Chapter 1
1. Most believe that the dance originated with the freedom fighters who eventually delivered independence to modern Zimbabwe—the Zimbabwe People’s Revolutionary Army (ZIRPA)—and that they introduced it to South African liberation fighters who were training there. Jocelyn Alexander and JoAnn McGregor, “The Travelling Toyi-Toyi: Soldiers and the Politics of Drill,” Journal of Southern African Studies online (2020): 1–18.
2. Charles Dugmore, “The Making of Krugersdorp: The History of the Making of a Mining Town on the West Rand, 1887–1923” (PhD diss., University of Witwatersrand, 2006), 73. See also Charles Dugmore, “From the ‘Devil’s Dorp’ to ‘Fair Dorp’: The Transformation of Krugersdorp from a Transient Mining Boomtown into a Stable Settler Town, 1887 to 1905,” South African Historical Journal 62, no. 2 (2010): 338–55.
3. Michael Patrick Proctor, “Local and Central State Control of Black Settlement in Munsieville, Krugersdorp,” GeoJournal 12, no. 2 (March 1, 1986): 167–72.
4. Jaco Human, “[WATCH] Peaceful Service Delivery March down the Streets of Krugersdorp,” Krugersdorp News, January 25, 2019, sec. Municipal, https://krugersdorpnews.co.za/372258/watch-peaceful-service-delivery-march-down-the-streets-of-krugersdorp/.
5. As measured by numbers of votes cast. See R. W. Johnson and Lawrence Schlemmer, Launching Democracy in South Africa: The First Open Election, April 1994 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1996). For 1989, 2,167,923 million White votes, 261,047 Coloured votes, and 154,524 Indian votes. See “1989 House of Delegates Election,” African Elections Database, 2004, http://africanelections.tripod.com/za.html#1989_House_of_Delegates_Election.
6. Madhav Joshi, “Post–Civil War Democratization: Promotion of Democracy in Post–Civil War States, 1946–2005,” Democratization 17, no. 5 (October 1, 2010): 826–55; Laura E. Armey and Robert M. McNab, “Democratization and Civil War,” Applied Economics 47, no. 18 (April 15, 2015): 1863–82.
7. This famous definition of “politics” is from Harold D. Lasswell, Politics: Who Gets What, When, How (Auckland: Pickle Partners Publishing, 2018).
8. Mark Gevisser, “ ‘State Capture’: The Corruption Investigation That Has Shaken South Africa,” Guardian, July 11, 2019, http://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/jul/11/state-capture-corruption-investigation-that-has-shaken-south-africa.
9. On income inequality, see Risenga Maluleke, “Inequality Trends in South Africa: A Multidimensional Diagnostic of Inequality” (Statistics South Africa, 2019); on land, see Ariel Levy, “Who Owns South Africa?” New Yorker, May 6, 2019, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/05/13/who-owns-south-africa.
10. Also known as the Vryheidsfront Plus (VF+) in Afrikaans, the language of most of their leaders and supporters.
11. Data from SA_Census_2011. Not all who speak Afrikaans would necessarily identify as Afrikaners, and certainly not all support the FF+.
12. Nkhaba Jantjie Xaba, “A Comparative Study of Afrikaner Economic Empowerment and Black Economic Empowerment: A Case Study of a Former South African Parastatal in Vanderbijlpark” (PhD diss., Stellenbosch University, 2020).
13. “Stop Eating Alone, Julius Malema Tells Sandton ‘Elite,’ ” BusinessLIVE, May 1, 2019, https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/politics/2019-05-01-stop-eating-alone-julius-malema-tells-sandton-elite/.
14. Hugh Murray, “The Privatisation of Cyril Ramaphosa,” Leadership, July 1997, 23.
15. Ryan Lenora Brown, “One Year after South Africa’s Marikana Massacre: Why, What, and How,” Christian Science Monitor, August 15, 2013, https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2013/0815/One-year-after-South-Africa-s-Marikana-massacre-why-what-and-how. See also G. Farlam, P. D. Hemraj, and B. R. Tokota, “Marikana Commission of Inquiry: Report on Matters of Public, National and International Concern Arising out of the Tragic Incidents at the Lonmin Mine in Marikana, in the North West Province,” March 31, 2015, https://www.sahistory.org.za/archive/marikana-commission-inquiry-report-matters-public-national-and-international-concern; Peter Alexander, “Marikana, Turning Point in South African History,” Review of African Political Economy 40, no. 138 (December 1, 2013): 605–19.
16. Clement Manyathela, “Ramaphosa Apologises to Tutu for ANC Leadership under Zuma,” Eyewitness News, June 1, 2018, https://ewn.co.za/2018/06/01/ramaphosa-apologises-to-tutu-for-anc-leadership-under-zuma.
17. Carol Paton, “ANC and DA Both in Trouble According to New Poll,” BusinessLIVE, April 30, 2019, https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/politics/2019-04-30-anc-and-da-both-in-trouble-according-to-new-poll/.
18. Natasha Marrian, “IRR Poll Shows National Loss for the ANC,” Mail & Guardian, April 30, 2019, https://mg.co.za/article/2019-04-30-irr-poll-shows-national-loss-for-the-anc/.
19. Mangosuthu Buthelezi, “Closing Rally of the Inkatha Freedom Party Ahead of the 2019 National and Provincial Elections,” Inkatha Freedom Party, May 5, 2019, https://www.ifp.org.za/closing-rally-of-the-inkatha-freedom-party-ahead-of-the-2019-national-and-provincial-elections/.
20. “2019-Verkiesingsmanifes,” https://vfplus.org.za/verkiesingsmanifes-2019.
Chapter 2
1. Thanks to Professor Susan Hyde. I looked at “Election Observation Handbook: Sixth Edition,” OSCE, June 11, 2020, accessed March 10, 2020, https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/68439.
2. “Visit Mogales Marvels This Heritage Month,” Mogale City Local Municipality, August 28, 2009, http://www.mogalecity.gov.za/news/100-news-2009/august/161-visit-mogales-marvels-this-heritage-month.
3. Dugmore, “The Making of Krugersdorp,” 187.
4. Archon Fung and Jane Mansbridge, “Election Day Holiday: Vote, Celebrate and Make Democracy Work Better,” USA Today, October 26, 2018, https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/10/26/election-day-holiday-vote-party-celebrate-democracy-column/1722608002/.
5. “Coronation Park Krugersdorp,” Heritage Portal, accessed March 10, 2020, http://www.theheritageportal.co.za/thread/coronation-park-krugersdorp.
6. Jonathan Hyslop, “Problems of Explanation in the Study of Afrikaner Nationalism: A Case Study of the West Rand,” Journal of Southern African Studies 22, no. 3 (1996): 373–85.
7. John Allen, Rabble-Rouser for Peace: The Authorized Biography of Desmond Tutu (New York: Free Press, 2006); Siviwe Breakfast, “Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu: Who Is He and What Are Some of His Best Quotes?” The South African (blog), May 7, 2018, https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news/archbishop-emeritus-desmond-tutu-best-quotes/; “The Munsieville Disturbances: Native Commissioner Addressed Meeting,” Standard and West Rand Review, November 4, 1949.
8. Allen, Rabble-Rouser for Peace, 61; “Founder’s Journey,” Desmond & Leah Tutu Legacy Foundation, https://www.tutu.org.za/founders-journey/.
9. SA_Census_2011, accessed via wazimap.co.za.
10. Siyabulela Christopher Fobosi, “South Africa’s Minibus Taxi Industry Has Been Marginalised for Too Long. This Must Change,” The Conversation (blog), July 14, 2020, https://theconversation.com/south-africas-minibus-taxi-industry-has-been-marginalised-for-too-long-this-must-change-142060.
11. Steven Friedman, “Reflections on the Freedom Charter by Mandla Seleoane and Ben Mokoena (Review),” Transformation: Critical Perspectives on Southern Africa 92, no. 1 (2016), 170.
12. Author analysis of GCRO_2017.
13. Janetta Du Plooy, “The West Rand during the Anglo-Boer War,” EGGSA branch of the Genealogical Society of South Africa, October 3, 2015, https://www.eggsa.org/index.php/en/contents/articles/36-the-west-rand-during-the-anglo-boer-war.
14. General elections (national and provincial) are held only every five years, but local elections are held off-cycle two years later, also every five years.
15. Daniel de Kadt and Evan S. Lieberman, “Nuanced Accountability: Voter Responses to Service Delivery in Southern Africa,” British Journal of Political Science 50, no. 1 (January 2020): 185–215.
Chapter 3
1. See, e.g., Sydney Majoko, “Perhaps SA Needs a Benevolent Dictator Right Now,” The Citizen, July 2, 2019, https://citizen.co.za/news/opinion/opinion-columns/2149263/perhaps-sa-needs-a-benevolent-dictator-right-now/; “Why We Need a Benevolent Dictator to Make SA a Truly Great Country,” TimesLIVE, May 26, 2019, https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/opinion-and-analysis/2019-05-26-why-we-need-a-benevolent-dictator-to-make-sa-a-truly-great-country/.
2. Robert Mattes and Michael Bratton, “Do Africans Still Want Democracy?” Afrobarometer Working Series, no. 36 (November 2016).
3. Author analysis of SASAS_2016.
4. Dominique Dryding, “Are South Africans Giving Up on Democracy?” Afrobarometer Dispatch (Afrobarometer, July 14, 2020), https://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/publications/Dépêches/ab_r7_dispatchno372_are_south_africans_giving_up_on_democracy.pdf. Author analysis of Afrob_2018.
5. Author analysis of HMS_2019.
6. For a powerful account of the surprising nostalgia many Black South Africans maintain for their lives during the period under Apartheid government, see Jacob Dlamini, Native Nostalgia (Auckland Park: Jacana Media, 2009), 6. He highlights the various ways in which people derived pleasure in their lives, including through everyday acts of resistance. However, as he describes, fond memories do not imply support for Apartheid.
7. Larry Diamond and Marc F. Plattner, Democracy in Decline? A Journal of Democracy Book (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2015).
8. Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, How Democracies Die (New York: Crown, 2018); John Sides, Michael Tesler, and Lynn Vavreck, Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2019).
9. Yascha Mounk, The People vs. Democracy: Why Our Freedom Is in Danger and How to Save It (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2018).
10. Dani Rodrik, “Populism and the Economics of Globalization,” Journal of International Business Policy 1, no. 1–2 (2018): 12–33; J. Lawrence Broz, Jeffry Frieden, and Stephen Weymouth, “Populism in Place: The Economic Geography of the Globalization Backlash,” SSRN Scholarly Paper (Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network, September 1, 2019), https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3501263; Noam Gidron and Peter A. Hall, “Populism as a Problem of Social Integration,” Comparative Political Studies 53, no. 7 (2020): 1027–59.
11. Daron Acemoglu et al., “Democracy Does Cause Growth,” Journal of Political Economy 127, no. 1 (February 1, 2019): 47–100; John Gerring et al., “Democracy and Economic Growth: A Historical Perspective,” World Politics 57, no. 3 (2005): 323–64.
12. Adam Przeworski et al., Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Material Well-Being in the World, 1950–1990 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000); Michael Ross, “Is Democracy Good for the Poor?” American Journal of Political Science 50, no. 4 (2006): 860–74; John Gerring, Strom C. Thacker, and Rodrigo Alfaro, “Democracy and Human Development,” Journal of Politics 74, no. 1 (2011): 1–17.
13. John Gerring, Case Study Research: Principles and Practices (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007).
14. Margot Miflin, “Obama at Occidental,” New Yorker, October 3, 2012, https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/obama-at-occidental.
15. George M. Fredrickson, White Supremacy: A Comparative Study in American and South African History (New York: Oxford University Press, 1982).
16. Xolela Mangcu, The Arrogance of Power: South Africa’s Leadership Meltdown (Cape Town: Tafelberg, 2014).
17. Xolela Mangcu, To the Brink: The State of Democracy in South Africa (Scottsville, South Africa: University of KwaZulu-Natal Press, 2008). See also Xolela Mangcu, “The Victorian Roots of the Current ANC Leadership Crisis,” Interventions 18, no. 6 (November 1, 2016): 786–99.
18. Alex Boraine, What’s Gone Wrong? South Africa on the Brink of Failed Statehood (New York: New York University Press, 2014), 91.
19. Anton Harber, Diepsloot (Johannesburg: Jonathan Ball, 2011).
20. Nic Cheeseman, Democracy in Africa: Successes, Failures, and the Struggle for Political Reform, New Approaches to African History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015).
21. Dambisa Moyo, Edge of Chaos: Why Democracy Is Failing to Deliver Economic Growth—and How to Fix It (New York: Basic Books, 2018).
22. R. W. Johnson, How Long Will South Africa Survive? 2nd ed. (Jeppestown: Jonathan Ball, 2017).
23. There have been many laudatory accounts of South Africa’s political development, but these predominated more during the early years of the democratic era. One more recent, optimistic account is from a former U.S. Foreign Service officer and Council on Foreign Relations Fellow: John Campbell, Morning in South Africa (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2016).
24. Hans Rosling, Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong about the World—and Why Things Are Better than You Think (New York: Flatiron Books, 2018).
25. See discussion of Prospect Theory by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in Paul Rozin and Edward B. Royzman, “Negativity Bias, Negativity Dominance, and Contagion,” Personality and Social Psychology Review 5, no. 4 (November 1, 2001): 296–320.
26. Timur Kuran, “Now out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989,” World Politics 44, no. 1 (1991): 7–48.
27. Larry Diamond, “Three Paradoxes of Democracy,” Journal of Democracy 1, no. 3 (1990): 48–60.
28. Robert A. Dahl, Democracy and Its Critics (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1989), 52.
29. Author analyses of SA_CommSurv_2016 and IEC_2019 (2016 election data).
30. I am grateful to Will Kymlicka for raising this important point; and to Paige Bollen and Blair Read for many (in fact, several years of) thoughtful discussions and reflections about what dignity is and how to study it. See also Michael Rosen, Dignity: Its History and Meaning (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2012).
31. Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty (New York: Crown Business, 2012).
32. See, e.g., Martha Nussbaum, “Capabilities as Fundamental Entitlements: Sen and Social Justice,” Feminist Economics 9, no. 2–3 (2003): 33–59; Jeni Klugman, Francisco Rodríguez, and Hyung-Jin Choi, “The HDI 2010: New Controversies, Old Critiques,” Journal of Economic Inequality 9, no. 2 (2011): 249–88; Amartya Sen, “Democracy as a Universal Value,” Journal of Democracy 10, no. 3 (1999): 3–17.
33. Sen, “Democracy as a Universal Value.”
34. See David Collier and Steven Levitsky, “Democracy with Adjectives: Conceptual Innovation in Comparative Research,” World Politics 49, no. 3 (1997): 430–51.
Chapter 4
1. Evan S. Lieberman, ed., Beyond a Political Solution to Apartheid: Economic and Social Policy Proposals for a Postapartheid South Africa (Princeton: Center of International Studies, Princeton University, 1993).
2. Donald Easum, “From Princeton to Pretoria,” International Educator, Spring 1992.
3. Saul Dubow, “Smuts, the United Nations and the Rhetoric of Race and Rights,” Journal of Contemporary History 43, no. 1 (January 1, 2008): 45.
4. Specifically, I am referring here to the conquests of Mzilikazi—the warrior who conquered much of the region during the period known as the Mfecane but was subsequently vanquished by a group of Voortrekkers that included Paul Kruger as a child. See Peter Becker, Path of Blood: The Rise and Conquests of Mzilikazi, Founder of the Matabele (London: Panther, 1966). Note that an important source of politically motivated intellectual debate in South Africa concerned the timing of the arrival of various groups to the Witwatersrand area, with many White authors propagating the “empty land” notion—that when the Whites arrived, the area was largely unpopulated and the timing of the arrival of White and Black was approximately the same. This myth has long been debunked; one leading scholar details compelling evidence that the Tswana resided in the area for several centuries prior to the arrival of White settlers. See Fred Morton, “Settlements, Landscapes and Identities among the Tswana of the Western Transvaal and Eastern Kalahari before 1820,” South African Archaeological Bulletin 68, no. 197 (2013): 15–26.
5. Also known as the Republic of South Africa, but I use the term “Transvaal Republic” to avoid confusion with the future Union of South Africa and Republic of South Africa, which I describe as “modern” South Africa.
6. The Memoirs of Paul Kruger (1902; New York, 1969), n41, as cited in Fredrickson, White Supremacy, 193.
7. Donald Denoon, Southern Africa since 1800 (New York: Praeger, 1973), 74; Daphne Trevor, “South African Native Taxation,” Review of Economic Studies 3, no. 3 (1936): 217–25. The practice of forced labor in the region had been going on for decades prior to the rise of the mining industry. See Norman Etherington, Patrick Harries, and Bernard Mbenga, “From Colonial Hegemonies to Imperial Conquest, 1840–1880,” in The Cambridge History of South Africa, vol. 1: From Early Times to 1885, ed. Bernard K. Mbenga, Carolyn Hamilton, and Robert Ross, vol. 1, Cambridge History of South Africa (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009), 352–55.
8. Leonard Thompson, A History of South Africa (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1990), 112, 121.
9. Du Plooy, “The West Rand during the Anglo-Boer War.”
10. Dugmore, “The Making of Krugersdorp,” 106–9.
11. Ibid., 342.
12. Tembeka Ngcukaitobi, The Land Is Ours: South Africa’s First Black Lawyers and the Birth of Constitutionalism (Cape Town: Penguin, 2018), 232.
13. Thompson, A History of South Africa, 144–45.
14. Proctor, “Local and Central State Control of Black Settlement in Munsieville, Krugersdorp,” 167–68.
15. Ellen Hellmann, Handbook on Race Relations in South Africa (Cape Town: Oxford University Press for the South African Institute of Race Relations, 1949), 9. This percentage was calculated on the basis of the 1904 and 1911 censuses. For a population estimated at 5.97 million in 1911, the population shares were listed as “European”: 21.4%; “Native”: 67.3%; “Coloured”: 8.8%; and “Asiatic”: 2.4%.
16. Heinz Klug, Constituting Democracy: Law, Globalism, and South Africa’s Political Reconstruction (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000), 38–39.
17. According to the Native Urban Areas Act of 1923. Robert Cameron, The Democratisation of South African Local Government: A Tale of Three Cities (Pretoria: JL van Schaik, 1999).
18. The 1926 Mines and Works Amendment Act.
19. Hellmann, Handbook on Race Relations in South Africa, 115, 128.
20. Hermann Buhr Giliomee and Bernard Mbenga, New History of South Africa (Cape Town: Tafelberg, 2007), 279–80.
21. Vusumuzi Khumalo, “Kagiso Historical Research Report” (Mogale City Local Municipality Commissioned Report, 2016), 7. As just one example, in 1977, African teachers earned only 58% of the salaries paid to Whites with the same qualifications.
22. Brian Rose, “Bantu Education as a Facet of South African Policy,” Comparative Education Review 9 (1965): 209.
23. Ibid., 210.
24. Khumalo, “Kagiso Historical Research Report,” 6–8.
25. Ibid., 4.
26. Evan S. Lieberman, Race and Regionalism in the Politics of Taxation in Brazil and South Africa (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003).
27. Author analysis of WDI.
28. “Krugerrands,” Investopedia (blog), https://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/krugerrand-gold-coin.asp.
29. Thompson, A History of South Africa, 191.
30. P. H. Tebbutt and T. K. Gura, Commission of Inquiry into the Incidents That Led to the Violence in the Former Bophuthatswana on 11 March 1994, and the Deaths That Occurred as a Result Thereof: Report (Johannesburg: Thorold’s Africana Books, 1998), 351.
31. Martin Abel, “Long-Run Effects of Forced Resettlement: Evidence from Apartheid South Africa,” Journal of Economic History 79, no. 4 (December 2019): 915.
32. Tebbutt and Gura, Commission of Inquiry into the Incidents That Led to the Violence in the Former Bophuthatswana.
33. Donald Horowitz, A Democratic South Africa? Constitutional Engineering in a Divided Society (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991), 43, 88.
34. Sol T. (Solomon Tshekisho) Plaatje, Native Life in South Africa (Whitefish, MT: Kessinger, 2000), chap. 10.
35. Sol T. Plaatje, Mhudi, Kindle (Long Grove, IL: Waveland Press, 2013), pt. 127.
36. Anthony W. Marx, Making Race and Nation: A Comparison of South Africa, the United States, and Brazil, Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997).
37. Plaatje, Native Life in South Africa, 107, 21.
38. Originally, the South African Native College.
39. “History of University of Fort Hare,” University of Fort Hare, https://www.ufh.ac.za/About/Pages/History.aspx.
40. John Jabavu’s biography reveals a controversial history, in which he sometimes sided with White financiers of his newspaper over Black interests. However, Jabavu also helped lead the campaign to found Fort Hare. See Mcebisi Ndletyana, “John Tengo Jabavu: A Conflicted Figure,” Journalist, August 26, 2014, https://www.thejournalist.org.za/pioneers/john-tengo-jabavu-conflicted-figure/.
41. She founded the African Women’s Self-Improvement Association in 1927 in Alice, present-day Eastern Cape, which collaborated with similar organizations to teach women in rural areas various skills, including farming, cooking, sewing, and basic health care. See Catherine Higgs, “Zenzele: African Women’s Self-Help Organizations in South Africa, 1927–1998,” African Studies Review 47, no. 3 (2004): 119–41; Catherine Higgs, “Helping Ourselves: Black Women and Grassroots Activism in Segregated South Africa, 1922–1952,” in Stepping Forward: Black Women in Africa and the Americas, ed. Catherine Higgs, Barbara A. Moss, and Earline Rae Ferguson (Athens: Ohio University Press, 2002), 59–72.
42. Ngcukaitobi, The Land Is Ours, 215.
43. Nelson Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom: The Autobiography of Nelson Mandela (Boston: Back Bay Books, 1995).
44. Hellmann, Handbook on Race Relations in South Africa, 372–73.
45. “Remarkable Woman and Freedom Fighter,” SowetanLIVE, October 31, 2008, https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/2008-10-31-remarkable-woman-and-freedom-fighter/; Mangosuthu Buthelezi, “Many Owe Their Freedom to Fort Hare: Buthelezi,” Sunday Times, February 7, 2016, https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/opinion-and-analysis/2016-02-07-many-owe-their-freedom-to-fort-hare-buthelezi/.
46. “Notable Alumni,” University of Fort Hare, accessed May 8, 2020, https://www.ufh.ac.za/international/notable-alumni.html.
47. Gilbert Marcus, The Freedom Charter: A Blueprint for a Democratic South Africa, Occasional Papers (University of the Witwatersrand, Centre for Applied Legal Studies), 9 (Johannesburg: Centre for Applied Legal Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, 1985), 3.
48. See ibid.
49. Raymond Suttner, “Understanding Non-Racialism as an Emancipatory Concept in South Africa,” Theoria: A Journal of Social and Political Theory 59, no. 130 (2012): 25.
50. Thompson, A History of South Africa, 209.
51. Friedman, “Reflections on the Freedom Charter by Mandla Seleoane and Ben Mokoena (Review),” 170.
52. “Sharpeville Massacre, 21 March 1960,” South African History Online, https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/sharpeville-massacre-21-march-1960.
53. In particular, see Simon Stevens, “The Turn to Sabotage by the Congress Movement in South Africa,” Past & Present 245, no. 1 (November 1, 2019): 221–55; Paul S. Landau, “The ANC, MK, and ‘The Turn to Violence’ (1960–1962),” South African Historical Journal 64, no. 3 (September 2012): 538–63; Stephen Ellis, “The Genesis of the ANC’s Armed Struggle in South Africa, 1948–1961,” Journal of Southern African Studies 37, no. 4 (December 2011): 657–76.
54. Landau, “The ANC, MK, and ‘The Turn to Violence.’ ” The Durban attack actually took place on December 15, but all three were coordinated together.
55. Joe Slovo, “The Sabotage Campaign,” Dawn Souvenir (1986): 24, as cited in Stevens, “The Turn to Sabotage,” n66.
56. While officially an “independent organization,” Congress leaders had long referred to themselves as “Umbutho we Sizwe” so the association between the two was clear (Landau, “The ANC, MK, and ‘The Turn to Violence’ ”). MK, “Manifesto of Umkhonto we Sizwe” (Command of Umkhonto we Sizwe, December 16, 1961), O’Malley Archives, https://omalley.nelsonmandela.org/omalley/index.php/site/q/03lv02424/04lv02730/05lv02918/06lv02950.htm.
57. Stevens, “The Turn to Sabotage,” 240–41.
58. Thabile Mange, “Munsieville Four to Be Given Proper Reburial,” The Star, May 3, 2017.
59. Don Makatile, “Munsieville Four Reburied as Heroes,” Sunday Independent, April 15, 2019, https://www.iol.co.za/sundayindependent/munsieville-four-reburied-as-heroes-21382173.
60. Maluti Obuseng, “Remains of Four Hanged PAC Activists to Be Exhumed,” SABC News, http://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/remains-of-four-hanged-pac-activists-to-be-exhumed/.
61. Stevens, “The Turn to Sabotage,” 250–51.
62. J. D. Omer-Cooper, History of Southern Africa, 2nd ed. (Portsmouth, NH: Heinemann, 1994), 218.
63. Shireen Hassim, “A Life of Refusal: Winnie Madikizela-Mandela and Violence in South Africa,” Storia Delle Donne 10 (2014): 57.
64. This account is drawn from Steven Friedman, “The Sounds of Silence: Structural Change and Collective Action in the Fight against Apartheid,” South African Historical Journal 69, no. 2 (April 3, 2017): 236–50.
65. The details of his use of tear gas and firearms are from an interview for a 1998 documentary. Sifiso Mxolisi Ndlovu, “The Soweto Uprising—Part 1: Soweto,” in The Road to Democracy in South Africa, vol. 2: (1970–1980) (Pretoria: Unisa Press, 2007), 343.
66. Ibid.
67. Noor Nieftagodien, “The Soweto Uprising—Part 2: Alexandra,” in The Road to Democracy in South Africa, 2:355.
68. This total included members of all four primary population groups: 494 Black, 75 Coloured, 1 Indian, and 5 White victims. Republic of South Africa, ed., Report of the Commission of Inquiry into the Riots at Soweto and Elsewhere from the 16th of June 1976 to the 28th of February 1977, vol. 1 (Pretoria: Govt. Printer, 1980), 520. Actual numbers were likely higher.
69. The commission attributes 451 (78.4%) deaths to police action. Ibid., 1:520.
70. David Goodman, Fault Lines: Journeys into the New South Africa, Perspectives on Southern Africa (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2002), as excerpted from the New York Times, https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/books/first/g/goodman-fault.html.
71. Frank Chikane, No Life of My Own: An Autobiography (Maryknoll, NY: Orbis Books, 1989), 67–69, 73–74.
72. Ineke van Kessel, Beyond Our Wildest Dreams: The United Democratic Front and the Transformation of South Africa, Reconsiderations in Southern African History (Charlottesville: University Press of Virginia, 2000), 220.
73. Johnson and Schlemmer, Launching Democracy in South Africa, 220–28.
74. Bathabile Msomi, “Swaneville Massacre Not in SA History Books,” Krugersdorp News, February 9, 2017, sec. Local News, https://krugersdorpnews.co.za/318467/swaneville-massacre-not-in-sa-history-books/.
75. SAPA, “PAC Accuses ANC of Attacking Its Supporters,” Argus, January 7, 1991; see also Daily Vox Team, “Violence in the Service of Power: ANC Attacks on Azapo and the PAC in the 1980s and 1990s,” Daily Vox (blog), May 30, 2019, https://www.thedailyvox.co.za/violence-in-the-service-of-power-anc-attacks-on-azapo-and-the-pac-in-the-1980s-and-1990s/.
76. See Jeremy Seekings, The UDF: A History of the United Democratic Front in South Africa, 1983–1991 (Cape Town: David Philip, 2000). The UDF and related organizations were particularly strong in the area around Krugersdorp in the 1980s. See van Kessel, Beyond Our Wildest Dreams. On the role of organized labor, see Glenn Adler and Eddie Webster, “Challenging Transition Theory: The Labor Movement, Radical Reform, and Transition to Democracy in South Africa,” Politics and Society 23, no. 1 (1995): 75–106; and Gay Seidman, Manufacturing Militance: Workers’ Movements in Brazil and South Africa, 1970–85 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1995).
77. In 1993, the Gini index (measure of inequality) was 59.3 for South Africa and 60.1 for Brazil, virtually tied for most unequal countries on the planet. From World Bank Data Portal, accessed July 25, 2021, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=ZA-BR&most_recent_value_desc=true.
78. “Cinema to Stay ‘Whites Only,’ ” Krugersdorp News, February 7, 1986.
79. Shenda Hartley, “No to All-Race Library,” Krugersdorp News, May 16, 1986.
80. Shenda Hartley, “Local Cinemas to Close?” Krugersdorp News, June 13, 1986.
81. Cliff Buchler, “Clem Sunter Tells Rapportryers of ‘Two Options Future,’ ” Krugersdorp News, July 15, 1988.
82. Laura Warr, “Terre’blanche Talks Tough,” Krugersdorp News, November 7, 1986.
83. Phillip Van Niekerk, “White Vigilantes Take to Streets,” New Statesman, April 8, 1986.
84. Ibid.
85. Carol Marsh, “No to Open CBD,” Krugersdorp News, February 9, 1990.
86. Carol Marsh, “Clinic for Whites Only,” Krugersdorp News, February 23, 1990.
87. “South Africa: Amnesty Denied to AWB Killers,” Panafrican News Agency, March 1, 1999, https://allafrica-com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/stories/199903010098.html.
88. “Letters,” Krugersdorp News, July 24, 1987.
89. Adriaan de Beer, “Mayor Quits, Derby-Lewis Is Ready,” Krugersdorp News, February 26, 1993.
90. Adriaan de Beer, “A Plot against Derby-Lewis,” Krugersdorp News, April 30, 1993, 1.
91. Danie Toerien, “Gaye Speaks Out,” Krugersdorp News, October 29, 1993, 1.
92. Christian Davies, “Hero’s Welcome in Poland Awaits Hitman Who Killed Mandela’s Ally,” Guardian, November 11, 2018, sec. World News, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/11/heros-welcome-janusz-walus-Apartheid-hitman-chris-hani-poland.
93. Michael Clough, “Setting Aside Fears; Africa Finds Reasons to Hope for Democracy’s Future,” New York Times, March 22, 1992, https://www.nytimes.com/1992/03/22/weekinreview/the-world-setting-aside-fears-africa-finds-reasons-to-hope-for.html.
94. Richard Holbrooke, To End a War: The Conflict in Yugoslavia—America’s Inside Story—Negotiating with Milosevic (New York: Modern Library, 2011), xv.
95. Estimates vary, but most accounts typically state 800,000. See, e.g., “Rwanda Genocide: 100 Days of Slaughter,” BBC News, April 4, 2019, sec. Africa, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26875506.
96. CNN Editorial Research, “Los Angeles Riots Fast Facts,” CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2013/09/18/us/los-angeles-riots-fast-facts/index.html.
97. Sebastian Mallaby, After Apartheid: The Future of South Africa (New York: Times Books, 1993), 249.
98. Author analysis of HSRC_1994.
Chapter 5
1. Michael Parks, “S. Africa Will Bar Meetings of Whites and Apartheid Foes, Botha Says,” Los Angeles Times, August 14, 1987, https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1987-08-14-mn-813-story.html.
2. Hermann Buhr Giliomee, Lawrence Schlemmer, and Sarita Hauptfleisch, The Bold Experiment: South Africa’s New Democracy (Cape Town: Southern Book Publishers, 1994).
3. Bennetta Jules-Rosette and David B. Coplan, “ ‘Nkosi Sikelel’ iAfrika’: From Independent Spirit to Political Mobilization,” Cahiers d’études africaines 44, no. 173–74 (January 1, 2004): 343–67. Sol Plaatje arranged to have the song recorded in London in 1923.
4. Author analysis of HMS_2019. The survey was conducted only among those 40 and over.
5. This is in line with estimates of national turnout of approximately 87%. Independent Electoral Commission South Africa, “1994 National and Provincial Elections” (Pretoria: Independent Electoral Commission South Africa), https://www.elections.org.za/content/uploadedfiles/NPE%201994.pdf.
6. Khabele Matlosa, “Evolution of Electoral Governance in South Africa: Prelude to the Post-Apartheid Era,” in Institutionalising Democracy: The Story of the Electoral Commission of South Africa: 1993–2014, ed. Ndletyana Mcebisi (Pretoria: Africa Institute of South Africa, 2015), 10–25.
7. Brown Bavusile Maaba, “Free at Last!” in Institutionalising Democracy: The Story of the Electoral Commission of South Africa: 1993–2014, ed. Ndletyana Mcebisi (Pretoria: Africa Institute of South Africa, 2015), 102–21.
8. Bill Keller, “Zulu Party Ends Boycott of Vote in South Africa,” New York Times, April 20, 1994, https://www.nytimes.com/1994/04/20/world/zulu-party-ends-boycott-of-vote-in-south-africa.html.
9. Author analysis of HSRC_1994.
10. The parties and photos listed on the provincial ballots would vary by province given the different parties competing at that level.
11. Loganathan “Logie” Naidoo was an ANC leader I interviewed outside Durban in June 2016.
12. Johnson and Schlemmer, Launching Democracy in South Africa, 323.
13. Ibid., 348.
14. Independent Electoral Commission South Africa, “1994 National and Provincial Elections.”
15. Sean Jacobs, “Making Sense of the ‘Coloured’ Vote in Post-Apartheid South Africa: Comparing the 1994 and 1999 Provincial Results in the Western Cape,” Journal of African Elections 1, no. 1 (2001): 23–26.
16. Tom Lodge, “The South African General Election, April 1994: Results, Analysis and Implications,” African Affairs 94, no. 377 (1995): 471–500. Voting data from Johnson and Schlemmer, Launching Democracy in South Africa, 389.
17. “The Union of South Africa 1910,” South African History Online, https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/union-south-africa-1910.
18. “Nelson Mandela’s Inauguration Speech as President of SA (May 10, 1994),” South African Government News Agency, May 10, 2018, https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/read-nelson-mandelas-inauguration-speech-president-sa.
19. For example, U.S. Supreme Court justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Sonia Sotomayor have both publicly extolled the constitution as a model for other countries. See “Constitutional Law across Borders: At the Launch of NYU Law’s New Guarini Institute for Global Legal Studies, Justice Sonia Sotomayor Talks with Former South African Constitutional Court Justice Albie Sachs,” NYU School of Law, https://www.law.nyu.edu/news/Sonia-Sotomayor-Albie-Sachs-Guarini-Institute-for-Global-Legal-Studies-Supreme-Court-precedent.
20. Ngcukaitobi, The Land Is Ours, 3.
21. As cited in ibid., 4.
22. United Nations, “1941: The Atlantic Charter,” August 25, 2015, https://www.un.org/en/sections/history-united-nations-charter/1941-atlantic-charter/index.html.
23. See, for example, Carolyn Logan, “Selected Chiefs, Elected Councillors and Hybrid Democrats: Popular Perspectives on the Co-existence of Democracy and Traditional Authority,” Journal of Modern African Studies 47, no. 1 (2009): 101–28.
24. Cameron, The Democratisation of South African Local Government, 83.
25. The latter group are also connected through approximately 50 “district council” governments, which allow for some service and administration sharing.
26. “Meet the Man behind the Mayoral Chain,” Krugersdorp News, April 28, 1995.
27. Gill Gifford, “Peaceful Voting,” West Rander, May 6, 1994.
28. Author analysis of HMS_2019. Some individuals responded to the question with reference to the period just prior to 1994, thinking about the transition in terms of the time before Mandela’s election. I do not consider those responses here.
29. Shenan Cochrane, The History of Muldersdrift, 1850–2015 (Muldersdrift: Shenan Cochrane, 2016), 3.
30. Adriaan de Beer, “This Is What You Pay: Councillors in the Local Transitional Council Get Paid Handsomely to Do Their Job, or Not To,” Krugersdorp News, January 20, 1995.
31. Jane Flanagan, “Why White South Africans Are Coming Home,” BBC News, May 3, 2014, sec. Africa, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-27252307.
32. Lieze Eloff, “Volkstaat Uproar,” Krugersdorp News, June 2, 1995.
33. “Meet the Man behind the Mayoral Chain.”
34. “TLC Is Not Too Bad,” Krugersdorp News, July 21, 1995.
35. See Vincent Carruthers, The Magaliesberg, 2nd ed. (Pretoria: Protea Boekhuis, 2012); Becker, Path of Blood.
36. Appendix in Johnson and Schlemmer, Launching Democracy in South Africa, 389. The ANC with 81,232 of a total of 130,916 votes cast, less 1,298 spoiled ballots.
37. “How Are You Being Represented?” Krugersdorp News, July 1, 2011.
38. Allister Haddon Sparks, Beyond the Miracle: Inside the New South Africa (London: Profile Books, 2003).
39. Price’s work shaped much of my thinking about South Africa. See Robert Price, “Race and Reconciliation in the New South Africa,” Politics & Society 25, no. 2 (1997): 149–78; Robert M. Price, The Apartheid State in Crisis: Political Transformation in South Africa, 1975–1990 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991).
40. For an overview of public opinion during this period, see Hermann Thiel and Robert B. Mattes, “Consolidation and Public Opinion in South Africa,” Journal of Democracy 9, no. 1 (January 1, 1998): 95–96.
41. On “charisma,” see Max Weber, “The Nature of Charismatic Authority and Its Routinization,” in Theory of Social and Economic Organization, trans. A. R. Anderson and Talcott Parsons (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1922). With respect to Mandela, see Evan Lieberman, “How Nelson Mandela Pulled His Punches and Helped Transform South Africa,” Washington Post, December 7, 2013, sec. Monkey Cage, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2013/12/07/how-nelson-mandela-pulled-his-punches-and-helped-transform-south-africa/.
Chapter 6
1. The proceedings were published in Hermann Giliomee and Charles Simkins, The Awkward Embrace: One-Party Domination and Democracy (Amsterdam: Taylor & Francis, 1999).
2. M. Ndletyana, Anatomy of the ANC in Power: Insights from Port Elizabeth, 1990–2019 (Cape Town: HSRC Press, 2020); Stephan Hofstatter, Licence to Loot (New York: Penguin, 2018); Crispian Olver, How to Steal a City: The Battle for Nelson Mandela Bay, an Inside Account (Johannesburg: Jonathan Ball, 2017).
3. See Pieter du Toit and Kyle Cowan, “Ex-SARS Exec to ‘Rogue Unit’ Journalist: ‘My Life Is Destroyed,’ ” News24, September 20, 2018, https://www.news24.com/news24/SouthAfrica/News/ex-sars-exec-to-rogue-unit-journalist-my-life-is-destroyed-20180920; Horisani Sithole, “Sunday Times Apologises over False Reporting on Rogue Unit,” SABC News, October 14, 2018, sec. South Africa, https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/be-sunday-times-apologises-over-false-reporting-on-rogue-unit/.
4. Author analysis of Afrob_2015.
5. Author analysis of GCRO_2015.
6. Mark Gevisser, A Legacy of Liberation: Thabo Mbeki and the Future of the South African Dream (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2009); Peter Vale and Georgina Barrett, “The Curious Career of an African Modernizer: South Africa’s Thabo Mbeki,” Contemporary Politics 15, no. 4 (December 2009): 445–60.
7. Stanley Uys, “Mbeki: Democrat or Autocrat?” Mail & Guardian, April 30, 1999, https://mg.co.za/article/1999-04-30-mbeki-democrat-or-autocrat/.
8. Jeremy Gordin, Zuma: A Biography (Johannesburg: Jonathan Ball, 2009).
9. Quoted in Karabo Ngoepe, “Zuma: I Never Went to School, but I Educated Myself,” News24, July 22, 2016, https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/i-educated-myself-zuma-tells-pupils-20160722.
10. Gevisser, A Legacy of Liberation.
11. Gordin, Zuma.
12. Claire Ceruti, “African National Congress Change in Leadership: What Really Won It for Zuma?” Review of African Political Economy 35, no. 115 (2008): 107–14.
13. “Mbeki Aids Denial ‘Caused 300,000 Deaths,’ ” Guardian, November 26, 2008, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/26/aids-south-africa.
14. Pride Chigwedere et al., “Estimating the Lost Benefits of Antiretroviral Drug Use in South Africa,” Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes (1999) 49, no. 4 (December 1, 2008): 410–15, for example, estimates 330,000 lives lost just for the period 2000–2005. See also Nicoli Nattrass, Mortal Combat: AIDS Denialism and the Struggle for Antiretrovirals in South Africa (Scottsville, South Africa: University of KwaZulu-Natal Press, 2007).
15. Evan S. Lieberman, Boundaries of Contagion: How Ethnic Politics Have Shaped Government Responses to AIDS (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009).
16. Andrew Feinstein, After the Party: A Personal and Political Journey inside the ANC (Johannesburg: Jonathan Ball, 2010); World Peace Foundation, the Fletcher School, “The South African Arms Deal—Compendium of Arms Trade Corruption,” https://sites.tufts.edu/corruptarmsdeals/the-south-african-arms-deal/.
17. Andrew Feinstein, “Bright Hopes Betrayed,” Guardian, January 10, 2007, http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2007/jan/10/somethingisrotten; Feinstein, After the Party, 188–89.
18. See, e.g., Haroon Bhorat et al., “Betrayal of the Promise: How South Africa Is Being Stolen,” State Capacity Research Project (2017): 1–72.
19. Norimitsu Onishi and Selam Gebrekidan, “In Gupta Brothers’ Rise and Fall, the Tale of a Sullied ANC,” New York Times, December 22, 2018, sec. World, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/22/world/africa/gupta-zuma-south-africa-corruption.html. See also Adriaan Basson and Pieter Du Toit, Enemy of the People: How Jacob Zuma Stole South Africa and How the People Fought Back (Johannesburg: Jonathan Ball, 2017).
20. Karan Mahajan, “How the Gupta Brothers Hijacked South Africa Using Bribes Instead of Bullets,” Vanity Fair, March 3, 2019, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/03/how-the-gupta-brothers-hijacked-south-africa-corruption-bribes; Onishi and Gebrekidan, “In Gupta Brothers’ Rise and Fall.”
21. Neo Goba, “State Capture: Bosasa Boss ‘Told Zuma What to Do,’ ” SowetanLIVE, January 24, 2019, https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/south-africa/2019-01-24-state-capture-bosasa-boss-told-zuma-what-to-do/.
22. Simon Allison, “Nkandla Verdict Shows South Africa’s Democracy Is Alive and Kicking,” Guardian, March 31, 2016, sec. World News, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/31/south-africa-nkandla-verdict-jacob-zuma; Lynsey Chutel, “South Africa’s President Finally Paid Back $540,000 the State Used to Renovate His Private Home,” Quartz Africa, https://qz.com/africa/779758/south-africas-jacob-zuma-has-paid-the-state-for-nkandlas-security-with-a-vbs-bank-loan/.
23. For example, in Minister of Health v. Treatment Action Campaign (TAC) 2002, 5 SA 721, https://www.escr-net.org/caselaw/2006/minister-health-v-treatment-action-campaign-tac-2002-5-sa-721-cc.
24. “Firing Nene Proves Jacob Zuma Is the Dolt behind the Bolt,” Cape Argus, December 12, 2015.
25. Lebogang Seale, “Finance Minister Switch Seen as Another Zuma Clanger,” Mercury, December 15, 2015.
26. Dominic Mahlangu and Penwell Dlamini, “Van Rooyen ‘Bad for ANC in Polls,’ ” TimesLIVE, December 15, 2015, https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2015-12-15-van-rooyen-bad-for-anc-in-polls/.
27. For a discussion of the positive role the business sector played in the South African transition, see Antoinette Handley, Business and the State in Africa (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008).
28. Sean Jacobs and Richard Calland, Thabo Mbeki’s World: The Politics and Ideology of the South African President (London: Zed Books, 2002), 2.
29. Gevisser, A Legacy of Liberation.
30. “South African Arms Deal Not over Yet,” Mail & Guardian (blog), October 1, 2019, https://mg.co.za/article/2019-10-01-south-african-arms-deal-not-over-yet/.
31. These included: “quiet diplomacy” in Zimbabwe given human rights violations; the failure of Black empowerment initiatives to adequately address economic inequality; and slow progress on service delivery. Tutu also implicitly criticized Mbeki’s HIV/AIDS policy by questioning the apparent lack of internal pushback.
32. Desmond Tutu, “Look to the Rock from Which You Were Hewn,” Nelson Mandela Annual Lecture (Johannesburg: Nelson Mandela Foundation, 2004), https://www.nelsonmandela.org/uploads/files/NMF_Lecture_Book_small.pdf. Opposition parties, unsurprisingly, quickly added to these critiques. Christelle Terreblanche, “Opposition Adds to Tutu’s Criticisms of Mbeki,” Independent Online, November 28, 2004, https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/opposition-adds-to-tutus-criticisms-of-mbeki-228090.
33. “ANC: Tutu Not a Liar, Charlatan,” News24, November 29, 2004, https://www.news24.com/News24/ANC-Tutu-not-a-liar-charlatan-20041129; African National Congress, “The Sociology of the Public Discourse in Democratic South Africa,” ANC Today, 2005, https://cisp.cachefly.net/assets/articles/attachments/01576_sociology[1].pdf.
34. Staff reporter, “Neither Mbeki nor Zuma, Says Tutu,” Mail & Guardian, December 14, 2007, https://mg.co.za/article/2007-12-14-neither-mbeki-nor-zuma-says-tutu/.
35. M. Anne Pitcher, Party Politics and Economic Reform in Africa’s Democracies, African Studies 119 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012), 207–8.
36. “ANC Worse than Apartheid Govt: Tutu,” TimesLIVE, October 4, 2011, https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2011-10-04-anc-worse-than-apartheid-govt-tutu/.
37. Allison, “Nkandla Verdict Shows South Africa’s Democracy Is Alive and Kicking.”
38. Jessica Elgot, “Jacob Zuma Breached Constitution over Home Upgrades, South African Court Rules,” Guardian, March 31, 2016, sec. World News, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/31/jacob-zuma-ordered-repay-upgrades-nkandla-home-south-african-state-funds.
39. Chutel, “South Africa’s President Finally Paid Back $540,000 the State Used to Renovate His Private Home.”
40. Jason Burke, “Tens of Thousands March against Jacob Zuma in South Africa,” Guardian, April 7, 2017, sec. World News, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/07/tens-of-thousands-march-against-jacob-zuma-in-south-africa.
41. Pier Paolo Frassinelli, “Survey Sheds Light on Who Marched against Zuma and Why,” Mail & Guardian, April 22, 2017, https://mg.co.za/article/2017-04-22-survey-sheds-light-on-who-marched-against-zuma-and-why/.
42. https://www.savesouthafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/letter-to-president-jacob-zuma-6-october-20161.pdf.
43. Frassinelli, “Survey Sheds Light on Who Marched against Zuma and Why.”
44. EFF, “EFF—About Us,” https://effonline.org/about-us/.
45. Melanie Müller, “Competition for the ANC: Dominant Party Losing Youth and Poorer Sections of South African Population,” Stiftung Wissenschaft Und Politik, May 2017, 8.
46. Robert Nyenhuis, “The Political Struggle for ‘the People’: Populist Discourse in the 2019 South African Elections,” Commonwealth & Comparative Politics 58, no. 4 (October 1, 2020): 409–32; News24, “Malema: It’s an EFF Revolution,” July 11, 2013, https://www.news24.com/News24/malema-its-an-eff-revolution-20130711.News24.
47. Author analysis of GCRO_2017.
48. Gqirana Thulani, “I Know Nothing about Gupta Business Dealings—Zuma,” News24, May 17, 2016, https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/i-know-nothing-about-gupta-business-dealings-zuma-20160517.
49. “Highest Voter Turnout Ever Recorded for Local Elections,” News24, August 7, 2016, https://www.news24.com/elections/news/highest-voter-turnout-ever-recorded-for-local-elections-20160807.
50. Ndletyana, Anatomy of the ANC in Power.
51. The question of what role the Black middle class played in the development of democracy in South Africa demands more attention than I provide here. The positive contribution of the middle class to democracy more generally was famously defended in Barrington Moore Jr., Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy: Lord and Peasant in the Making of the Modern World (Boston: Beacon Press, 1966). South African analysts have been more circumspect. See, e.g., David Everatt, “South Africa’s Black Middle Class Is Battling to Find a Political Home,” The Conversation, May 1, 2019, http://theconversation.com/south-africas-Black-middle-class-is-battling-to-find-a-political-home-116180; Robert Mattes, “South Africa’s Emerging Black Middle Class: A Harbinger of Political Change?” Journal of International Development 27, no. 5 (2015): 665–92.
52. Tom Head, “Just How Many Wives Does Jacob Zuma Have, and Who Are They?” The South African (blog), October 5, 2017, https://www.thesouthafrican.com/lifestyle/south-africans-abroad/how-many-wives-does-jacob-zuma-have/.
53. Rod Alence and Anne Pitcher, “How the ANC Survived Jacob Zuma—and Eked out a Win in South Africa’s Election,” Washington Post, May 17, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/05/17/how-anc-survived-jacob-zuma-eked-out-win-south-africas-election/.
54. Qaanitah Hunter, “Cyril Ramaphosa Wins ANC Presidential Race,” TimesLIVE, December 18, 2017, https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-12-18-cyril-ramaphosa-wins-anc-presidential-race/.
55. “Auditor General Applauds Mogale City,” Krugersdorp News, March 6, 2015, https://krugersdorpnews.co.za/258543/auditor-general-applauds-mogale-city/.
56. https://www.agsa.co.za/Portals/0/Reports/MFMA/201819/GR/MFMA%20GR%202018-19%20Interactive.pdf.
57. Author analysis of GCRO_2017.
58. Thomas A. Koelble and Andrew Siddle, “Why Decentralization in South Africa Has Failed,” Governance 26, no. 3 (2013): 343–46.
59. Author analyses of GCRO_2013, GCRO_2017.
60. Koketso Calvin Seerane, “State of the City Address, Mogale City Local Municipality” (Centenary Hall, Civic Centre, Mogale City, April 8, 2011), https://www.mogalecity.gov.za/wp-content/uploads/Pdfs/Council%20Page/Key%20Documents/Speeches/2011/8%20April%202011_2stateofthecity2011.pdf?_t=1538571848.
61. Feike de Jong, “Which City Has the Most Protests?” Guardian, September 7, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/sep/07/which-city-most-protests-hong-kong-trump; Silvia Bianco, “South Africa: The ‘Protest Capital of the World,’ ” The South African (blog), June 20, 2013, https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news/south-africa-the-protest-capital-of-the-world/.
62. Peter Alexander et al., “Frequency and Turmoil: South Africa’s Community Protests, 2005–2017,” South African Crime Quarterly 63 (2018): 27–42; South African Civil Society Information Service, “Protest Nation: What’s Driving the Demonstrations on the Streets of South Africa?” SACSIS.org.za, February 27, 2014, http://sacsis.org.za/site/article/1930; Susan Booysen, “With the Ballot and the Brick: The Politics of Attaining Service Delivery,” Progress in Development Studies; London 7, no. 1 (January 2007): 21–32; Peter Alexander, “Rebellion of the Poor: South Africa’s Service Delivery Protests—a Preliminary Analysis,” Review of African Political Economy 37, no. 123 (2010): 25–40.
63. Here I use the title phrase from Booysen, “With the Ballot and the Brick.” See also Alexander et al., “Frequency and Turmoil.”
64. Ghia ten Doeschate, “[WATCH] And the New Mayor of Mogale City Is …,” Krugersdorp News, August 18, 2016, sec. Editor’s Choice, https://krugersdorpnews.co.za/305316/and-the-new-mayor-of-mogale-city-is/.
65. Author analysis of SACOPS_2017.
66. “Mogale City Mayor Holenstein Removed after No-Confidence Vote,” Citizen, June 7, 2017, https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1536509/mogale-city-mayor-holenstein-removed-after-no-confidence-vote/.
67. Claudi Mailovich, “ANC Wins Tight Mayoral Election in Mogale City,” TimesLIVE, June 29, 2017, https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2017-06-29-anc-wins-tight-mayoral-election-in-mogale-city/.
68. Tandwa Lizeka, “Mogale City DA Councillor Resigns as Colleagues Do Lie Detector Tests,” News24, June 14, 2017, https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/mogale-city-da-councillor-resigns-as-colleagues-do-lie-detector-tests-20170614.
69. Eric Naki, “New Leadership for Mogale City but Troubles Not over Yet,” Citizen, June 30, 2017, https://citizen.co.za/news/1557455/mogale-city-fails-pass-budget-opposition-boycott/.
70. Bianca Pindral, “[WATCH] Massive Fist-Fight in Mogale City Municipal Parking Lot,” Krugersdorp News, September 1, 2017, sec. Editor’s Choice, https://krugersdorpnews.co.za/334307/watch-massive-fist-fight-in-mogale-city-municipal-parking-lot/.
71. As mentioned in chapter 1, so would the national government, most notably and lethally in the response to striking workers at the Lonmin mine in 2012.
72. Eyewitness News, “Cradle of Humankind Protest Continues,” February 1, 2014, https://ewn.co.za/2014/02/01/Cradle-of-Humankind-protest-continues; Ilanit Chemick, “Shack Dwellers Voice Grievances,” Independent Online, July 29, 2015, https://www.iol.co.za/news/shack-dwellers-voice-grievances-1892385.
73. Jason Burke, “ ‘We Are a Family’—on Patrol with the Red Ants,” Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2018/may/08/red-ants-mass-evictions.
74. “Residents Angry about Relocation of Informal Settlers,” Krugersdorp News, December 7, 2018, https://krugersdorpnews.co.za/370334/residents-angry-about-relocation-of-informal-settlers/.
75. Evan Lieberman, Philip Martin, and Nina McMurry, “When Do Strong Parties ‘Throw the Bums Out’? Competition and Accountability in South African Candidate Nominations,” Studies in Comparative International Development 56 (2021): 316–42.
76. For the importance of the foundational election on voting patterns, see Daniel de Kadt, “Voting Then, Voting Now: The Long-Term Consequences of Participation in South Africa’s First Democratic Election,” Journal of Politics 79, no. 2 (2017): 670–87.
77. Author analysis of GCRO_2017. The correlation between participation in these events is R =.61.
78. Lieberman, Martin, and McMurry, “When Do Strong Parties ‘Throw the Bums Out’?”
79. Jeffrey W. Paller, “Dignified Public Expression: A New Logic of Political Accountability,” Comparative Politics 52, no. 1 (2019): 85–116.
80. Analysis of GCRO_2015 verbatim answers from the open-ended question, “Why do you have this opinion of your councillor?”
81. Kimberly Lanegran, “South Africa’s 1999 Election: Consolidating a Dominant Party System,” Africa Today 48, no. 2 (2001): 81–102.
82. Daniel N. Posner and Daniel J. Young, “The Institutionalization of Political Power in Africa,” Journal of Democracy 18, no. 3 (2007): 126–40.
83. In 1999, the ANC was technically one seat short but entered into a coalition with the Minority Front party, which held one seat.
84. The analysis of Nigeria is from Richard A. Joseph, Democracy and Prebendal Politics in Nigeria: The Rise and Fall of the Second Republic (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1987). Joseph also draws on the work of Weber in India.
85. Peter P. Ekeh, “Colonialism and the Two Publics in Africa: A Theoretical Statement,” Comparative Studies in Society and History 17, no. 1 (1975): 91–112.
86. Hennie van Vuuren, Apartheid Guns and Money: A Tale of Profit (London: Hurst & Company, 2018). For a discussion of the continuation of corrupt practice from the Apartheid era as well as challenges in addressing corruption after Apartheid, see Vinothan Naidoo, “The Politics of Anti-Corruption Enforcement in South Africa,” Journal of Contemporary African Studies 31, no. 4 (October 1, 2013): 523–42.
87. Author analyses of TI_2019. Regressing 2019 corruption perception index scores on logged GDP/capita generates an adjusted R-squared of .66; and based on the estimated coefficient (−2.162), the predicted South African corruption score is 55.76 and the actual score is 56.
88. See, e.g., Adam Przeworski, “Minimalist Conception of Democracy: A Defense,” in Democracy’s Value eds. Adam Przeworski and Casiano Hacker-Cordon (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999), 23–55.
89. See, e.g., Jacob Dlamini, The Terrorist Album: Apartheid’s Insurgents, Collaborators, and the Security Police (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2020).
90. André Du Toit and N. Chabani Manganyi, Political Violence and the Struggle in South Africa (New York: Springer, 2016), 1.
91. Karl von Holdt, “On Violent Democracy,” Sociological Review (Keele) 62, no. 2, suppl. (2014): 129–51.
92. Karl von Holdt et al., “The Smoke That Calls: Insurgent Citizenship, Collective Violence and the Struggle for a Place in the New South Africa” (Johannesburg: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation [CSVR], 2011), 10–11.
93. Norimitsu Onishi, “Hit Men and Power: South Africa’s Leaders Are Killing One Another,” New York Times, September 30, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/30/world/africa/south-africa-anc-killings.html.
94. Author analysis of SCAD_2017.
95. UN Office on Drugs and Crime’s International Homicide Statistics Database, via World Bank Data Portal, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?locations=ZA.
96. Duxita Mistry, “Falling Crime, Rising Fear: 2003 National Victims of Crime Survey,” South African Crime Quarterly, no. 8 (2004): 17–24.
97. Andrew Faull, “Victim Surveys Show That Crime in South Africa May Be Dropping, yet Fear Is Rising,” The Conversation, October 2, 2018, http://theconversation.com/victim-surveys-show-that-crime-in-south-africa-may-be-dropping-yet-fear-is-rising-103648.
98. For example, on these indicators: Freedom of Association (Thick): “To what extent are parties, including opposition parties, allowed to form and to participate in elections, and to what extent are civil society organizations able to form and to operate freely?”; Judicial Constraints: “To what extent does the executive respect the constitution and comply with court rulings, and to what extent is the judiciary able to act in an independent fashion?”; Freedom of Expression Index: “To what extent does government respect press and media freedom, the freedom of ordinary people to discuss political matters at home and in the public sphere, as well as the freedom of academic and cultural expression?” See Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (New York: Routledge, 2003).
Chapter 7
1. Stanley Greenberg, “Mandela on the Campaign Trail,” American Prospect, December 12, 2013, https://prospect.org/api/content/1f9f9d5a-df9a-550d-9a69-4c365f8670bd/.
2. Lanegran, “South Africa’s 1999 Election.”
3. Africa Check, “No, the ANC Has Not Built Five Million Houses since 1994,” The South African (blog), March 2, 2016, https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news/no-the-anc-has-not-built-five-million-houses-since-1994/; “South Africa,” Centre for Affordable Housing Finance Africa, November 6, 2018, http://housingfinanceafrica.org/countries/south-africa/.
4. Based on the SA_Census_1996, SA_CommSurv_2016. The figures may be higher; in a different source, according to Stats SA, in 2015, 80.4% of female-headed and 82% of male-headed households lived in formal housing. Statistics South Africa and Risenga Maluleke, eds., “Men, Women, and Children: Findings of the Living Conditions Survey 2014/15,” Report, no. 03-10-02 (2014/15) (Pretoria: Statistics South Africa, 2018).
5. The numbers reported here are from the Statistics SA (Stats SA) Nesstar database, accessed June 25, 2021, considering electricity as a source of lighting (http://nesstar.statssa.gov.za:8282/webview/). According to Stats SA, in 2015, more than 94% of households had a connection to the electric supply, including over 92% of poor households. Statistics South Africa and Maluleke, “Men, Women, and Children.”
6. “Census in Brief—3.9,” Stats SA, accessed March 10, 2020, https://apps.statssa.gov.za/census01/Census96/HTML/CIB/Households/39.htm.
7. Maluleke, “Inequality Trends in South Africa,” 47.
8. According to SA_Census_1996 and SA_CommSurv_2016, accessed June 25, 2021, http://nesstar.statssa.gov.za:8282/webview/.
9. WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation via World Bank Data Portal, accessed June 25, 2021, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.STA.ODFC.ZS?locations=ZA.
10. Author analysis of WDI via World Bank Data Portal, accessed June 25, 2021. Note some slight discrepancies with South African data—the World Bank estimates only 85% of households had access in 2016–19. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS?locations=ZG-ZA-BW-XT-NA-LS-XO-ZW.
11. Verena Kroth, Valentino Larcinese, and Joachim Wehner, “A Better Life for All? Democratization and Electrification in Post-Apartheid South Africa,” Journal of Politics 78, no. 3 (2016): 774–91.
12. De Kadt and Lieberman, “Nuanced Accountability.”
13. Pierre De Vos, “Grootboom, the Right of Access to Housing and Substantive Equality as Contextual Fairness,” South African Journal on Human Rights 17, no. 2 (2001): 258–76.
14. Interview with Lerato Dube (name changed), May 7, 2019, Methodist Church of Kagiso.
15. I confirmed this basic characterization of Kagiso: R. Pennington et al., The South African Township Annual (Johannesburg, 1988), n.p., in Hyslop, “Problems of Explanation in the Study of Afrikaner Nationalism,” 377. In Kagiso in the mid-1980s, only a quarter of houses, just two high schools, and few recreational facilities were electrified (n18).
16. Author analysis of GCRO_2017.
17. Author analysis of HMS_2019.
18. Author analysis of GCRO_2017.
19. “A Place to Call Home for Ethembalethu Residents,” SAnews, April 13, 2014, https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/place-call-home-ethembalethu-residents.
20. However, there was a 2008 World Bank Study documenting the development as it was in progress. Stephen Berrisford, Dave DeGroot, Michael Kihato, Ntombini Marrengane, Zimkhitha Mhlanga, and Rogier van den Brink, “In Search of Land and Housing in the New South Africa: The Case of Ethembalethu,” World Bank working paper, no. 130 (Washington, DC: World Bank, © World Bank, 2008), https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/6364, License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
21. Robert D. Putnam, Robert Leonardi, and Raffaella Nanetti, Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993).
22. Gwyneth H. McClendon, Envy in Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2018).
23. Pitcher, Party Politics and Economic Reform in Africa’s Democracies, 190.
24. In the early part of the twentieth century, White South Africa did indeed develop a “social welfare state” that in many ways was comparable to that of many advanced industrialized countries, and it did so on the basis of a sense of cross-class White solidarity. See, e.g., Lieberman, Race and Regionalism. However, it is important to recognize that this was a contested process that proceeded in fits and starts. See, e.g., Jeremy Seekings, “The Carnegie Commission and the Backlash against Welfare State-Building in South Africa, 1931–1937,” Journal of Southern African Studies 34, no. 3 (2008): 515–37.
25. Roger Southall, The New Black Middle Class in South Africa (Woodbridge: Boydell & Brewer, 2016), 41–64.
26. Author analyses of WDI.
27. See, e.g., Jakkie Cilliers, “Why South Africa’s Economy Is Likely to Grow More Slowly than Its Potential,” The Conversation, August 19, 2015, http://theconversation.com/why-south-africas-economy-is-likely-to-grow-more-slowly-than-its-potential-46158; World Bank, “An Incomplete Transition: Overcoming the Legacy of Exclusion in South Africa (Republic of South Africa Systematic Country Diagnostic),” April 30, 2018, http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/815401525706928690/pdf/WBG-South-Africa-Systematic-Country-Diagnostic-FINAL-for-board-SECPO-Edit-05032018.pdf. See also OECD, “South Africa Policy Brief—Bribery and Corruption,” July 2015, https://www.oecd.org/policy-briefs/south-africa-reducing-bribery-risks-in-cross-border-trade-and-investment-deals.pdf.
28. More generally, South Africa may be victim to what has been described as the “middle-income trap,” which prevents them from upgrading to high-income status. See Indermit S. Gill and Homi Kharas, “The Middle-Income Trap Turns Ten” (World Bank, 2015), http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/291521468179640202/The-middle-income-trap-turns-ten. Extreme inequality can entrench various perverse conditions including the consolidation of economic power and impede the formation of needed social coalitions. See Richard F. Doner and Ben Ross Schneider, “The Middle-Income Trap More Politics than Economics,” World Politics, no. 4 (2016): 608–44.
29. Based on per capita income and World Bank Classification in 1990.
30. Acemoglu et al., “Democracy Does Cause Growth.”
31. Statistics South Africa, “The Decreasing Importance of Gold Mining in South Africa,” accessed March 10, 2020, http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=4252. One reason for this may be China’s decreased demand. Kevin Sieff, “South Africa’s Gold Industry, like Its Economy, Is Crumbling,” Washington Post, March 7, 2016, sec. Africa, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/south-africas-gold-industry-like-its-economy-is-crumbling/2016/03/07/33ae7a26-cc6f-11e5-b9ab-26591104bb19_story.html.
32. For the period 1993–2013, see Jeremy Seekings and Nicoli Nattrass, Policy, Politics and Poverty in South Africa (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015), 126.
33. Author analyses of GCRO_2017. Gauteng summary excludes Mogale City.
34. Carefully implemented studies have come to disparate conclusions, analyzed different periods, and used different types of data. See online appendix for detailed analyses.
35. See Murray Leibbrandt, Vimal Ranchhod, and Pippa Green, “Taking Stock of South African Income Inequality,” WIDER Working Paper (United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, 2018). See also Lynsey Chutel and Dan Kopf, “All the Charts That Show South Africa’s Inequality Is Only Getting Worse,” Quartz Africa, May 10, 2018, https://qz.com/africa/1273676/south-africas-inequality-is-getting-worse-as-it-struggle-to-create-jobs-after-Apartheid/.
36. Maluleke, “Inequality Trends in South Africa,” 47.
37. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, “World Social Report 2020—Inequality in a Rapidly Changing World” (United Nations, 2020), 4, https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2020/02/World-Social-Report2020-FullReport.pdf.
38. Republic of South Africa, “Social Development,” https://www.gov.za/about-sa/social-development.
39. Bridget Masango, “SASSA Officials Are Defrauding the System by Bypassing Capturing Biometric Data of Beneficiaries,” Democratic Alliance News Release, August 29, 2018, https://www.da.org.za/2018/08/sassa-officials-are-defrauding-the-system-by-bypassing-capturing-biometric-data-of-beneficiaries; Albert Pule, “SASSA Declares War on Corruption,” Vuk’uzenzele (Government Communication), January 2014, https://www.vukuzenzele.gov.za/sassa-declares-war-corruption; Khaya Koko, “Sassa Shelves Biometric System, Paving Way for End to Strike,” Independent Online, October 11, 2018, https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/sassa-shelves-biometric-system-paving-way-for-end-to-strike-17435528.
40. Detailed analyses are presented in an online appendix.
41. A finding from 1995 to 2005, from Haroon Bhorat, David Tseng, and Benjamin Stanwix, “Pro-Poor Growth and Social Protection in South Africa: Exploring the Interactions,” Development Southern Africa 31, no. 2 (March 2014): 219–40.
42. Servaas van der Berg, Megan Louw, and Derek Yu, “Post-Transition Poverty Trends Based on an Alternative Data Source,” South African Journal of Economics 76, no. 1 (2008): 58–76; but see critiques from Charles Meth, “What Was the Poverty Headcount in 2004 and How Does It Compare to Recent Estimates by van der Berg et al.?” Working Paper (Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town, 2006); Charles Meth, “Flogging a Dead Horse: Attempts by van der Berg et al. to Measure Changes in Poverty and Inequality,” Working Paper (Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town, 2007).
43. Measured as $1.90 in PPP dollars.
44. Poverty head count ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) via World Bank Data portal, accessed June 25, 2021, https://data.worldbank.org/topic/poverty?locations=ZA. From the official South African perspective, the share of people living below the national poverty line is much higher: approximately half (49.2%) of adults living under the “upper bound poverty line” of R992/month (about $70/month or $840 annually). See also http://millionssaved.cgdev.org/case-studies/south-africas-child-support-grant, accessed March 1, 2021.
45. Sanam Roder-Dewan, Francisca Ayodeji Akala, and Jeremy Veillard, “Human Capital and Health,” Investing in Health (blog), June 10, 2019, https://blogs.worldbank.org/health/human-capital-and-health.
46. Author calculations based on analyses of 2011 census data merged with DBE_2019 school data.
47. UNESCO Institute for Statistics, Government Expenditure on Education (total % GDP) via World Bank Data portal accessed June 25, 2021, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS?locations=ZA-ZG-XT&view=chart.
48. World Health Organization Global Health Expenditure Database, Domestic General Government Health Expenditure (% of GDP) via World Bank Data portal accessed June 25, 2021, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.GHED.GD.ZS?locations=XT-ZG-ZA&most_recent_value_desc=true&view=chart.
49. D. Wilkinson, M. E. Sach, and S. S. Abdool Karim, “Examination of Attendance Patterns before and after Introduction of South Africa’s Policy of Free Health Care for Children Aged under 6 Years and Pregnant Women,” British Medical Journal 314, no. 7085 (March 29, 1997): 940–41. This policy excluded those who were already covered by medical aid/insurance and those making more than R100,000 a year.
50. Solomon R. Benatar, “Health Care Reform in the New South Africa,” New England Journal of Medicine 336, no. 12 (March 20, 1997): 891–96; Annie Leatt et al., “Healing Inequalities: The Free Health Care Policy,” in South African Child Gauge, ed. Maylene Shung-King (Cape Town: Children’s Institute, University of Cape Town, 2006), 51–56.
51. Leatt et al., “Healing Inequalities.”
52. UNICEF, State of the World’s Children, Childinfo and Demographic Health Surveys via World Bank Data Portal, accessed June 25, 2021, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.STA.BRTC.ZS?locations=ZA-ZG-XT.
53. African Union Department of Social Affairs, “African Health Stats,” accessed June 25, 2021, https://www.africanhealthstats.org/cms/.
54. See, e.g., World Health Organization, Global Tuberculosis Report, incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people) via World Bank Data Portal, accessed June 25, 2021, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.TBS.INCD?locations=ZA-ZG-XT&most_recent_value_desc=true.
55. “CDC Global Health—South Africa—CDC’s HIV/AIDS Care and Treatment Programs,” February 21, 2019, https://www.cdc.gov/globalhealth/countries/southafrica/what/hiv_aids_treatment.htm.
56. Nontsikelelo Mpulo, “South Africa Leading on HIV Policy Adoption but There’s Still Some Way to Go,” SECTION27 (blog), November 30, 2020, https://section27.org.za/2020/11/south-africa-leading-on-hiv-policy-adoption-but-theres-still-some-way-to-go/.
57. Jackie Dugard, Jennifer MacLeod, and Anna Alcaro, “A Rights-Based Examination of Residents’ Engagement with Acute Environmental Harm across Four Sites on South Africa’s Witwatersrand Basin,” Social Research 79, no. 4 (Winter 2012): 931–56, 1084–85.
58. Personal tour with Mariette Liefferink, the CEO of Federation for a Sustainable Environment.
59. Ed Stoddard and Aruo Patricia, “South Africa Miners Reach $400 Million Silicosis Settlement with Mining Companies,” Reuters, May 3, 2018, sec. Commodities News, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-mining-silicosis-idUSKBN1I41B9.
60. UNESCO Institute for Statistics, School Enrollment, Secondary (% Gross) via World Bank Data Portal, accessed June 25, 2021, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.SEC.ENRR?locations=ZA-ZG-XT&most_recent_value_desc=true.
61. Montfort Mlachila and Tlhalefang Moeletsi, “Struggling to Make the Grade: A Review of the Causes and Consequences of the Weak Outcomes of South Africa’s Education System,” Working Paper (International Monetary Fund, 2019), 6.
62. Saleem Badat and Yusuf Sayed, “Post-1994 South African Education: The Challenge of Social Justice,” ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 652, no. 1 (2014): 127–48.
63. Vijay Reddy et al., “Beyond Benchmarks: What Twenty Years of TIMSS Data Tell Us about South African Education” (Human Sciences Research Council, 2015), https://www.iea.nl/sites/default/files/2019-05/TIMSS_2011_report_SouthAfrica.pdf.
64. Edward B. Fiske and Helen F. Ladd, Elusive Equity: Education Reform in Post-Apartheid South Africa (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2004), http://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/mit/detail.action?docID=273543.
65. Reddy et al., “Beyond Benchmarks.”
66. Norimitsu Onishi and Selam Gebrekidan, “South Africa Vows to End Corruption: Are Its New Leaders Part of the Problem?” New York Times, August 4, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/04/world/africa/south-africa-anc-david-mabuza.html.
67. Kimon de Greef, “After Children Die in Pit Toilets, South Africa Vows to Fix School Sanitation,” New York Times, August 14, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/14/world/africa/south-africa-school-toilets.html.
68. “Sanitation Appropriate for Education,” The Borgen Project (blog), https://borgenproject.org/tag/sanitation-appropriate-for-education/.
69. Based on author analyses of Afrob_2018.
Chapter 8
1. “Religious Commitment by Country and Age” (Pew Research Center, June 13, 2018), https://www.pewforum.org/2018/06/13/how-religious-commitment-varies-by-country-among-people-of-all-ages/.
2. I frequently found when I asked someone for an interview and offered to meet anywhere they preferred, they would suggest a Mugg and Bean or other franchise chain, often within a shopping mall. Perhaps this is due to the fact that they are “safe” places, with ample parking, and/or perhaps this is where they believed an American researcher might feel most comfortable.
3. As Dlamini points out, police brutality and government death squads were not directly experienced by most Black South Africans. Rather, a prevalent pain of Apartheid was the “daily humiliations of being bumped off a pavement by a white person, or having a white person cut in front of you in a queue in a shop.” Dlamini, Native Nostalgia, 15.
4. The Xhosa equivalent is ungamntu ngabanye abantu. Michael Battle, Reconciliation: The Ubuntu Theology of Desmond Tutu (Cleveland: Pilgrim Press, 1997).
5. Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy, “Hunhu/Ubuntu,” 2020, https://www.iep.utm.edu/hunhu/.
6. “2017–12—Little Foot Takes a Bow—Wits University,” December 6, 2017, http://www.wits.ac.za/news/latest-news/research-news/2017/2017-12/little-foot-takes-a-bow.html; “Complete Fossil,” Science 282, no. 5397 (1998): 2183.
7. Peter Limb, “Sol Plaatje Reconsidered: Rethinking Plaatje’s Attitudes to Class, Nation, Gender, and Empire 1,” African Studies 62, no. 1 (2003): 33–52.
8. Thaddeus Metz, “Dignity in the Ubuntu Tradition,” in The Cambridge Handbook of Human Dignity: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, ed. Marcus Düwell et al. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014).
9. See also Netshitomboni Sivhaga, “Ubuntu: Fundamental Value and Interpretive Aid” (Master of Laws, University of South Africa, 1998), 4–5, 7–9.
10. Benedict Anderson, Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism (London: Verso, 1983).
11. Allen, Rabble-Rouser for Peace.
12. Such efforts to excavate the past were not always successful. Tutu and other commissioners interrogated Winnie Mandela about her role in the killing of Stompie Sepei at the hands of her bodyguards, known as the Mandela United Football Club. Tutu pleaded with her to come clean, but she was not forthcoming.
13. Truth & Reconciliation Commission, “Truth and Reconciliation Commission of South Africa Report, 1998,” https://www.justice.gov.za/trc/report, 166–67.
14. Therese Abrahamsen and Hugo van der Merwe, “Reconciliation through Amnesty? Amnesty Applicants’ Views of the South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission” (Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation, 2005), http://www.csvr.org.za/docs/trc/reconciliationthroughamnesty.pdf.
15. “Truth Commission: South Africa,” United States Institute of Peace, December 1, 1995, https://www.usip.org/publications/1995/12/truth-commission-south-africa.
16. SABC News Online, “Understanding Amnesty in South Africa,” https://social.shorthand.com/SABCNewsOnline/nyCsx09gnf/understanding-amnesty-in-south-africa.
17. TRC, “Transcript of Truth and Reconciliation Commission Amnesty Decision” (Truth and Reconciliation Commission, 1998).
18. Abrahamsen and van der Merwe, “Reconciliation through Amnesty?” See also James L. Gibson and Amanda Gouws, “Truth and Reconciliation in South Africa: Attributions of Blame and the Struggle over Apartheid,” American Political Science Review 93, no. 3 (1999): 501–17; Jacob Dlamini, “Apartheid Confessions,” Interventions 18, no. 6 (November 1, 2016): 772–85, highlights the prickly challenge of how to treat Apartheid-era collaborators and points out that more than two decades after the commission did its work, South Africans are largely “in the dark” about what was confessed by those who perpetrated human rights violations.
19. “Justice Compromised: The Legacy of Rwanda’s Community-Based Gacaca Courts” (Human Rights Watch, May 31, 2011), https://www.hrw.org/report/2011/05/31/justice-compromised/legacy-rwandas-community-based-gacaca-courts.
20. Anderson, Imagined Communities.
21. Carolyn Holmes, The Black and White Rainbow: Reconciliation, Opposition, and Nation-Building in Democratic South Africa (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2020), 2–3.
22. See Anderson, Imagined Communities, on the role of museums in the process of nation-building.
23. Willem De Klerk, Krugersdorp, 100 Jaar [Krugersdorp, 100 Years] (Krugersdorp: Stadsraad van Krugersdorp, 1987), 78.
24. Dugmore, “The Making of Krugersdorp,” 223–27.
25. Kenichi Serino, “Anti-Racism Protesters in South Africa Use Poop to Make a Point,” Al Jazeera America, April 6, 2015, http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/4/6/anti-racism-protesters-in-south-africa-take-aim-at-a-statue-with-poop.html.
26. Emily A. West, “Descriptive Representation and Political Efficacy: Evidence from Obama and Clinton,” Journal of Politics 79, no. 1 (2017): 351–55; T. D. Barnes and S. M. Burchard, “ ‘Engendering’ Politics: The Impact of Descriptive Representation on Women’s Political Engagement in Sub-Saharan Africa,” Comparative Political Studies 46, no. 7 (2012): 767–90.
27. See also Holmes, The Black and White Rainbow, which highlights limits to the South African nation-building endeavor.
28. Author analysis of HMS_2019. The remaining 6% responded, “Don’t know” or did not answer.
29. Author analysis of SASAS_2016.
30. Author analysis of Afrob_2015.
31. Author analysis of HMS_2019.
32. Amy Chua, World on Fire: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability (New York: Random House, 2003).
33. Jennifer Williams, “Trump’s Tweet Echoing White Nationalist Propaganda about South African Farmers, Explained,” Vox, August 23, 2018, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/23/17772056/south-africa-trump-tweet-afriforum-white-farmers-violence.
34. Norimitsu Onishi, “In South Africa’s Fabled Wine Country, White and Black Battle Over Land,” New York Times, March 9, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/09/world/africa/stellenbosch-south-africa.html.
35. Joe Brock, “Trump and Land Fears Boost South Africa’s White Right ‘State,’ ” Reuters, November 21, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-land-afriforum-insight/trump-and-land-fears-boost-south-africas-White-right-state-idUSKCN1NQ0FY.
36. Carolyn E. Holmes, “Victimhood Gone Viral: Portrayals of Extra-Lethal Violence and the Solidarity of Victims in the Case of South African Farm Violence Activists,” Politics, Groups, and Identities (2020): 1–21.
37. Getrude Makhafola, “Velaphi Khumalo Found Guilty of Hate Speech,” Independent Online, October 5, 2018, https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/gauteng/velaphi-khumalo-found-guilty-of-hate-speech-17366497. Even Julius Malema was found guilty of hate speech for singing “Shoot the Boer,” an Apartheid-era freedom song. Alan Cowell, “ANC Official Convicted of Hate Speech,” New York Times, September 12, 2011, sec. World, https://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/13/world/africa/13southafrica.html.
38. Author analysis of GCRO_2017.
39. Wendy Wang, “The Rise of Intermarriage,” Pew Social and Demographic Trends, February 12, 2012, pewresearch.org/social-trends/2012/02/16/the-rise-of-intermarriage/, p. 37.
40. “Children in Detention,” South African History Archive, accessed January 31, 2021, https://www.saha.org.za/youth/children_in_detention.htm.
41. Author analysis of SASAS_2016. Based on calculation of Herfindahl index, using population shares documented in chapter 3, if race were not a barrier, we might expect the likelihood of any two randomly selected people to be from different race groups about one out of three times, about eight times more frequent than what I found in practice.
42. Globally, those whose ethnic group is out of power have tended to report less pride on this survey than those whose ethnic group is in power. Andreas Wimmer, “Power and Pride,” World Politics 69, no. 4 (2017): 605–39.
43. Author analyses of HSRC_1994 and HMS_2019.
44. Author analyses of SASAS_2016.
45. She was also the founder of the liberal Progressive Party, which was the only one to openly support extending rights to all South Africans, and the most vocal critic of Apartheid policies in the legislature. She held her parliamentary seat for thirty-six years before serving as a member of the initial Independent Electoral Commission and the Human Rights Commission.
46. Limb, “Sol Plaatje Reconsidered,” 37.
47. Shireen Hassim, “The Gender Pact and Democratic Consolidation: Institutionalizing Gender Equality in the South African State,” Feminist Studies 29, no. 3 (2003): 505–28.
48. Gisela Geisler, “ ‘Parliament Is Another Terrain of Struggle’: Women, Men and Politics in South Africa,” Journal of Modern African Studies 38, no. 4 (2000): 605–30.
49. Demands included: political enfranchisement; equality of opportunity in employment and equal pay; equal rights in property, marriage, and children; paid maternity leave and childcare for working mothers; and free and compulsory education for all children. They were incorporated into the Freedom Charter.
50. Geisler, “ ‘Parliament Is Another Terrain of Struggle.’ ” See also Cherryl Walker, Women and Resistance in South Africa (Cape Town: David Philip, 1991).
51. Hassim, “The Gender Pact and Democratic Consolidation”; Saras Jagwanth and Christina Murray, “Ten Years of Transformation: How Has Gender Equality in South Africa Fared?” Canadian Journal of Women & the Law 14, no. 2 (December 2002): 255–99.
52. Geisler, “ ‘Parliament Is Another Terrain of Struggle,’ ” 626.
53. Julie Ballington, “Women’s Parliamentary Representation: The Effect of List PR,” Politikon 25, no. 2 (December 1998): 77–93; Hassim, “The Gender Pact and Democratic Consolidation.”
54. Jagwanth and Murray, “Ten Years of Transformation.”
55. Alex Thornton, “These Countries Have the Most Women in Parliament,” World Economic Forum, February 12, 2019, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/02/chart-of-the-day-these-countries-have-the-most-women-in-parliament/.
56. Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security, “Women, Peace, and Security Index,” accessed June 25, 2021, https://giwps.georgetown.edu/the-index/.
57. Hassim, “The Gender Pact and Democratic Consolidation”; Amanda Gouws, “Obstacles for Women in Leadership Positions: The Case of South Africa,” Signs 34, no. 1 (2008): 21.
58. Gouws, “Obstacles for Women in Leadership Positions.”
59. “Xenophobic Violence in Democratic South Africa Timeline,” South African History Online, accessed April 6, 2020, https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/xenophobic-violence-democratic-south-africa-timeline.
60. Charles Carter, “Community and Conflict: The Alexandra Rebellion of 1986,” Journal of Southern African Studies 18, no. 1 (1992): 115–42.
61. Tamlyn Monson and Rebecca Arian, “Media Memory: A Critical Reconstruction of the May 2008 Violence,” in Exorcising the Demons Within: Xenophobia, Violence and Statecraft in Contemporary South Africa, ed. Loren B. Landau (Johannesburg: Wits University Press, 2011), 26–57.
62. South African Human Rights Commission, “Report on the SAHRC Investigation into Issues of Rule of Law, Justice and Impunity Arising out of the 2008 Public Violence against Non-Nationals” (Pretoria: South African Human Rights Commission, 2010), https://www.sahrc.org.za/home/21/files/Report%20on%20the%20SAHRC%20Investigation%20into%20Issues%20of%20Rule%20of%20Law,%20Justice%20and%20Impunity%20arising%20out%20of%20the%202008%20Public%20Violence%20against%20Non-Nationals.pdf.
63. Loren B. Landau, ed., Exorcising the Demons Within: Xenophobia, Violence and Statecraft in Contemporary South Africa (Johannesburg: Wits University Press, 2011).
64. Task Team on International Migration, “Green Paper on International Migration,” General Notice (Pretoria: Government Gazette, 1997).
65. Noor Nieftagodien and Aurelia Segatti, “Xenophobia’s Local Genesis: Historical Constructions of Insiders and the Politics of Exclusion in Alexandra Township,” in Exorcising the Demons Within: Xenophobia, Violence and Statecraft in Contemporary South Africa, ed. Loren B. Landau (Johannesburg: Wits University Press, 2011), 109–49.
66. Author analysis of SASAS_2015.
67. Author analysis of HMS_2019.
Chapter 9
1. Phillip de Wet, “The IEC Made R16.7 Million for SA from the Massacre of Minor Parties in the 2019 Elections,” Business Insider SA, May 13, 2019, https://www.businessinsider.co.za/failed-small-parties-made-the-election-commission-big-money-in-2019-elections-2019-5.
2. Author analyses of HMS_2019.
3. Bruce Bartlett, “South Africa’s Voter Turnout: A Mathematician Runs the Numbers,” The Conversation, May 27, 2019, http://theconversation.com/south-africas-voter-turnout-a-mathematician-runs-the-numbers-117199.
4. “Africa, Voter Turnout by Country,” Institute for Democracy and Electoral Accountability, accessed June 24, 2021, https://www.idea.int/data-tools/continent-view/Africa/40.
5. Rod Alence and Anne Pitcher, “Resisting State Capture in South Africa,” Journal of Democracy 30, no. 4 (2019): 5–19.
6. Author analysis of HMS_2019. This includes responses from citizens who refused to provide indication of their party support which is interpreted here as not expressing support for the ANC.
7. Likely more, if we assume that only Whites voted for the FF+ and given that the White share of the population is 21% and voter turnout was lower in wards with higher White areas.
8. Among the 262 majority-White wards, the correlation between Afrikaans population share and FF+ vote share was R =.72, p<.001.
9. Collette Schulz-Herzenberg, “The Decline of Partisan Voting and the Rise in Electoral Uncertainty in South Africa’s 2019 General Elections,” Politikon 46, no. 4 (2019): 462–80.
10. Author analyses of HMS_2019.
11. These findings largely echo what we found for the period 2001–11 in De Kadt and Lieberman, “Nuanced Accountability.”
12. Throughout, I use the term “predicted by” rather than “caused by” because in these analyses, it is hard to know what has caused what, and these sentiments may be correlated with one another for other reasons.
13. See, e.g., Sides, Tesler, and Vavreck, Identity Crisis.
14. For a fantastic study that relates the legacies of slavery to patterns in American politics, see Avidit Acharya, Matthew Blackwell, and Maya Sen, Deep Roots: How Slavery Still Shapes Southern Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2018).
15. E. R. Shipp, “The Races in Mississippi: Old Order and New,” New York Times, April 2, 1985, sec. A.
16. Matthew Hill, David Campanale, and Joel Gunter, “ ‘Their Goal Is to Destroy Everyone’: Uighur Camp Detainees Allege Systematic Rape,” BBC News, February 2, 2021, sec. China, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55794071.
17. “Myanmar Rohingya: What You Need to Know about the Crisis,” BBC News, January 23, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41566561.
18. “Rwanda: Decades of Attacks Repression and Killings Set the Scene for Next Month’s Election,” Amnesty International, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2017/07/rwanda-decades-of-attacks-repression-and-killings-set-the-scene-for-next-months-election/.
19. “Russia: Race to the Bottom on Rights,” Human Rights Watch, January 14, 2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/01/14/russia-race-bottom-rights.
20. Ian S. Lustick, Paradigm Lost: From Two-State Solution to One-State Reality (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2019).
21. See, e.g., Mamphela Ramphele, “Citizenship Challenges for South Africa’s Young Democracy,” Daedalus 130, no. 1 (2001): 1–17; Lungisile Ntsebeza, Democracy Compromised: Chiefs and the Politics of the Land in South Africa, Afrika-Studiecentrum Series, v. 5 (Leiden: Brill, 2005); Daniel de Kadt and Horacio A. Larreguy, “Agents of the Regime? Traditional Leaders and Electoral Politics in South Africa,” Journal of Politics 80, no. 2 (2018): 382–99.
22. Thabiso Mahlape, “Winning Rugby World Cup Doesn’t Mean We’re Together,” SowetanLIVE, November 4, 2019, https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/opinion/columnists/2019-11-04-winning-rugby-world-cup-doesnt-mean-were-together/.
23. Francis Fukuyama, Identity: The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2018).
24. See, e.g., Cheeseman, Democracy in Africa, appendix 1.
Epilogue
1. COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University, https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6.
2. Nomahlubi Jordaan, “Gauteng’s First Covid-19 Death Is a 79-Year-Old Man from Krugersdorp,” Krugersdorp News, March 31, 2020, https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2020-03-31-gautengs-first-covid-19-death-is-a-79-year-old-man-from-krugersdorp/.
3. “Active Covid-19 Cases in Mogale City Now at 3,082 with 512 Deaths,” Krugersdorp News, July 9, 2021, https://krugersdorpnews.co.za/461443/active-covid-19-cases-in-mogale-city-now-at-3-082-with-512-deaths/. Note: “Pamela Esso” is an alias.
4. See, e.g., Peter Baldwin, Contagion and the State in Europe, 1830–1930 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999).
5. Joseph Harris, “The Politics of Coronavirus Response in South Africa,” in Coronavirus Politics: The Comparative Politics and Policy of COVID-19, by Scott L. Greer et al. (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2021), 580–99.
6. “Department of Health Checks on Kagiso Shoppers,” Krugersdorp News (blog), April 1, 2020, https://krugersdorpnews.co.za/417038/department-of-health-checks-on-kagiso-shoppers/.
7. Andrew Harding, “South Africa’s Ruthlessly Efficient Fight against Coronavirus,” BBC News, April 3, 2020, sec. Africa, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52125713.
8. Sihle Mlambo, “Ministers to Take a 33% Pay Cut for Three Months, Donate to Covid-19 Relief Efforts,” Independent Online, April 9, 2020, https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/ministers-to-take-a-33-pay-cut-for-three-months-donate-to-covid-19-relief-efforts-46511874.
9. Harris, “The Politics of Coronavirus Response in South Africa,” 583.
10. Kate Bartlett, “South Africa Coronavirus Response Sees Racial Tensions Simmering,” Foreign Policy, June 12, 2020, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/12/south-africa-coronavirus-pandemic-racial-tensions/.
11. Yomi Kazeem, “African Governments Are Being Forced to Develop Social Welfare Programs in an Economic Crisis,” Quartz, June 23, 2020, https://qz.com/africa/1872046/african-countries-offer-cash-relief-covid-19-welfare-programs/. See also the work of Asivikelane, an initiative of the International Budget Project that has sought to amplify the voice of informal settlement dwellers suffering during the Covid pandemic, publishing reports on the best and worst practices of municipal governments: https://asivikelane.org/about/.
12. Cyril Ramaphosa, “OP-ED: The Government Welcomes Dissenting Viewpoints around Our Coronavirus Response,” Daily Maverick, May 18, 2020, https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-05-18-the-government-welcomes-dissenting-viewpoints-around-our-coronavirus-response/.
13. Terrence McCoy, “Brazil’s Prolonged Coronavirus Pandemic Has Driven Millions of Brazilians into Poverty,” Washington Post, June 25, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/06/25/brazil-pandemic-bolsonaro-poor-encampments/.
14. Steve Coll, “The Politics behind India’s COVID Crisis,” New Yorker, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/05/17/the-politics-behind-indias-covid-crisis.
15. Se-Ann Rall, “SA Unrest: 20 More Suspects Arrested over Phoenix Murders,” September 2, 2021, https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/kwazulu-natal/sa-unrest-20-more-suspects-arrested-over-phoenix-murders-b01cb6a3-67cd-41c5-8e9d-cdfc16c571da.