Chapter 31

In This Chapter

Events that may have changed the course of the war

Simple things that may have helped change history

N o one who studies the Civil War or visits a battlefield can help but think “What if?” The question is a valid one to ask, because the Union victory in the Civil War was not a sure thing by any means. The fate of much of the world’s future history was balanced on chance, luck (both good and bad), and circumstance. By taking a look at some of these “what if” scenarios, you can always get a discussion (or even more) started by simply opening a conversation about the Civil War with the question “What if. . . .”

The following are topics intended to stimulate discussion, debate, or fistfights, depending on your mood and toleration for violence. Sometimes it is nice to ask the question and then stand back to watch the fireworks as people get wrapped up in the endless possibilities of what the world would be like if certain events had come out differently than they did.

What If the Confederates Had Pursued After Bull Run?

The First Battle of Bull Run in July 1861 ended with the defeated Union army falling back in disorder toward the safety of Washington. As officers lost control of their units, the army’s retreat turned into a rout (this is a military term for the disintegration of a military organization — every man for himself, in other words). What would have happened if Generals Johnston or Beauregard, or later Jefferson Davis when he arrived on the battlefield, had decided to order a general pursuit of the enemy? A good number of Confederate units had not been engaged, and cavalry and artillery were available to chase the enemy into Washington itself. Would the war have ended? Would the Union government have abandoned Washington? Would the Lincoln government sue for peace after such a debacle? Would a Confederate pursuit of the defeated Union army led to any decisive long-term results? Would the total defeat of the Union army have affected Northern resolve to continue the war?

What If Grant Were Killed at Shiloh?

While rallying his defeated troops during the battle, Grant was almost seriously wounded or killed by a shell fragment. In 1862, he was a relatively unknown officer. Shiloh almost ended his military career anyway. But what would have happened if Grant had been killed or cashiered from the army in disgrace after Shiloh? Could the Union have won the war without him? Was his strategic brilliance and instinctive grasp of the operational level of war essential to victory? Who could have taken his place? Could any other General in the Union army been able to orchestrate the Vicksburg Campaign or the 1864–1865 dual simultaneous campaign to crush the Confederacy?

What If Fort Sumter Had Not Been Fired On?

What if Davis had decided that building the Confederacy’s military strength and winning friends in Europe were more important than national honor? What if he had called Lincoln’s bluff and allowed the Sumter garrison to be resupplied without taking any military action? Sumter would have had little military effect on activities in Charleston anyway. What would Lincoln have done? If the U.S. flag had not been fired upon, could Lincoln have relied upon the state governors to supply troops? Would he have had to use force against the Confederate states to coerce them back into the Union — and therefore become the aggressor?

What If McClellan Had Not Found Lee’s Lost Orders?

During the Confederate invasion of Maryland in 1862, Lee’s entire campaign plan fell into McClellan’s hands by a stroke of incredible luck. The result was the battle of Antietam, where Lee was able to hold on by a combination of heroic acts by his soldiers and the over-caution of McClellan. Nonetheless, the battle was decisive strategically because it allowed Lincoln to issue the Emancipation Proclamation. What would have happened if McClellan had never known of Lee’s intentions in this campaign? Would Lee have been able to fight the kind of battle he wanted, placing McClellan and the Army of the Potomac in a position where Lee could have gained a decisive victory — and independence?

What If McClellan Had Won Decisively at Antietam?

Technically, McClellan did win the battle at Antietam, but allowed Lee’s army to slip away to fight again. What if McClellan had suddenly realized what was actually happening on the battlefield and ordered a general advance through the center of Lee’s lines after the Union breakthrough at Bloody Lane? Would Lee’s army have been destroyed in this battle? Would this defeat have ended the war? What kind of peace would have followed in 1862? Would McClellan have become the savior of the republic that he always believed himself to be? What kind of political fortunes would McClellan have reaped as a result of the destruction of the Army of Northern Virginia and Union victory?

What If Johnston Had Not Been Wounded at Seven Pines?

The loss of Joseph E. Johnston at the battle of Seven Pines in 1862 forced Confederate President Jefferson Davis to turn to his military advisor, General Robert E. Lee, to take command during this great crisis. McClellan and the Union army were standing before Richmond, the Confederate capital. Lee was known only as the General who had lost western Virginia to the Confederacy a few months earlier. But Lee took command, and the rest is history, as they say. What if Johnston had not been wounded? With Lee relegated to serving in a relatively minor advisory position, what would the Confederate army under Johnston have accomplished? Would Johnston have defended the capital, defeated McClellan, and saved Richmond from capture? Would McClellan have overwhelmed Johnston’s army and taken Richmond, thus ending the war? What would Johnston have done with Jackson’s command?

What If Davis Had Adopted a Different Strategy in the West?

Confederate President Jefferson Davis’s strategic decision to defend everywhere at once in the Western Theater had disastrous consequences. What if Davis had decided on a more flexible strategy to defend key points vital to the Confederate war effort? What if he had adopted a strategy of an active defense in the West, trading space for time, seeking a decisive battle when Union armies were vulnerable? What if Confederate strategy in the West focused on naval power dominating the Mississippi, Cumberland, and Tennessee Rivers to deny Union access to the interior of the South?

What If Lee Had Won at Gettysburg?

This battle is considered the decisive battle in the Eastern Theater. What if Lee had won this battle on Northern soil? Would Lincoln have appointed a new commander to replace Meade? Where would the Confederate army have gone next? Would the Lincoln government have been able to survive politically after this defeat? Would this victory have made the difference for Confederate hopes? How would Northern morale have been affected? Could the South have followed up on this victory, even after experiencing defeat at Vicksburg? Would the victory have been too costly?

What If Davis Had Relieved Bragg Earlier in the War?

General Braxton Bragg was a loyal friend of Jefferson Davis. Because of this friendship and because of his antipathy toward Joseph E. Johnston, Davis kept Bragg in command of the Army of Tennessee long after he ceased to be effective. What if Davis had swallowed his pride a bit and put Johnston in charge earlier than he finally did? Could Johnston have turned the fortunes of the army around if he had taken command in 1862 or 1863? Could Johnston have carried out Davis’s grand strategic designs for the Western Theater?

What If Jackson Had Not Been Lost?

The team of Robert E. Lee and Thomas Jackson is legendary in American history. Few American military commanders have had such a compatibility and innate understanding of each other’s intentions and abilities. Lee and Jackson were spectacular. What if Jackson had not been wounded at Chancellorsville? Would the Army of Northern Virginia have been truly unbeatable? Would the outcome of Gettysburg have been different if Jackson had led his corps? Would Lee’s battle plans have been different in the 1864 campaign if Jackson had lived? Could Grant have defeated the team of Lee and Jackson? What would Jackson have done after the war — win or lose?