CHAPTER 13
ROBOTS ARE THE STUFF of many movies and many worrying predictions about the future. Robots will become more intelligent than us and kill us. There will be few jobs in the future as robots will take them. Driverless cars will revolutionise transport and lead to huge job losses. Well, guess what, at least some of this is coming true. Should we be afraid? Very afraid? Or should we embrace all of this and become freer and happier as a result?
The scaremongerers have been out in force when it comes to robots. The fear that robots will destroy jobs and leave masses of people idle (and as we well know, the devil finds work for idle hands to do) has been with us for decades and is as old as automation itself. And yet, from the Luddites on, the fears have eventually been proven to be wrong, with economies actually ending up stronger than before because of technology. But still, the Bank of England’s chief economist recently predicted that robots threaten 15 million jobs in the UK.
But what jobs are most at risk? Obviously we see this already where any kind of repetitive job that can be automated has been replaced by machines, notable examples being in car manufacturing and retail. But more generally, job losses may be evident in places you hadn’t thought of. Scientists themselves may be at risk. Recently, in a collaboration between Aberystwyth and Cambridge universities, a robot called Adam discovered new scientific knowledge1. The robot was able to design an experiment, carry it out and then interpret the results. Meanwhile, another robot called Eve working in Manchester University has been trying to identify anti-malarial drugs2.
Often these robots perform repetitive analyses, say, on millions of different drugs, adding them to experimental systems that resemble disease (on cells taken from patients, for example) and trying to find ones that work. They still need to be given a question and programmed to solve it, though, so there will still be a function for at least a few humans.
The second area that is somewhat surprisingly at risk is entertainment. You would think that machines could never disrupt the worlds of art and music, where to be creative needs huge insight and that thing in music called ‘soul’. The art of performing is a direct connection between the performer on the stage and the audience, where something magical happens that a robot couldn’t replace. Right? Well yes, until you build a highly effective hologram. In 2012 a hologram of Tupac Shakur performed in Las Vegas, 16 years after his death.
EVEN THOUGH HE HAD BEEN DEAD FOR 16 YEARS, IN 2012 TUPAC COULD STILL PLAY ‘LIVE’ IN THE FORM OF A HOLOGRAM.
Similarly, Abba have been approached on numerous occasions to reform, and almost did some years ago with the temptation of a pay cheque of $1 billion dollars, which they said they would use to fund a hospital. The deal fell apart, however. But now they are about to go on the road virtually, in the form of very effective holograms that really do look as if they are performing on stage. Mamma Mia! Will people go and watch them? The Abba tour, with all of its state-of-the-art technology, is a real testing ground for this technology, given the appetite the fans have to see Abba in one form or another. It’s only a matter of time before we see holograms of U2 performing, and the first song they perform will no doubt be ‘Even Better Than the Real Thing’.
Art is also being performed by machines with artificial intelligence. This is termed ‘generative art’, where robots endlessly create paintings or music, out-producing any human. Instead of humans ‘mashing up’ songs, as for example happened on the Beatles’ Love album, maybe machines will do it and extract even more out of the Beatles back catalogue.
THE DA VINCI SURGICAL SYSTEM IS MADE BY THE AMERICAN COMPANY INTUITIVE SURGICAL.
Another area where robots are increasingly being used is medicine. Right now, robots can diagnose a disease and then prescribe the correct medicine, and even perform surgery. It’s just a matter of detecting the indicators of the disease and then, from a vast amount of data, issuing the most effective therapy. Medicine could become a long list of diseases on one side of the page, and the various treatments on the other, with robotic doctors figuring it all out.
But one profession where humans will most likely still be needed is nursing. A career like nursing is in fact the perfect mixture of almost everything a machine finds difficult: fine motor skills (e.g. putting a line into a vein), specialist knowledge, a wide variety of potential complications in the course of the job, and the need to have empathy and put on a friendly face. This means that the profession of nursing is likely to persist.
It will be the doctors who will become unwanted, while the nurses will thrive. Doctors are very expensive to train and hire, which means they are in the front line for replacement. They also make mistakes, being only human. An estimated 215,000 people died in 2013 in the US from medical errors3. One interesting statistical study has shown that when doctors go on strike the death rate goes down4. The so-called Da Vinci robot can perform surgeries no human can because of its high precision. It can be remotely operated, allowing a surgeon in one hospital to perform an operation in another. The future of surgery may therefore be one highly eminent surgeon overseeing multiple operations carried out by robotic surgeons at remote locations. Most impressively, there is Mabu, the personal healthcare companion. Mabu will engage the patient in conversation and pass the data on to doctors, affording the patient (and doctor) a situation where they don’t have to engage with a human being if they don’t want to, and still get treated.
Apart from doctors, there are many aspects of the healthcare industry where we will see more and more robots. The Japanese are especially interested in this, as they have an ageing population: a quarter of their 128 million people are over 65. Innovations there are making life easier for the elderly and their caregivers. A ‘muscle suit’ has been developed that gives the carer extra power when lifting a bed-bound patient. It looks like a backpack and takes off as much as 30 per cent of the strain of lifting someone.
The Japanese have also developed a walking-stick-like device called the ‘LIGHTBOT’ which will guide visually impaired people to their destination, watching out for trip hazards along the way. In a good example of necessity being the mother of invention, it was developed because of a shortage of guide dogs in Japan, and the difficulties of keeping dogs as pets in Tokyo. Another robot that is proving popular is the ‘Robo Nailist’. This is an industrial robot which uses incredible precision to paint people’s nails. Elderly women like it because their hands might shake slightly, making putting on nail varnish a challenge.
Journalism is also under threat. A Chicago-based firm called Narrative Science has a product called Quill. If you enter data structured in a certain way it will produce a convincing and original news story. It is currently in use by some news outlets, and is especially good at generating stories in sport and finance, where the information comes in in a predictable format (e.g. goals scored or stock market prices moving). How do you know that what you are reading right now wasn’t written by a robot … written by a robot … written by a …?
And what about lawyers? That much-maligned profession might also see itself defunct as robot technology advances. Will lawyers be missed? Law should be the ultimate human-only field. Much of the law is concerned with the precision of common language or the interplay between the theoretical world of textbooks and the real world. Or trying to present complex evidence to a jury to convince them of where the truth lies. Robots have trouble with all of these. But a lot of what happens in law is actually surprisingly rote. Conveyancing, drawing up employment contracts and preparing wills can now all be done online. What is clear is that as artificial intelligence progresses, the need for a human lawyer in many situations where they are currently needed will disappear.
But there is good news too. Robots can actually create employment. A recent study showed that the robotics industry currently employs over 200,000 people worldwide, and this is growing as work in artificial intelligence proceeds. The Chinese are yet again leading the way, with multibillion investments from the government to spur on results. And artificial intelligence is already widespread, be it in your smartphone, GPS or heating system. The Chinese want it to be as ubiquitous as electricity. They are planning for a true internet of things, where every device is connected to every other device, and is always learning. The great line is that Google knows more about you than you do, and also if you’re a woman it can also know that you’re pregnant before you do, based on what you are searching for or buying.
Robots have been shown to be responsible for an annual growth of labour productivity and GDP by 0.36 and 0.37 percentage points, respectively, between 1993 and 20075. This translates into 10 per cent of total GDP growth in the countries studied, and 16 per cent of labour productivity growth over that time. And people are getting more comfortable at having robots around. An EU survey revealed that 35 per cent of people would be happy in a driverless car. Fifty-seven per cent believe that drones are a convenient way to transport goods. Bill Gates thinks we should tax them.
One emerging idea is that robots will spare us the need to talk to other people – something some of us would cherish. Silicon Valley Robotics (where else?) has a robot that will check you into your hotel room. Their analysis shows that people enjoy interacting with robots, but what they enjoy even more is not to have a social interaction with someone at a time when they are not feeling sociable. Some hardware stores in the US have OSHbot, a robot that will bring you to the right shelf and initiate a video call with human experts if there are specific issues that it can’t address.
Given that over $3 billion is currently being spent in China on robotics and artificial intelligence, we are bound to see major advances in many areas. The Agricultural Bank of China is rolling out facial recognition at its ATM machines which are highly sophisticated and won’t recognise masks. Fast food places, restaurants and hotels are introducing this technology, and you may soon pay by having your face scanned. In banks it’s called ‘Smile & Pay’: you smile and the ATM pays. Universities are using facial scans to allow students access to their dorms or lecture theatres, with no need for a card swipe. Twenty automated bookstores staffed with robots are opening in Beijing. They are open 24 hours a day. The robot offers ‘precise and humanised’ book suggestions to customers. Staffless convenience stores and supermarkets are also opening around the city. And there’s even a robotic Buddhist monk in a monastery in Beijing called Xian’er who people can consult. He is dressed in a saffron-yellow robe and has a shaved head. His role is to help people who are more connected to their smartphones than they are to their inner selves. He can answer 20 questions displayed on his chest on a touchscreen. Perhaps this will solve the vocational crisis gripping churches around the world. I wonder what the Vatican will make of a robotic priest? Bless me robot, for I have sinned.
ISAAC ASIMOV’S I, ROBOT TELLS THE FICTIONAL STORY OF DR SUSAN CALVIN IN THE 21ST CENTURY AND HER INTERACTION WITH ROBOTS.
We already see robots doing household chores. The vacuuming Roomba or window-washing Windoro are more and more common. There are also stain-removing robots. But caution is needed. Revenge of the robots may have begun. In Australia, a woman put a cleaning robot on the counter in her kitchen to clear up a cereal spill. She switched it off after the job was done. The robot, however, was clearly in despair with its life of drudgery and had an existential crisis. It switched itself back on, went over to the hotplate, pushed over a coffee pot and then sat there until it burst into flames, destroying most of the apartment, in what is recorded as the first robot suicide.
Is there any prospect of robots making us their slaves? This seems unlikely, and safeguards can be built in. Drones going crazy and attacking innocent targets were a concern, but we’re assured there are too many checks and balances to allow that to happen. The term ‘AI takeover’ is used to describe a scenario where computers and robots take control of the planet away from us humans. A typical Hollywood version of this storyline goes something like this: superintelligent robots decide that humans are a risk or a waste of Earth’s resources and so should be killed off. One example of this that is used involves a thought experiment called the ‘paperclip maximiser’, whereby robots that are programmed to make paperclips use all the Earth’s resources to achieve this goal, which might involve eliminating humans, who are a drain on the system and might shut the robots down.
How likely is this? The late Stephen Hawking, Bill Gates and SpaceX founder Elon Musk have all expressed concerns that AI might develop beyond our control, so perhaps we should be worried. There is evidence of robots cooperating with one another. Robots that act together without humans is a scary prospect, especially if they learn and develop. In one study in the US a thousand robots, each the size of a quarter dollar, came together and formed squares and letters6. Ten robotic helicopters (called quadcopters) communicated with each other constantly and avoided collisions. A group of boat robots cooperated in manoeuvres that were highly elaborate. These are self-organising machines, programmed to behave in these ways, and may well become more and more sophisticated.
One thing everyone agrees on is that the future includes driverless cars. This began with companies putting computers in cars to improve engine efficiency. Things got more and more elaborate, and as the airline industry invented the autopilot carmakers began to follow suit. Huge amounts of money are now being spent on research, with Google leading the way with a current spend of $1.1 billion7. Most futurologists are predicting a time when all cars on our roads will be driverless. Experts are saying this will be the last generation to own a car. Driverless cars will revamp our lives, destroy millions of jobs and suddenly be as ubiquitous and transformative as the smartphone8.
It will begin on bus routes in the centre of cities. Lyon already has driverless buses. Driverless cars are predicted to be on our roads in the coming decade. Paris is planning on making the inner part of the city driverless by 2024, when it hosts the Olympics. Initially they will coexist with human-driven cars. Trucks delivering goods will be next. Driverless cars and trucks will mainly run on electricity provided by batteries. The batteries will be solar-powered and will recharge as the vehicles run, by running over charging strips on the roads. There will be a boom in racetracks as a leisure pursuit, where petrol heads will go to burn rubber, since some people will still want to drive. The incentives to have driverless cars will be many, including hefty charges if you should want to drive your car in a city. Thirty per cent of people surveyed have said they would prefer it if the world had driverless cars. Eighty-six per cent said yes to this if insurance was cheaper.
THE FUTURE WILL BELONG TO DRIVERLESS CARS.
Google are ahead of the competition. Their self-driving cars have now been involved in 12 accidents while covering more than 1.7 million miles during the past six years, according to the company9. The cars have eight cameras on board and 12 ultrasonic sensors. They also carry a ‘prior’. This is a Google map of the area, which the car constantly compares to the current situation. Any changes mean it can react instantly. It’s likely therefore that all driverless cars will have a prior map loaded into the system. I saw Google’s driverless car in action when I was on the Google campus. A blind man (or at least a man with a stick and dark glasses) got into the passenger seat and the car drove off. It drove around the block and into the car park. The blind man got out to rapturous applause.
The predictions when they are fully adopted are startling. First the total number of vehicles on our roads will drop by 90 per cent. This is because they are so efficient and will act like a constant taxi service, dropping off and picking up. It’s only a small step to turn Uber into a fully automated taxi service. As they will be taxis, car ownership will plummet. Why own a car when you can summon one to take you anywhere you want to go at an affordable price? The predicted saving for the average person who gets rid of their own car and uses driverless cars is €6,000 per annum.
Accidents will also plummet. These are usually caused by slow reaction times, tailgating and rubbernecking, all human flaws. One estimate puts the drop at 90 per cent – this represents 1.2 million lives. Imagine, 1.2 million people won’t die from traffic accidents once driverless cars are widespread. This will also mean a saving of $190 billion. There will be some accidents, but the technology is developing at such a rate that these will be few and far between, and most likely won’t be caused directly by the driverless car malfunctioning. Since the cars will all be electric, pollution levels will plummet. Traffic jams will be a thing of the past, as the position and speed of each and every car in a network will be known, and speeds adjusted to ensure a smooth flow of traffic. Congestion will effectively be abolished, as much of that is caused by people trying to find parking or getting lost.
The cars will be optimally spaced and run at a density that will make them seem like trains with carriages. The need for parking will also be a thing of the past, as the cars will rarely stop, or at least will only stop to let you out. There are currently 150,000 cars parked in Paris city centre. Imagine what the freeing up of that space would do – new parks, playgrounds, walks. Instead of a car taking up space, leaking oil and sitting there, there will now be a lovely park. Travelling to work in a driverless car will be a pleasure. You will be able to have your coffee, do your make-up, check out the news, or just sleep. Driverless cars will be a particular boon to older people. They will become much more mobile, travelling to see their friends and family in comfort. Disabled people will also have an opening up of possibilities. Driverless cars will also help teenagers. Imagine, the taxi service that many parents turn into during the teen years will no longer be needed.
A THOUGHT EXPERIMENT CALLED THE TROLLEY PROBLEM. IS IT MORE ETHICAL TO INTERVENE TO PULL THE LEVER OR TAKE NO ACTION?
So where are the downsides? Well, there are some. There is a fear that a driverless car might make an ‘ethical’ decision in certain circumstances. Let us say for example that the car might swerve to miss a child but in doing so will kill the occupants who comprise, say, four adults. What decision will the car make? Kill the child and spare the adults or let the adults die and save the child? Some predict it will be possible to deal with these kinds of dilemmas. For example, MIT are using a website called Moral Machine which allows you to input different scenarios for driverless cars. You make a moral decision based on a given scenario, and then the programme compares your decision to other people, possibly correcting a bad decision. This might run automatically in the driverless car, leading to a decision on a given situation based on a consensus of how a human would react10. A second fear is that people won’t take them up, as they prefer the power of a petrol engine and actually enjoy driving. Price may sort out the former and racetracks the latter.
But the big downside is likely to be job losses. The existing automotive industry is huge in all developed countries. For Germany it makes up fully one-third of the German economy. Truck and taxi drivers will see their jobs disappear. Carmakers will be taken over by technology giants such as Google, who have the money and the information to make it work. Governments will lose out on parking fines, speeding fines and petrol tax, so an important stream of income will go. One industry that is also predicted to suffer a lot is the insurance industry. For some of them, over 50 per cent of their income comes from car insurance, the people in the cars and the people who might get hurt. That will no longer be needed to the same extent. This means insurance companies will have less money to invest in other businesses, slowing economic growth.
All of these concerns are felt to be overstated, and certainly not insurmountable. Insurance companies will surely find something else to insure. We have some records of what happened when the horseless carriages first appeared, to the horror of people working in the horse trade. A man with a red flag had to walk in front of a car back then. Lots of jobs were lost, but look what happened. A massive new industry was spawned, enriching the lives of millions and millions. This is happening again, but now without the risk of destroying lives and the planet.
We can look forward to a world full of robots helping us in so many ways, checking our health, painting our nails and driving us in a most leisurely way to anywhere we want to go. We will sit there in comfort watching reruns of great Grand Prix races, reminding us of a bygone age when the mass of people worked in jobs of quiet desperation, often stuck for hours in traffic jams while polluting the Earth with fumes. Roll on robots, we humans have nothing to lose but our chains.
TWO OF THE WORLD’S FAVORITE ROBOTS, C-3PO AND R2D2, HELPING HUMANS OUT.