in ibid., p. 42.
163 “There are three”: attributed to Benjamin Disraeli by Mark Twain (Twain 1924, p. 246).
170 “Are these” etc.: Charles Dickens, A Christmas Carol in Prose (1843), stave 4.
4. THE EAST CATCHES UP
186 “How can a man”: Plutarch, Life of Alexander 64.
191 “And they gained”: Genesis 47.27, as translated in The New Oxford Annotated Bible (1994), p. 63 OT.
193 “Who then”: Sumerian King List, translated in Kramer 1963, p. 330.
194 “Hunger filled”: The Lamentation over Ur, lines 390–94, translated in Michalowski 1989.
197 “the kings who”: treaty between the Hittites and Amurru, late thirteenth century BCE, translated in Beckman 1999, p. 107.
199 “His Majesty [Ramses] slew”: Ramses II’s victory inscription, translated in Lichtheim 1973–80, vol. II, p. 62.
204 “The Way”: Lü Buwei, Springs and Autumns of Mr. Lü 3.5, translated in de Bary and Bloom 1999, p. 239.
205 “But for Yu”: Zuozhuan Commentary, Duke Zhao Year 1, translated in Legge 1872, p. 578.
205 “the Age of Jade”: Chang 1989, p. 42.
206 “During the reign”: Lü Buwei, Springs and Autumns of Mr. Lü, p. 239.
210 “They tilted”: Classic of Odes, translated in Waley 1937, no. 240.
213 “Crackmaking”: Jiaguwen heji 6,664 front, translated in de Bary and Bloom 1999, p. 12.
216 “the watchers”: Pylos tablet An 657, translated in Chadwick 1987, pp. 40–42.
216 “it is a matter” and “the enemy’s ships”: Ugarit tablets RS 20.212 and 18.147, translated in Astour 1965, p. 255.
216 “The foreign countries” etc.: Ramses III, Medinet Habu inscription, translated in Pritchard 1969, pp. 262–63.
217 “The Land”: Mursili II, Prayer to the Sun Goddess (CTH 376), translated in Pritchard 1969, p. 396.
218 “wasted, bare”: Merneptah, Poetical Stela, translated in Lichtheim 1973–80, vol. II, p. 77.
219 “In those days”: Judges 21.25, translated in New Oxford Annotated Bible, p. 331 OT.
222 “The war chariots”: “Great brightness,” Classic of Odes, translated in Waley 1937, no. 246.
222 “Children of the Sun”: G. E. Smith 1915.
5. NECK AND NECK
231 “I come”: Mencius 7B/4, translated in Lau 2003, p. 158.
232 “In the evening”: Mai zun inscription, translated in Shaughnessy 1991, p. 207.
232 “The heavens”: Bamboo Annals 4.4.5, translated in Legge 1865, Prolegomena p. 149.
233 “Cheap iron”: Childe 1942, p. 183.
235 “I brought back”: Ashur-dan II, translated in Grayson 1991, pp. 134–35.
237 “I built a tower”: Ashurnasirpal II, translated in Luckenbill 1926, paragraphs 433, 445, 455, 472.
238 “If such a disruption”: Bradley 1999, p. 15.
239 “Phoenician men”: Homer, Odyssey 15.415–16.
243 “King You”: Sima Qian, Basic Annals 4.148, from the translation in Nienhauser 1994, p. 74.
246 like a wolf: paraphrased from Lord Byron, “The Destruction of Sennacherib” (1815), stanza 1.
249 “my shepherd”: Isaiah 44.28–45.1, translated in New Oxford Annotated Bible, p. 927 OT.
250 “the Persians”: Herodotus 3.89.
252 “Duke Ling”: Zuozhuan, Duke Xuan 2nd year, translated in Watson 1989, p. 76.
254 “Would that I”: Hesiod, Works and Days, lines 174–76, 197–201.
255 “Man, as we”: Jaspers 1953, p. 1.
255 “The more … in speaking”: Confucius, Analects 9.11 and 12.3, translated in R. Dawson 1993, pp. 32, 44.
255 “it’s beyond me”: Plato, Republic 506e.
255 “The Way”: Laozi, Daodejing 1, translated in de Bary and Bloom 1999, pp. 79–80.
257 “I transmit” and “To subdue oneself”: Confucius, Analects 7.1, 12.1, 7.30, translated in R. Dawson 1993, pp. 24, 44, 26.
257 “act like beggars” and “Regard another’s state”: Mozi 39.2 and 15.11–15, translated in Bloodworth and Bloodworth 2004, p. 31.
258 “For three years,” “You can’t bear,” and “one of the good” etc.: Zhuangzi 7, 26, 33, translated in Palmer et al. 2006, pp. 63–64, 239, 299–300.
259 “the enrichment,” “If in enterprises,” and “A state”: Book of Lord Shang 8.8 and 20, translated in Duyvendak 1928.
263 “Qin has the same” and “It has the heart”: Stratagems of the Warring States (Zhanguoce) chapter 24, p. 869, translated in M. Lewis 2007, p. 40.
263 “Who can be”: Polybius 1.1.
265 “[Lord Shang] commanded”: Sima Qian, Shi ji 68, p. 2230, translated in M. Lewis 2007, p. 30.
266 “To jaw-jaw”: Winston Churchill, speech at the White House, June 26, 1954, published in New York Times, June 27, 1954, p. 1.
266 “Qin is the”: Stratagems of the Warring States (Zhanguoce), chapter 24, p. 869, translated in M. Lewis 2007, p. 40.
267 “We are the”: cited from Paludan 1998, p. 17.
269 “Remember, you are a mortal”: Tertullian, Apology 33; Jerome, Letters 39.2.8 (with discussion in Beard 2007, pp. 85–92).
270 “The Roman custom”: Polybius 10.15.
273 “dispatched his adjutant”: Fan Ye, History of the Later Han, cited from Leslie and Gardiner 1996, p. 43.
274 “In a workshop,” “An inner room,” and “I casually produced”: Wheeler 1955, pp. 170–73.
276 “They have squat bodies”: Ammianus Marcellinus, Histories 31.2.
277 “violence and neglect”: Herodotus 1.106.
278 “Glutton as you are”: Herodotus 1.212.
6. DECLINE AND FALL
280 “All is for”: Voltaire, Candide (1759), chapter 1 and passim.
280 “When the emperor”: Han dynasty poet, cited from Lovell 2006, p. 83.
280 “For the eternal”: Aelius Aristides, To Rome 29, 109.
282 “As things stand”: Sima Qian, Shi ji 48, translated in Watson 1993, pp. 2–3.
284 “All happy families”: Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina (1875), part I, chapter 1, translation from http://www.gutenberg.org.
286 “I think”: Suetonius, Life of Vespasian 23.
286 “All right then”: Monty Python’s Life of Brian (1979).
293 stone chambers, etc.: Chuci, cited from Paludan 1998, p. 49.
295 “Columbian Exchange”: Crosby 1972.
295 “It appears”: cited in Crosby 2004, p. 215.
297 “Recently there have been”: He Gong, cited from McNeill 1976, p. 118.
300 “If you lose”: Wang Fu, Discourses of a Hidden Man, p. 258, translated in M. Lewis 2007, p. 259.
302 “When a new”: Fan Ye, History of the Later Han 71, p. 2299, cited from Twitchett and Loewe 1986, p. 338.
302 “The Han”: Fan Ye, History of the Later Han 72, p. 2322, cited from M. Lewis 2007, p. 262.
303 “My armor”: Cao Cao, cited from M. Lewis 2007, p. 28.
306 “The dead”: History of the Jin Dynasty, chapter 107, pp. 2791–92, translated in Graff 2002, p. 63.
307 “awful revolution”: Gibbon, History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, vol. 3 (1781), subchapter “General Observations on the Fall of the Roman Empire in the West.”
307 “which will ever be”: Gibbon, Decline and Fall, vol. 1 (1776), chapter 1.
307 “Now was revealed”: Tacitus, Histories 1.4.
314 “Why ask for a song”: Sidonius Apollinaris, Poems 12.
314 “All Gaul”: Orientus, Commonitorium 2.184.
320 “Snapped rooftrees”: The Ruin (anon.), cited from Dixon 1992, p. 146.
320 coins that float: cited from Dien 2007, p. 217.
320 “Surely you do not” and “Have you ever”: Ruan Ji, “Biography of Mr. Greatman,” translated in Balazs 1964, p. 238.
323 “Today there is no”: History of Wei 114.3,045, translated in Gernet 1995, p. 7.
325 “He neither bathed”: Athanasius, Life of Saint Antony 27.
326 “We may hear” and “The clergy”: Gibbon, Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, vol. 3 (1781), subchapter “General Observations on the Fall of the Roman Empire in the West.”
7. THE EASTERN AGE
337 “By cutting through”: Pi Rixiu, Quan Tang wen 797.8363b, translated in Xiong 2006, p. 93.
337 “Hundreds of houses”: Bai Juyi, translated in Waley 1961, p. 161. The poem dates to 827.
339 “A bride serves”: Family Instructions of the Grandfather, translated in Ebrey 1996, p. 127.
342 “If they do not die”: Zhu Yu, Conversations in Pingzhou 1,119, translated in Duyvendak 1949, p. 24.
345 “Everyone born”: Procopius, History of the Wars 1.24. The gossip about Justinian’s demons and Theodora’s orifices comes from the same author’s Secret History 12.20 and 9.18.
346 “nobody would go”: John of Ephesus, quoted in Pseudo-Dionysus, Chronicle of Zuqnin 5, translated in Witakowski 1996, p. 93.
348 “Immense joy”: Anonymous treatise, “Return of the Relics of the Holy Martyr Anastasius the Persian from Persia to His Monastery” 1.99, translated in Kaegi 2003, p. 206.
348 “Let us all”: Sebeos of Armenia, History 36, translated in Thomson 1999, p. 73.
350 “Recite!”: Koran 96.1–5. A minority of scholars believes that the first recitation was actually verse 74.
351 “My heart”: ’Umar, cited in Ibn Ishaq, Sira 228, translated in Guillaume 1971, p. 158.
351 “Fight for the sake”: Koran 2.190.
351 “Be peaceful”: Malcolm X, “Message to the Grassroots,” November 1963, cited from DeGroot 2008, p. 117.
351, 352 “Who but” and “Our God”: Koran 2.130 and 29.46.
353 “A victorious line”: Gibbon, Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, vol. 5 (1788), chapter 52.
355 “craving beauty,” “Flowery hairpins,” and “Our souls”: Bai Juyi, Everlasting Wrong, translated by Witter Bynner in Birch 1965, pp. 266, 269.
362 “a Rome”: Anon., Karolus Magnus et Leo Papa, line 97, translated in Godman 1985, p. 202.
367 “Give these monks”: Gerald of Wales, cited from Fagan 2008, p. 36.
367 “pagans are the worst”: Anonymous document, cited in Bartlett 1993, pp. 136–37.
369 “now not pope”: Henry IV, letter to Gregory VII, January 24, 1076. Translated in Mommsen and Morrison 1962, pp. 151–52.
370 “the formation”: R. Moore 1987.
370 “age of cathedrals”: Duby 1981.
370 “One night”: Peter Abelard, Story of My Misfortunes, translated in Muckle 1964, p. 38.
372 “a savage”: William of Apulia, La geste de Robert Guiscard II.427–28, translated in Bartlett 1993, p. 86.
372 “Whenever battle”: Anna Comnena, Alexiad 11.6.3, translated in Bartlett 1993, p. 86.
373 “dissolved the militarists’ power”: Bi Yuan, Continuation of the Comprehensive Mirror for Aid in Government (1797), year 2, translated in Mote 1999, p. 103.
375 “Buddhism is no more”: Han Yu, “Memorial on the Bone of the Buddha” (819), translated in de Bary and Bloom 1999, pp. 583–84.
376 “The true scholar”: Fan Zhongyan, On Yueyang Tower, translated in Hucker 1975, p. 364.
377 “The rivers and lakes”: Ye Shi, translated in Shiba and Elvin 1970, p. 76.
378 “The morning sun”: Daoqian, “On the Way to Guizong Monastery,” translated in Shiba and Elvin 1970, p. 357.
379 “several times cheaper”: Wang Zhen, Treatise on Agriculture 19.13a, 22.4a, translated in Elvin 1973, pp. 195, 198.
379, 380 “the resemblance” and “but if the line”: Elvin 1973, p. 198.
381 “Didn’t you see her”: Su Shi, “Stone Coal” (c. 1080), translated in Wagner 2001b, pp. 51–52. I would like to thank Professor Wagner and Professor Nathan Sivin for discussing this text with me.
8. GOING GLOBAL
384 “I can tell you”: Marco Polo, The Travels, translated in Latham 1958, p. 223. On palaces, see pp. 125–26; riches, p. 149; the Yangzi, p. 209; bridges, p. 163; food, p. 215; young ladies, p. 196; wives, p. 217; courtesans, p. 216; pears, p. 215; black stone, p. 156; fat fish, p, 215; porcelain, p. 238.
389 “as lines of writing”: Yaqut al-Hamawi, translated in Browne 1902, vol. 2, p. 437.
391 “Never has there been” “an immense horde” and “followed after strange gods”: Matthew Paris, English History, translated in Giles 1852, vol. 1, p. 314.
392 “That sunny dome!”: Samuel Taylor Coleridge, Kubla Khan (1797), line 47.
393 “would sit”: Rashid al-Din, Assembly of Histories, translated in Boyle 1971, p. 84.
393 “Just as God”: Mongke Khan, audience with William of Rübruck (1254), translated in C. Dawson 1955, p. 195.
396 “Civilization”: Ibn Khaldun, The Muqaddimah, vol. 1, page 64, cited from Dols 1976, p. 67.
397 “Swellings appeared”: Jean de Venette, Chronicle, 1348, translated in Kirchner and Morrison 1986, p. 455.
397 “People spat”: as-Safadi, cited in Dols 1976, p. 80.
397 “The souls of men”: Ibn Nubatah, as quoted by al-Maqrizi, as-Suluk li-ma‘rifat duwal al-muluk, part II, vol. 3, page 790, cited from Dols 1976, p. 174.
397 “green-eyed Christian[s]”: Chuan Heng, Unofficial History of the Last Yuan Emperor 23a–b, cited in Dardess 1973, p. 105.
398 “We ask God’s forgiveness”: Ibn al-Wardi, Risalat an’naba’, cited from Dols 1976, p. 114.
398 “My mind reels”: Matteo Villani, Chronicles, 1348, translated in Kirchner and Morrison 1986, pp. 448–49.
399 “Stripped to the waist”: Jean de Venette, Chronicle, 1349, translated in Kirchner and Morrison 1986, pp. 457–58.
403 “the earthly heaven”: Gibbon, Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, vol. 6 (1788), chapter 68.
404 “into such a state”: Niccolò Machiavelli, Florentine Histories (1520–25), Book 5, Chapter 1, translation from http://www.gutenberg.org.
406 “For thirty-one years”: Hongwu, translated in Carrington-Goodrich 1976, p. 390.
406 “I do not care”: Emperor Xuande, Xuanzong shi lu (1438) 105, cited in Levathes 1994, p. 173.
406 “foreign ships”: Ch’oe Pu, Diary, translated in Meskill 1965, p. 135.
406 “convert grain into cash”: Qiu Jun, Supplement to “Expositions on the Great Learning” (1487) 25.19b, cited from Brook 1998, p. 103.
407 “to the various”: Proclamation by Yongle, 1405, quoted by Ma Huan, Overall Survey of the Ocean’s Shores (1416), Foreword, translated in Mills 1970, p. 69.
408 “corpse-head barbarian”: Ma Huan, Overall Survey, pp. 5–6, translated in Mills 1970, p. 84. Fei Xin, who accompanied the fleet from 1409 onward, told a similar story (translated in Mills and Ptak 1996, pp. 35–36).
408 “If one’s eyes”: Fei Xin, Overall Survey of the Star Raft (1436), cited from Duyvendak 1949, p. 31. On the Ka’ba, see Mills and Ptak 1996, p. 105.
414 “with all the men”: Gomes Eannes de Azurara, The Chronicle of the Discovery and Conquest of Guinea II.99, cited from Crosby 2004, p. 76.
417 “The voyages”: Gu Qiyuan, Idle Talk with Guests (1617), p. 1, cited from Levathes 1994, pp. 179–80.
417 “At the present”: Erasmus, Letter 522, translated in Nichols 1904, p. 506.
417 “first-born”: Burckhardt 1958 [1860], p. 143.
422 “If we try”: Zhu Xi, Reflections on Things at Hand (1176), cited from Hucker 1975, p. 371.
423 “Since the time”: Xuexuan, translated in Hucker 1975, p. 373.
424 “women’s footbinding began”: Zhang Bangji, Mozhuang manlu 8.5a–b, cited from Ko 2007, p. 111.
424 “Little girls”: Che Ruoshui, Jiaoqi ji 1.221, cited from Ebrey 1993, p. 40.
431, 432 “Whoever is lord” and “China is an important”: Tomé Pires, Suma Oriental, translated in Cortesão 1944, pp. lxxvii, 123.
9. THE WEST CATCHES UP
434 “A rising tide”: John F. Kennedy, speech at Heber Springs, Arkansas, October 3, 1963 (available at http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=9455).
437 “Population has grown”: Xie Zhaozhe, Wuza zu 4.34a (1608), cited from Ho 1959, p. 262.
437 “like mice”: Languedoc expression, cited from Le Roy Ladurie 1972, p. 53.
437 “Every family”: Zhang Tao, Gazetteer of She County (1609) 6.10b–12a, cited from Brook 1998, pp. 1, 4.
437 “In the past”: Heinrich Müller (1560), cited in Braudel 1981–84, vol. 1, pp. 194–95.
439 “the stricken”: Wang Wenlu, “Letter to Master Wei of Chengsong” (1545), cited from Brook 1998, p. 106.
439 “Rare styles”: Gazetteer of Shaowu Prefecture (1543) 2.43b, cited from Brook 1998, p. 144.
439 “are mad for”: Gazetteer of Chongwusuo Citadel (1542), pp. 39–40, cited from Brook 1998, p. 149.
440 “poor scholars”: Zhang Tao, Gazetteer of She County (1609) 3.9a, cited from Brook 1998, p. 258.
440 “benefit the people”: Toyotomi Hideyoshi, “Sword Collection Edict” (1588) 2, translated in Tsunoda et al. 1964, p. 320.
440 “crafty and cunning”: Jesuit Annual Letter (1588), cited from Perrin 1979, p. 27.
444 “They destroyed everything”: Sergeant Iskender (1511), cited from Finkel 2005, p. 99.
446 “It makes me shudder”: Ogier Ghiselin de Busbecq, Letter 3 (1560), cited from Ross and McLaughlin 1953, p. 255.
446 “was neither holy”: Voltaire, Essay on General History and on the Manners and Spirit of the Nations (1756), chapter 70.
447 “God has been”: Mercurino Gattinara, letter to Charles V, July 12, 1519, cited from Brandi 1939, p. 112.
447 “A single monk”: Charles V, Edict of Worms, April 19, 1521, cited from Brandi 1939, p. 132.
449 “The only obstacle”: Ogier Ghiselin de Busbecq, Letter 3 (1560), cited from Ross and McLaughlin 1953, p. 255.
450 “There will be”: Chang Ying, “Remarks on Real Estate” (published around 1697), cited from John Richards 2003, p. 119.
450 “Stop the minor profit”: Official proclamation, seventeenth century, cited from John Richards 2003, p. 120.
451 “Behold the great design”: Anonymous song (published 1661), cited from Wiesner-Hanks 2006, p. 409.
451 “London was enveloped”: John Evelyn, A Character o f England (1659), cited from John Richards 2003, p. 235.
452 “The poorest he”: Colonel Thomas Rainsborough, spoken at Putney Church, October 29, 1647, cited from Woodhouse 1938 (available at http://oll.libertyfund.org/?option=com_staticxt&staticfile=show.php%3Ftitle=2183).
452 “None comes”: Richard Rumbold, spoken at his own execution, London, 1685, cited from Hill 1984, p. 37.
452, 453 “that mighty Leveller” and “Overturn”: Abiezer Coppe, A Fiery Flying Roll I (1649), pp. 1–5, cited from Hill 1984, p. 43.
453 “sharpened their hoes”: cited from Elvin 1973, p. 246.
453 “I, feeble and”: Emperor Chongzhen, suicide note (1644), cited from Paludan 1998, p. 187.
454 “were subjected”: Liu Shangyou, A Short Record to Settle My Thoughts (1644 or 1645), translated in Struve 1993, p. 15.
454 “the robbers and murderers” and “for so long”: Peter Thiele, Account of the Town of Beelitz in the Thirty Years’ War, cited from C. Clark 2006, pp. 32–34.
455 “Sometimes everyone”: cited from Spence 1990, pp. 23–24.
460 “Every day”: Felipe Guaman Poma, New Chronicle and Good Government (1614), cited from Kamen 2003, p. 117.
460 “Every peso”: Antonio de la Calancha (1638), cited from Hemming 2004, p. 356.
461 “Potosí lives”: cited from Kamen 2003, p. 286.
461 “The king of China”: ibid., p. 292.
462 “Along the whole coast”: cited from Lane 1998, p. 18.
464 “If death came”: The saying has been attributed to several sources, but Cardinal Antoine Perrenot de Granvelle said something very similar in a letter dated May 11, 1573, cited in Kamen 1999, p. 252.
464 “naked people”: letter to Juan de Oñate (1605), cited from Kamen 2003, p. 253.
464 “Even if you are poor”: settler’s letter home to Spain, cited from Kamen 2003, p. 131.
468 “one-handed clocks”: Thomas Hardy, Tess of the D’Urbervilles (1891), Phase the First, chapter 3.
468 “The honour and reverence” etc.: Francis Bacon, Novum Organum (1620), preface.
469 “it is not less natural”: René Descartes, Principles of Philosophy (1644), chapter 203.
470 “Nature, and Nature’s laws”: Alexander Pope, “Epitaph: intended for Sir Isaac Newton” (1730). A wit would later add two more lines:
It did not last; the Devil howling “Ho!
Let Einstein be!” restored the status quo.
(J. C. Squire, “In Continuation of Pope on Newton” [1926])
470 “Philosophy is written”: Galileo Galilei (1605), translated in Drake 1957, pp. 237–38.
471 “Man hath by nature,” “The great and chief,” and “by nature all”: John Locke, Second Treatise of Civil Government (1690), chapter 7, section 87; chapter 9, section 124; and chapter 8, section 95.
472 “Dare to know!”: Immanuel Kant, “An Answer to the Question: What is Enlightenment?” (1784) (available at http://www.english.upenn.edu/~mgamer/Etexts/kant.html).
472 “Philosophers should be”: Frederick II, letter to Christian Wolff (1740), cited from Upton 2001, p. 307.
472 “a despotism”: Thomas Carlyle, History of the French Revolution (1837), vol. 3, book 7, chapter 7.
472 “One must examine”: Denis Diderot, “Encyclopedia [Philosophy]” (1751), translated by Philip Stewart at http://www.hti.umich.edu/d/did.
473 “studying the root”: Emperor Kangxi, Kangxi’s Conversations with His Sons 71b–72 (published 1730), translated in Spence 1974, p. 72.
474 “a certain vigor” etc.: Baron de Montesquieu, The Spirit of the Laws (1748), Book 17, translated at http://www.constitution.org/cm/sol11_17.htm#002.
475 “the more he got”: Lu Gwei-djen, cited from Winchester 2008, p. 37.
475 “Sci. in general”: Joseph Needham (1942), cited from Winchester 2008, p. 57.
475 “the Needham Problem”: Boulding 1976, p. 9.
477 “Clear glass”: Kong Shangren, Trying On Glasses (c. 1690), cited from Strassberg 1997, p. 204.
478 “Melting the material”: Xu Guangqi (1631), cited from Elman 2006, p. 30.
479 “I realized” etc.”: Emperor Kangxi, various texts, translated in Spence 1974, pp. 72–75.
482 O tempora, O mores!: Cicero, Against Catiline (63 BCE) 1.1.
483 “These people seemed”: Commander John Rodgers, report to the Secretary of the Navy (1865), cited from Perrin 1979, p. 4.
484 “We have never”: Emperor Qianlong, letter to George III of Britain (1793), cited from Cranmer-Byng 1963, p. 340.
485 “I am the innocentest”: William Kidd (1701), cited from Herman 2004, p. 247.
486 “Credit makes war”: Daniel Defoe, The Complete English Tradesman (1725), vol. 1, chapter 27.
486 “France will undo us”: The Duke of Newcastle (1742), cited from P. Kennedy 1987, p. 98.
486 “conquer America”: William Pitt the Elder (1757), cited from Herman 2004, p. 279.
486 “Our bells are threadbare”: Horace Walpole, letter to George Montagu, October 21, 1759, cited from W. S. Lewis 1941, pp. 250–51.
488 “Make terror”: M. Barère, speech to the National Convention, September 5, 1793, translated in Baker 1987, p. 351.
488 “Let us be masters”: Napoleon Bonaparte, speech at Boulogne (1805), cited from J. R. Green 1879, p. 171.
10. THE WESTERN AGE
491 “the vastness,” etc.: James Boswell, Life of Samuel Johnson (1791), vol. 2. Entry for March 22nd, 1776. Emphasis in original.
491 “ ’Twas in truth”: William Wordsworth, The Prelude (1805), Book 9, lines 161–69. Wordsworth was speaking specifically of the French Revolution.
494 “the vast consumption”: Mineralogia Cornubiensis (1778), cited from Landes 2003, pp. 99–100.
494 “I had gone”: James Watt, as told to Robert Hart, 1817 (the walk took place in 1765), cited from Uglow 2002, p. 101.
495 “rather successful”: James Watt, letter to James Watt, Sr., December 11, 1774 (James Watt Papers, Birmingham City Archives, 4/60), cited from Uglow 2002, p. 248.
495 “If we had”: Matthew Boulton, letter to James Watt, summer 1776, cited from Uglow 2002, p. 256.
495 “It crept into”: Daniel Defoe, Weekly Review, January 31, 1708, cited from Ferguson 2003, p. 17.
501 “The poverty”: Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations (1776), book 1, chapter 8.
503 “has pitilessly torn”: Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, The Communist Manifesto (1848), chapter 1.
503 “energy and perseverance”: Samuel Smiles, Industrial Biography (1863), pp. 325, 332.
503 “Facts alone”: Charles Dickens, Hard Times (1854), chapter 1.
504 “a triumph of fact”: ibid., chapter 5.
504 “He listened patiently”: Friedrich Engels, The Condition of the Working Class in England (1844), chapter 12.
504, 505 “What the bourgeoisie” and “Let the ruling classes”: Marx and Engels, Communist Manifesto, chapters 1, 4.
506 “We consider it”: Anonymous, “The First Half of the Nineteenth Century,” The Economist 9 (1851), p. 57.
507 “Here I am, gentlemen!”: Jules Verne, Around the World in Eighty Days (1873), chapter 37.
509 “white plague”: Ferguson 2003, p. 59.
509 “have an unconquerable aversion”: Isaac Weld, Travels Through the States of North America and Provinces of Upper and Lower Canada During the Years 1795, 1796, and 1797, vol. 1 (1799), pp. 232–33, cited from Williams 2003, p. 310.
509 “For her”: Frank Norris, The Pit (1903), p. 57.
510 “Get a horse!”: cited from Yergin 1992, p. 79.
510 “The development”: Marcus Samuel, letter to Admiral John Fisher, November 1911, cited from Yergin 1992, pp. 154–55.
511 “The first”: Admiral John Fisher, letter to Winston Churchill, 1911, cited from Yergin 1992, p. 155.
511 “propensity to truck”: Smith, Wealth of Nations (1776), chapter 2.
512 “Constant revolutionizing”: Marx and Engels, Communist Manifesto, chapter 1.
513 “The sole end” and “Over himself”: John Stuart Mill, On Liberty (1859), chapter 1.
513 “The principle”: John Stuart Mill, The Subjection of Women (1869), chapter 1.
513 “like the sorcerer”: Marx and Engels, Communist Manifesto, chapter 1.
514 “His feet lost”: Li Ruzhen, Flowers in the Mirror (published 1810s), translated in T. Lin 1965, p. 113.
515 “are all”: Lord Macartney (1793), from Cranmer-Byng 1963, p. 153.
516 “simply did”: paraphrase of a letter from James Matheson to J. A. Smith (September 24, 1839), cited from Fay 1997, p. 191.
517 “as the floating property”: Bernard and Hall 1844, p. 6.
517 “pass over these”: Governor-General Qiying (1842), cited from Spence 1990, p. 164.
517 “castles that moved”: Japanese observers (1853), cited from Feifer 2006, p. 5.
519 “for … the [West’s] middle”: John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919), chapter 1.
519 “The conquest”: Joseph Conrad, Heart of Darkness (1902), chapter 1.
520 “it is the duty”: The Economist 32 (July 1874), p. 802, cited from Davis 2001, p. 37.
520 “The horror! The horror!”: Conrad, Heart of Darkness, chapter 3.
520 “I have seen things”: President Ulysses S. Grant (1879), cited from Feifer 2006, p. 322.
522 “Useless beauty”: Sugimoto Etsu Inagaki, recalling a conversation from the 1870s, cited from Feifer 2006, p. 310.
524 “to cultivate”: Kaiser Wilhelm II (1895), cited from Ferguson 2007, p. 44.
525 “to unite”: Wilhelm II, letter to Tsar Nicholas II (September 26, 1895) (available at http://wwi.lib.byu.edu/index.php/VI_Jagdhaus_Rominten_26/IX/95).
526 “What happened”: Commander Aleksei Nikolaevich Kuropatkin (1905), cited from Ferguson 2007, p. 53.
529 “The financial center”: Secretary of State John Hay, cited from Frieden 2006, p. 141.
530 “the influence of”: Keynes 1930, vol. 2, pp. 306–307.
530 “gazing at their destiny”: George Orwell, The Road to Wigan Pier (1937), pp. 85–86.
531 “I have seen”: Lincoln Steffens (1919), cited from Steffens 1938, p. 463.
531 “It is only”: Lieutenant-Colonel Ishiwara Kanji (1932), cited from Totman 2000, p. 424.
532 “The first cause”: Adolf Hitler to Hjalmar Schacht (1936), cited from Frieden 2006, p. 204.
532 “The war situation”: Emperor Hirohito (August 15, 1954), cited from R. Frank 1999, p. 320.
533 “economic, social and political”: John J. McCloy (1945), cited from Judt 2005, p. 39.
534 “atomic bomb itself”: Churchill, cited from Reynolds 2000, p. 36.
534 “create on the whole”: Internal Kremlin report (1953), cited from Holloway 1994, p. 337.
534 “Strange as it”: Churchill, speech to the House of Commons (1955), cited from Gaddis 2005, p. 65.
536 “Let’s be frank”: Prime Minister Harold Macmillan, speech at Bedford (July 20, 1957), cited from Sandbrook 2005, p. 80.
536 “residents from raw estates”: Philip Larkin, “Here” (1964), reprinted in Larkin 2004, p. 79.
537 “Snub-nosed monsters”: John Steinbeck, The Grapes of Wrath (1939), chapter 5.
540 “if allowed to”: Riesman 1964 (first published 1951), p. 64.
541 “Anything that makes” etc.: Richard Nixon and Leonid Brezhnev, the “Kitchen Debate” (Moscow, July 24, 1959), cited from http://teachingamericanhistory.org/library/index.asp?document=176.
542 “Flog the driver!” etc.: joke cited from Reynolds 2000, p. 541n.
544 “The dearest people”: China Youth Journal (September 27, 1958), cited from Becker 1996, p. 106.
544 “The Party Secretary”: Bo Yibo, Retrospective of Several Big Decisions and Incidents (1993), cited from Becker 1996, pp. 107–108.
544 “It is not”: Lu Xianwen (autumn 1959), cited from Becker 1996, p. 113.
544 “The air is filled”: Report from Jiangxi (autumn 1958), cited from Spence 1990, p. 580.
545 “Communism is paradise”: Song by Kang Sheng (1958), cited from Becker 1996, p. 104.
545 “No one in our family”: Informant, cited from Becker 1996, p. 136.
545 “The worst thing”: Informant, cited from Becker 1996, p. 138.
546 “It was class hatred”: “Li XX,” public poster in Beijing (September 2, 1966), cited from MacFarquhar and Schoenhals 2006, p. 127.
546 “This was the week”: President Richard Nixon, toast at a dinner in Shanghai (February 27, 1972), cited from Reynolds 2000, p. 329.
547 “bookworms who”: Zhang Tiesheng (1973), cited from Spence 1990, p. 638. In 1976 the “Gang of Four” (an ultraleftist clique including Mao Zedong’s widow) was accused of inventing this whole episode.
547 “a socialist train”: slogan attributed to the Gang of Four (1976), cited from Spence 1990, p. 651.
548 “During the ‘Cultural Revolution’”: Deng Xiaoping, speech (September 2, 1986), cited from Gittings 2005, p. 103.
548 “How do you double”: cited from “Soviet Cars: Spluttering to a Halt,” The Economist, July 10, 2008.
549 “We can’t go on”: Mikhail Gorbachev, private conversation (1985), cited from Gorbachev 1995, p. 165.
549 “In the Soviet Union”: Gorbachev 1995, p. 490.
549 “dregs of society”: Deng, speech to party leaders and army officers (June 9, 1989), cited from Spence 1990, p. 744.
550 “Our first objective”: Zalmay Khalilzad, Defense Planning Guidance, FY 1994–1999, Section IB, cited from http://www/gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb245/index.htm (accessed October 17, 2008).
551 “an official who believes”: Patrick Tyler, New York Times (March 8, 1992), p. I1, cited from J. Mann 2004, p. 210.
552 “proceed slowly”: Deng, speech at Shenzhen Folk Culture Village (1992), cited from Gittings 2005, p. 252.
553 “the China price”: Business Week (December 6, 2004), p. 104.
553 “The boss remarked”: Kynge 2006, pp. 89–90.
553 “The direction of the wind”: Mao, speech in Moscow (November 1957), cited from Schram 1969, p. 409.
11. WHY THE WEST RULES …
566 “Men make”: Marx, The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Napoleon (1852).
572 “It is … in vain”: Lord Macartney (1793), from Cranmer-Byng 1963, p. 191.
579 “Let us speculate”: Mao, speech in Moscow, November 18, 1957, cited from Short 1999, p. 489.
580 “hand went up”: R. F. Kennedy 1969, p. 71.
581 “Recorded history”: Elton 1967, p. 62.
12.… FOR NOW
582–83 economic output estimates: National Intelligence Council 2008, p. 6; Wilson and Stupnytska 2007; Hawksworth and Cookson 2008; Maddison 2006; Fogel 2007.
583 “If the courses” and “He became”: Dickens, Christmas Carol, Staves 4 and 5.
585 “Chimerica”: Ferguson and Schularick 2007; Ferguson 2009.
586 2010 growth predictions: International Monetary Fund 2009, Table 1.1.
586 Congressional Budget Office: Douglas Elmendorf, cited from “Falls the Shadow: The Deficit and Health Care,” The Economist, July 25, 2009, p. 25 (available at http://www.economist.com).
586 “After … 1989”: cited from “May the Good China Preserve Us,” The Economist, May 23, 2009, p. 47 (available at http://www.economist.com).
587–88 2030 and 2040 incomes calculated from Maddison 2006, Table 5, and Fogel 2007, Tables 1, 2. Maddison expresses GDP in 1990 US$; I have converted these to 2000 US$ using Bureau of Labor Statistics values (http://stats.bls.gov/).
588 “Soothing Scenario”: J. Mann 2007, p. 1.
588 “Trade freely”: George W. Bush, speech at the Ronald Reagan Library, Simi Valley, California (November 19, 1999), cited in Dietrich 2005, p. 29.
589 “contested modernities”: Jacques 2009, p. 100.
591 “Our way of life”: Jeremy Rifkin, from an interview conducted in 2000, cited from Singer 2009, p. 105.
592 “a future period”: Kurzweil 2005, pp. 5, 24.
593 “the Rapture for Nerds”: an expression coined by the science fiction novelist Ken MacLeod in his novel The Cassini Division (1998).
593 “criticism from incredulity”: Kurzweil 2005, p. 432.
593 “When a scientist”: Richard Smalley, cited from Nicholas Thompson, “Downsizing: Nanotechnology—Why You Should Sweat the Small Stuff,” Washington Monthly, October 2000 (http://washingtonmonthly.com/features/2000/0010.thompson.html).
594 “We can rebuild him”: The Six Million Dollar Man, ABC Television, 1974–78.
595 “We’re not playing”: Craig Venter, cited from Carr 2008.
595 “network-enabled telepathy”: Roco and Bainbridge 2002, p. 19.
599 “Altered frequencies”: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, pp. 12–13.
600 “the really scary stuff,” “the even scarier stuff,” and “global weirding”: T. Friedman 2008, pp. 117, 122, 133. Friedman attributes the third expression to Hunter Lovins, cofounder of the Rocky Mountain Institute.
601 “arc of instability”: National Intelligence Council 2008, p. 61.
601 “climate migrants”: Stern 2006.
601 2006 Gallup poll: “Don’t Drink the Water and Don’t Breathe the Air,” The Economist, January 26, 2008, pp. 41–42 (available at http://www.economist.com).
604 “The world may be”: World Health Organization, “Ten Things You Need to Know About Pandemic Influenza,” http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/pandemic10things/en/index.html (accessed November 29, 2008).
604 “The oil”: Summary of Report on Near Eastern Oil, 800.6363/1511–1512 (National Archives, State Department, Washington, DC), February 3, 1943, cited from Yergin 1992, p. 393.
604 “peaceful rising” and “peaceful development”: B. Zheng 2005.
604 “great drain robbery”: cited from Kynge 2006, p. xiii.
605 “a threat to world peace”: Ipsos-Reid poll (April 2005), cited from “Balancing Act: A Survey of China,” The Economist, Special Report, March 25, 2006, p. 20 (available at http://www.economist.com/specialreports).
605 threat to global stability: Gallup poll (October 2007), cited from “After Bush: A Special Report on America and the World,” The Economist, March 29, 2008, p. 9 (available at http://www.economist.com/specialreports).
605 “PEOPLE AGONIZED”: China Daily headline (May 1999), cited from Hessler 2006, p. 20.
605 “strategic conspiracy”: Chinese Communist Party resolution (2004), cited from “Balancing Act: A Survey of China,” The Economist, Special Report, March 25, 2006, p. 15 (available at http://www.economist.com/specialreports).
605 “it is more likely”: Graham and Talent 2008, p. xv.
606 “No physical force”: Norman Angell, The Great Illusion (1910), cited from Ferguson 1998, p. 190.
606 “international movement of capital”: Jean Jaurès, cited from Ferguson 1998, p. 190.
606 “must involve the expenditure”: Prime Minister Edward Grey in conversation with the Austrian ambassador to Britain, July 1914, cited from Ferguson 1998, p. 191.
606 “total exhaustion”: Grey, letter to the German ambassador to Britain, July 24, 1914, cited from Ferguson 1998, p. 191.
607 “I do not know”: Albert Einstein, interview with Alfred Werner, Liberal Judaism (April—May 1949), cited from Isaacson 2007, p. 494.
608–609 estimates: Richardson 1960; Smil 2008, p. 245, http://www.thebulletin.org/content/doomsday-clock/overview.
609 “guys with gross obesity”: Anonymous official in the Indian Foreign Ministry, cited from “Melting Asia,” The Economist, June 7, 2008, p. 30 (available at http://www.economist.com).
609 “The first era”: T. Friedman 1999, p. xix.
609 “Globalization 3.0”: T. Friedman 2005, p. 10.
610 “The only salvation”: Albert Einstein, New York Times, September 15, 1945, cited from Isaacson 2007, pp. 487–88.
610 “If the idea”: Albert Einstein, comment on the film Where Will You Hide? (May 1948), Albert Einstein Archives (Hebrew University, Jerusalem) 28–817, cited from Isaacson 2007, p. 494.
612 David Douglas, International Energy Agency: statistics in this and the following paragraph cited from T. Friedman 2008, pp. 31, 73, 59–60.
613 “But where are they?” Enrico Fermi, Los Alamos, circa 1950, cited from Jones 1985, p. 3.
615 “We will see”: Steven Metz, interview with Peter Singer, September 19, 2006, cited from Singer 2009, p. 240.
615 “the U.S.”: Roger Cliff, The Military Potential of China’s Commercial Technology (2001), quoted in Singer 2009, p. 246.
618 “human space” etc.: Adams 2001.
621 “They have ridden” etc.: Rudyard Kipling, “The Ballad of East and West,” MacMillan’s Magazine, December 1889.
621 archaeologists and television: Diamond 2005, p. 525.
APPENDIX
634 jet bomber and Roman legionary: Sean Edwards, “Swarming and the Future of Warfare,” unpublished PhD dissertation, Pardee Rand Graduate School, 2005, p. 136, cited from Singer 2009, p. 100.