Technically, the two Koreas remain at war. The agreement signed in July 1953 was no more than a ceasefire – it was not and is not a peace treaty. US troops still garrison the 38th Parallel with their South Korean allies. Since the ceasefire there have been numerous border incidents and security alerts of one kind or another. Although there was a marked thaw in relations during the 1990s, more recently the tension has climbed. In 2010 a North Korean submarine sank a South Korean destroyer, killing forty-six people. The North Koreans denied culpability but the evidence against them seems overwhelming. North Korea has tested ballistic missiles and has a nuclear capability. In 2013 she openly threatened the South, as well as the USA and Japan. She also asserted that she no longer intended to abide by the 1953 ceasefire. As of June 2013 the North has proposed new peace talks and so there is some hope of improvement.
To a degree, this attitude may be the product of the paranoid family dictatorship which has governed the North since the war. Kim Il Sung ruled until his death in 1994. His son Kim Jong-il followed him until his own death in 2011, to be followed in turn by his youngest son, Kim Jong-un. Jong-un seems to be something of a throwback to his grandfather. Many analysts attribute the new bellicose rhetoric to personal insecurity and a need to establish himself. There can be no doubt, though, that North Korea poses a major risk to the region, if only because it is so difficult to read.
Within the country, vast resources are expended on the military instead of conventional economic development. Famines have been responsible for millions of deaths, mainly due to economic mismanagement. In 2009, the World Food Programme estimated that 40 per cent of North Korea’s factories were idle; the mismanagement continues. Personal freedom is non-existent and political control is exercised through a powerful leadership cult. In the face of UN sanctions, North Korea remains heavily reliant on China, its somewhat reluctant sponsor.
In the South, Rhee was forced out of office in 1960 and there followed a series of right-wing military dictatorships. Public discontent eventually led to the establishment of a modern democracy in 1987. During the same period South Korea built one of the most successful economies in Asia. In 1998, South Korea’s Kim Dae-jung initiated a ‘sunshine policy’, aimed at reconciliation. This culminated in a summit in June 2000, held in Pyongyang. Jong-un’s stance since 2011 has undone most of this good work. Today, South Koreans dream less of reunification and worry more about the collapse of the North – or worse.
Modern Seoul (Image by Leeyan Kym N. Fontano)